Part 1: Stat Kids Head Expodes Video At 11

This has been a rough 48 hours or so for the dedicated Stat Kids.


You know prospects were bound to be traded and that can just rip the guts out of a Stat Kid. Oh The Value. Oh The Rentals. Oh Ned being Ned. Sky is falling, stuff like that. 


Check this poor kid out. Seems he was a little upset over the Brandon League trade.

JohnM 

Leon Landry is a third round draft pick from 2009. He is currently ranked 20th on MLB.com top 20 dodger prospects. He is described as a player who can hit for average and not strike out. He doesn't have a ton of homer power, but can hit the ball in the gaps for doubles and triples. He has good instincts in the outfield and on the basepaths allowing his speed to play up even more. He's a very good defender who could profile as a top of the order guy in the future.

JohnM 

 efb Landry could become an above average 5 tool outfielder

Of course John has never seen Landry play.


JohnM 

 Deuce  phattonez7 He was good in 09 and 11. And he may even get things back on track, but even if he does the most value he can get us as a TWO MONTH RENTAL is a .5 WAR. And that is not worth a prospect with a decent upside in a farm  system that is lacking good position players.

JohnM 

 phattonez7  JohnM You regard him far too little. League sucks. He's about a 0.2-0.4 WAR and if he regresses to his xFIP he could be even worse. That is not worth a prospect with any kind of upside. I'm not opposed to training Landry or anyone in the dodger farm system, as long as we don't trade them for crap.

Decent upside. If you have a good cry over trading your 20th or 30th best prospect - depending on who you talk to - for a major league pitcher, you're in for a very painful baseball hobby.


I think League improves the middle of the Dodger bullpen. He's an upgrade over Lindblom, Javy, Elbert and Wright. That's not nothing in a pennant race. Tragic Illness thinks League is just a GUY. Of course what Tragic does best is disparage players and so he doesn't give the GUY credit at all. We'll see how that works out.


Baseball isn't about building the most complete bunch of minor leaguers who will never play in the big leagues. It's about winning. This is a trade, however small, that helps the Dodgers' cause.


One of John's friends in the chat room tells it better than me:


JeffKlein 

 JohnM WAR is only useful as a macro stat over several seasons - there's too much variation - and it's not the end all be all.  You can't live your baseball life by Sabermetrics.  When we are playing the Giants and the momentum shifts towards SF and League comes in and kills their momentum, what stat are you going to use for that?  What stat to you use when someone like Hairston steps it up playing well above his talent level for a month while Kemp is on the DL.

Remember George Sherrill, he had a great WAR the season he came over to the Dodgers.  And look what happened.  WAR means almost nothing in the short term.

League is a veteran presence on the mound, more effective and reliable than our other veteran relievers like Wright.  League might come over and totally crap out.  But it's not like we gave up much anyway.

JONAH POWER POLL.


Interesting stuff here.

Trayvon Robinson Come On Down

The thing about Stat Boys is even when proven wrong by, you know, actual events, they'll argue until their parent's cellar burns down around them. 


I laughed out loud yesterday when I read someone still mad about Ned trading Trayvon Robinson for Tim Fedx, Stephen Barney Fife and Juan Rodriguez. The argument then and today is still it doesn't matter how the trade actually, you know, turns out, the point is the Dodgers didn't get enough value back for one of their top prospects.


WAH.


Tim Fedx will most likely be the Dodger backup catcher next year, Fife has won two important games this year for the Dodgers and Rodriguez is still at Top 20 prospect in the Dodger organization. Meanwhile, Trayvon continues to do what he does best - strike out.


Ned, who we all know has a spotty record, had a reasonable explanation for the situation. The Dodgers needed a catching prospect. Trayvon had been passed up by Jerry "I'm Still In The Minors" Sands. A couple pitchers thrown in. Why not. Obviously the Dodger organization didn't think Trayvon was going to be a star otherwise they wouldn't have traded him. I bought into it just because I had no expectations for Trayvon. And I knew it wasn't Ned doing the scouting.


"But they didn't get value!" 


Is that the same as it didn't look good on paper? Whose paper? What color is the paper? Who gave you the paper? Did you even see the paper? Maybe Stat Boy Patron Saint Keith Law told you what was on the paper and you bit. How does anyone on AssClown Island know anything about prospects except what they read on their 'puter.


No one knows what's going to happen with prospects except that only a tiny percentage will ever start a major league game.


I expect a lot of these Stat Boys try to emulate Keith Law. Here's what he had to say on the matter.


The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fifeprobably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.


Keith Law is a professional. Don't try this at home. BTW who told Mr. Law that Fife throws anything close to 95.


Poor Jerry Sands


One of the reasons I applaud players like Luis Cruz and Elian Herrera at every opportunity is that they never got anything handed to them. They persevered and when they finally got a chance showed that they could play Major League baseball.


For that they can't be mentioned without the accompanying lifetime minor leaguer reference or something insulting like that.


I'm even more bitter about it when Elian gets sent down even though in many, many ways he's a better player than Juan Uribe. That's some giants mounds of BS right there.


Elian may never get to the Majors again, yet, come hell or high water Juan Uribe gets to keep sitting on the bench offering nothing at all to the Dodgers.


So now Jerry Sands hits two grand slams and people start talking again about putting him in left field. This Spring the Dodgers were begging him to win the left field job. Instead, he sucked. He got another chance early in the season. He sucked.


I want Jerry Sands to succeed but now he's got to prove it. He's hitting below the Mendoza line (.290 is the Mendoza line in that league) for the Isotopes. Some people speculate that it's his stubbornness that's holding him back. I don't know. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't get a September call up. The Dodgers might be pissed off enough with him to give him the Ivan DeJesus Jr. treatment.


Don't Do It Ned


I think the Dodgers need Dempster. But if the cost is Alfonso Soriano and any significant part of his contract run away Ned. FAST. The thought of paying Soriano, even Uribe money for the next two years is frightening. Hey maybe it pays off. Still, frightening.


Just because the new Dodgers regime has a lot of cash it doesn't mean it should potentially sacrifice some important free agent signing money. Hanley, obviously yes. Alfonso, please no.

Watching The LA/SF Game On Sunday

Glad to see the Miami Fish are already writing poems and singing songs for Mr. Eo Evaldi. His new team had better things to say about him than Don Baseball ever did. The Dodgers have to make that trade. Fine. But the Stat Boys never gave EO his due.


Well he doesn't strike out enough people to be good. Idiots.


He only has two pitches. Idiots. 


If they did their scouting somewhere other than on BR looking at one dimensional statistics out there on AssClown Island, well, .... EO obviously has electric stuff and is developing in an obvious learning curve. Making judgements out of context using static stats is, well, unsound. EO may never get there but he definitely has a high ceiling. Check out the Miami Herald on EO.


CRUUUUUUZZZZ.


Ooops, Luis just booted one. I hope that doesn't start the cry for Hanley moving to shortstop. Luis Cruz is yet another Dodger not getting his just accolades from the Dodger Fans - Stat Boy Division. His defense is steady and his offense, well, for shortstops, it's not bad at all.


Stat Boys freak out if an OBP falls below .300. If Luis had 6 more walks mixed into his small sample of stats the Stat Boys would be drooling all over him. Those 6 walks wouldn't have meant much in the overall scheme of things but the key hits he's provided have been monumental in the run-free zone the Dodgers have been living in. 


A shortstop with a .721 OPS is often revered. Because of the thickness of the stat boy goggles they want to move him out of the lineup. Sheesh.


CHADDDDDDDDD


Yes, the "Casual Fans'' have had a problem with Mr. C Bills. I don't mind Chad. He is what he is. But he got into the 8th inning yesterday and he only had two K's. No walks. The game before another good outing. Four K's. No walks.


One of the most over-used stats at AssClown Island is the K/9. Not that it's not a good indicator. It's the belief you can't be good without it. Walks are by far more important. If you're not walking people you always have a chance. If you're walking a lot of people you have no chance.


So Bills gets to the 8th with only a couple K's. The calls from you know where sound like Oh he must have got lucky. Will the noise never stop?.


LUCCCCKKKKY STAATTTS


If the "Lucky Stats'' are based on subjective and generalized calls by statisticians how are they worth anything meaningful. If that's all you got you might as well stick with "luck evens out."

Playing Chicken Is Fun But Everything Still Points To Dempster

OK, the Dodgers said no because they have the leverage. Dempster now says he'll go anywhere because he's an AssClown. The Braves said See Ya. The Cubs say Atlanta is still an option. Dempster is never going to sign with the Cubs. The Cubs now hate Dempster and the Dodgers. Blah, Blah, Blah.


Testosterone aside I think the Dempster still ends up in Los Angeles.


Now a different result could happen five minutes from now but unless someone puts extreme buttheadedness before business this is the logical outcome.


Garza was a solid option but once he got hurt that trade went poof for  now. Unlikely to be any other Hanley situations out there where a team wants to get rid of the guy so bad they'll do a giant salary dump. There might be another hitter out there that falls into that category but not pitchers.


The Dodgers don't have the goods to compete for the Miami and Tampa Bay pitchers. They couldn't compete on Greinke. Not many options. Everyone should just find a way to save some face and make the Dempster deal. And by Tuesday I think - I hope - everyone comes to that conclusion. 


Please no D pitchers. Just play nice and get Dempster. And please don't do the negotiation for extension gambit. Don't sign any more pitchers for next year until after the season. Please.


Now regarding the position player the Dodgers seek. That could be a shocker. That player could come from anywhere. I've proposed Josh W. all along but nobody is talking about it. People talk about Shane and I think it makes sense but the Karma potential is bad. There are a number of nasty contracts out there that the Dodgers might decide on. But, you know, there are only so many bad contracts the Dodgers can support without damaging their opportunities in free agency. 


Also, several teams are now precariously perched on that seller/buyer tight rope and so there will be new potential trade candidates every 24 hours or so. Or at least that will be the talk. Boys will be boys so I expect the Dempster thing to go right down to the wire. Every one has to twist the knife a few more times before every one is happy.


I Like Jonah Keri. 


I think you can say Jonah Keri is a stat boy. So why does VODF pimp a stat boy? Because he's a professional, not an amateur. He's sees a wide playing field. And he's a sweet writer. Oh did I forget he knows something about baseball.


Here's his take on the Hanley trade. It's chock full of advanced metrics for you amateur stat boys so take a look. Have I mentioned how much I like the writing at Grantland? Probably.


BRING THE HEAT


I don't know how many of you have tried to do something very skillful and physical while in a stadium before thousands of people with the temperature over 100 degrees and the humidity gawd awful. Raise your hands. Right, none. 


The Dodger starters struggled because of the extreme weather conditions. Most of them started strong and died in the middle innings. For people to say they are athletes and should be able to handle that I LAUGH OUT LOUD.


For people who say well the Cardinal pitchers did OK, I LAUGH OUT LOUD. People, people. Try it and then talk to me. Do it for a few seasons and then tell me you don't have an advantage over visitors.


Kershaw, C CAP. No worries.

Hanley/Dodger Honeymoon Well Under Way

(I expect the Dodgers will be completing a trade any moment now, but we'll carry on anyway.)


There's a lot of love in the air for the newly-acquired Mr. Hanley. 


He clearly looks dangerous when in the batter's box. The whispers about his dropping numbers have mostly been about slowing bat speed whether it be from a shoulder injury or some other reason. It's always possible that the torrent of talent that once naturally sprang from his body has slowed down and what was once effortless is now a little harder to accomplish and he just doesn't know it yet.


Still, he's a legit threat in the middle of the lineup and that's where he should stay. If Hanley regains half the stat level he once boasted he'll be worth the $35 M and EO especially given third base is such a big, black hole. If he doesn't the Dodgers will once again pay the ugly cost of wishing upon a former star. I'm going to put the odds at 60-40 that Hanley doesn't drop another big nasty egg on the Dodgers.


One place he surely WON'T help is on defense.


Donnie Baseball being the stubborn guy he is will definitely cram Hanley into the starting shortstop hole. And D's main reason for doing this is to create the dreaded "Flexibility." I like Don. He's a good manager but he does have some blind spots. This one being Hanley at SS allows him to mix and match with Uribe, Kennedy, Cruz, Hairston, etc., at 3B.


JESUS CHRIST DON!. Three of those guys should never play 3B in the Majors again. And the other one doesn't want to. He hate it. OK, I'm just saying, why put a bad defender at maybe the most important defensive position on the field. Because that's what a player's manager does I guess. Please put Hanley at 3B and lock the door. Not going to happen. Otherwise, how would Uribe get in the lineup? One of the real mysteries. C'mon Don.


Nice, the Dodgers finally have a real situational lefty. Really needed that. Now comes Dempster and then one other position player. 


HOPEFULLY THE STAT BOYS WON'T GIVE UP AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE THREE LOSSES AND WON'T WANT TO SELL OFF ALL THE DODGERS BECAUSE IT'S THE SMART THING TO DO.


In an equally frustrating note, Don Baseball is making it very clear that Dee Gordon is not a lock to get his shortstop job back. I guess that's healthy, really. Gordon should have to play for his job but the future All-Star makes the Dodger's potential greater when he's playing. Nobody talks much about Dee getting to a lot of balls that Cruz hasn't been able to get to. And Hanley surely won't be able to get to. Yes, Dee may throw the ball into the dugout for a few more months but his talent and natural ability is breathtaking. 


One of the most Assclown things I read on the Interweb is how Dee Gordon is the worst shortstop in baseball. Why? Because the stats show it. This is one of the best examples of how one dimensional stats taken out of context reveal utter stupidity.


Sorry to see EO go but it's the opportunity cost. The Dodgers have the extra $36 Mil hanging around so that sealed the deal. The Fish knew what they were doing when they picked EO. 


TRAGIC HEROES


Happy to see THE REAL PAUL standing up to some of the Stat Boys about there possibly being factors in baseball that affect outcomes that can't be STATICIZED.


And always my former BUD VIETNAMDODGER for occasionally smacking down the nerds about stats. There's not a stat in the world that can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Life is in REAL TIME BABY! LIVE IT!

Way Too Early To Call This A Great Trade

First of all, the Dodgers pretty much had to make the Hanley trade for several reasons even though it could very well blow up in their face.


Secondly, I hope Hanley turns over a new leaf and stops being a butthead, regains the form he hasn't had for two years and plays an important role in getting the Dodgers to the playoffs.


Thirdly, I laugh out loud at the stat boys who are forever blasting Ned over a million here or a couple million there and now say almost nothing about the $40 Million the Dodgers have thrown up in the air in hopes Hanley regains his form. Tragic Illness has written thousands of words and beat a herd of dead horses about C Cap and others over paltry amounts. Now when it comes to a financial risk only a desperate Dodger team would make the $40 Million or so hardly gets mentioned.


Fourthly, when is the last time a former star has had two bad years in a row and come back and regained his form. I'm looking at you Andruw Jones.


Fifthly, I'll bet anyone that can post $1,000 that Nate Eovaldi will be a better major league pitcher than Zach Lee.


Sixthly, wait a minute. I have to interject something here. I just read from the fountain of silliness Phattonez7. He just made the argument that Hanley's two below average years is mostly due to luck because that's what his advanced metrics say. Quit it Phatt, you're killing me.


Sixthly, habitually disgruntled players usually are on their best behavior when they join a new team. Hopefully, that will mean we see Hanley at his best whatever that currently is. Plus, gives Donnie Baseball and Kemp a chance to mold him the best they can.


Seventhly, the Dodgers did not make a stunningly smart move here. What they did was throw $40 Million at another baseball team for the player that team was really, really hoping to get rid of.


Eighthly, I wish I had a dollar for every time I read stat boys talking crap about trading for players that use to be good.


Ninethly, if I was the Cubs I'd tell the Dodgers and Dempster to shove it. I'd tell the Dodgers beat the Braves offer or get lost. Mr. Dempster we're calling your bluff. Hope you have a nice time rotting away with our horrible club this summer.


Tenthly, the Dodgers had to do this trade to compete this year. They had to way overpay ($40 M). They needed to show those damn "Casual Fans" that they'd spend crazy for the good of the order. It builds excitement in the fan base. Best of all it made the Stat Boys act like fans rather than the metric citing bobbleheads they normally are.

SELL All The DODGERS

Yes I'm going to scribble out a few more posts after all.


Admittedly, I was a little bummed by the way things were going. The Dodgers were losing every game there for awhile. The stat kids were saying stupid stuff like trade Capuano and Eovaldi because this season's over. The fair weather fans were picking at and kicking almost every Dodger and member of the organization. 


Sickening really. I give WBBsAs some credit, although he's one of the worst dead-horse beaters in the chatrooms, he's also a true fan and unwilling to give up hope.


Tragic Illness had given up with the Dodgers two games out of the playoffs. He said he was happy to take an unpopular position. I hope he was just as happy to take a stupid and cowardly position.


If someone is willing to give up on any season when the going suddenly gets tough or you fall a little ways out of the top spot, well, you don't want someone like that on your team.


For being quitters all the stat kids should be shipped off to AssClown Island. Give them a dial-up connection and let them tell epic stories to each other about BABIPS, FIPS and the day they lost their rWAR.


YOU KNOW YOU'RE A STAT KID IF... 
YOU WOULDN'T TRADE ZACK LEE FOR ARAMIS RAMIREZ IN A HEARTBEAT.


Attention Eric Stephen!!!


Good Ole VODF contributed a good-sized financial gift to your spring training trip because you're a hard working son-of-a-gun. Stati--ness aside, I respect warriors.


Funny to note, I was banned from your chatroom on my second visit. Usually it takes 6 or 7 visits for VODF to get banned. It was definitely a premature banning even though banning was inevitable.


The Trueblue chatroom is a smarter, older, cliquier and a much more in-love-with-itself version of the Tragic Illness chatroom. Meaner, nastier in nature. Not as unknowing about baseball. But people who are all clearly happy with themselves and their cliquiness. 


Too bad Eric. You do good work. It would serve you well to have your chatroom moderated by people with a little more even-handedness. I would still be banned with good reason but you'd have a chatroom more welcoming to regular folk.


A Quick Catch-up


N. Eovaldi continues to develop. A cutter and curve ball now added to the mix. Upward trending EO. He's a keeper. 


Mr. Cruz. A fine story and contribution. But Dee will be playing shortstop when he's fully recovered. Period. Dee the future all-star should be something special in the not-to-distant-future.


A.J. Ellis continues his alarming accumulation of K's. He's now struck out 17 times in July. He's got 4 walks during that period. Glad the Dodgers have him. Glad he's not leading off or batting second.


Hairston should be the Dodgers starting 3B with lots of time off.


Rivera playing 1B against right-handed pitching is clearly a Donnie Baseball blindspot.


Please trade Z. Lee for Aramis. The opportunity cost is well worth it.

NEW POST COMING TONIGHT

Yes MFYG you were right. You ARE the MAN.

You Know You're An Amateur Stat Boy When ...

1. You refer to your make-believe girlfriend as "My Lady"


2. You need a change of underwear after finding out some 3rd tier celebrity acknowledged one of your 500 tweets of the day.


3. You spend a minimum 8 hours on a baseball blog site pounding in non-sensical posts so at the end of the day your group of 7 Internet friends can chortle how the site got more than 1000 posts that day.


4. When you refer to your "Ex" you're talking about the girl you chased around the playground in 5th Grade.


5. Your knowledge of baseball is only surpassed by your ... well ... I don't know what it could be surpassed by because you obviously know everything there is to know.


6. You constantly beat baseball's dead horses because what you don't know about baseball could refill the Pacific Ocean.


7. You delight in insulting, disparaging, and ridiculing people because you can get away with it down in your basement where, you know, you can't get bitch slapped and really don't have to know a damn thing.


8. Your entire life revolves around a tiny group of like-minded folks who get can get together every day and talk about how stupid everyone else is. And of course take turns hitting the like button for each other because nobody else will.






AND WITH THAT ENDS THE 30-DAY RANT OF VODF. I HOPE YOU (Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness) RECOGNIZED THE NASTY, OVER-THE-TOP BILGE THAT YOU FOLKS PUMP OUT EVERY DAY. AND I HOPE SOME DAY YOU FIND A LIFE THAT DOESN'T REVOLVE AROUND HOW PSEUDO-SNARKY YOU CAN BE AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS. CARRY ON.


ONE last thing. Can't help myself. But it's news. Turns out I agree on one thing with Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. He is HALF the writer Jon Weisman is. (You do have TWICE the HAT SIZE though but i digress.) Don't let your kiddie friends talk you out of your day job. One trick ponies don't fare well in the real world. Once again the REAL sports writers work out of GRANTLAND. If you want comparisons that's where you should be studying. Not to mention Bill S. is the most successful blogger in the history of the world. This advice comes from a former award-winning, reporter, writer, editor and publisher. Good luck.

Stat Boys: Nightmare At Trade Deadline

No. 1, I think we can all agree that nobody wants to overpay for players that are just rentals. OK? Really. Nobody is for that. Even the Dead Horse Beaten Corpse of Ned Colletti. NOBODY IS FOR THAT.  Not Ned, not Steve Lyons, not the dreaded "Casual Fans." CAN WE AGREE? It's not everyone wants to overpay except the Stat Boys because they're smarter than everyone else.


Ned's never had a sensible baseball boss to question his moves. Now he does. Stan K. does not want to overpay for players that are just pennant race rentals. I hope we've got that cleared up. Nobody.


No. 2, EVERYONE has a different idea of what is overpaying, the value of the playoffs and what exactly helps the Dodgers build for the future. This is a fantastically gray area. It's also complicated. Stat Boys don't ever have to worry about things like ticket sales, people's jobs, salary, risk/reward, any of that. 


Some people think trading Gould for Carlos Lee was an example of the rental overpayment problem. Me, not so much. The Dodgers were way out in front way back then and Lee represented an upgrade at 1B. But I could easily live without him, too.


I don't think Gould will ever be part of a Major League rotation. I could be wrong. Lee has been an upgrade so far for Miami but he's not going to be their difference maker. Nobody is right at this stage.


Tragic Illness believes Dee Gordon is an unproven player as well as being injury prone and therefore the Dodgers should pay for Jimmy Rollins. Helps short term and long term. I think this is a clown statement for several reasons but that's how far apart people can be on these things.


No. 3, The trade market is ever changing. What applied six weeks ago may not apply now. And when it comes to trading, supply, demand, leverage and skill at horse trading are the key factors not how the advance metrics add up.


For example I told recent teenager, The Real Paul, that the Red Sox would ask the Dodgers for a lot to get Youk. And that was true. Team always ask for a lot. Anyone who does transactions or negotiates in real life knows about how those things work. Anyone that is that has done more than trade baseball cards and bootleg DVDs.


But Paul, that was near or at the time Youk got hurt. When the majority of people were still thinking he could play. Then Youk gets hurt. Then Youk can't get to the Mendoza line. Then the scouts say Youk sucks. Then he becomes a clubhouse problem. Then his replacement blows up. By his final days in Boston he's only worth the Ely/Sellers comp. 


As soon as he gets hurt his value started going down. Then it was follow the bouncing ball to the ground floor. By that time they could have probably got him for Gould. But the entire trade value situation was totally different than before.


If the Dodgers had traded for Youk at that point the Stat Kids would have pouted and thrown tantrums until the sun went down and afterwards. They'd call it Ned being Ned. Even though Ned doesn't make the final decision anymore. Now in hindsight maybe the Dodgers should have traded that comp but nobody was saying it then.


Trade value is a constantly moving target. What you might be able to get one day could be entirely different next week due to supply, demand and leverage. If you're going to go all Bozo The Clown at least try to show that you know something about the big picture. 

Stats Boys Call "Casual Fans" Cause Of Dodger Problems

The stupidest and most insulting thing Stat Boys (again only amateur stat boys, not the professionals) do is how they disdainfully refer to the "Casual Fan." 


They are so in love with themselves and their little clique of mega minds they feel it's their obligation to set the "Fans" straight. 


That pitcher is overrated because the "Casual Fans" overrates wins. I hate "Casual Fans." If it weren't for the "Casual Fans" the team wouldn't make those bad trades at the deadline so they can, like, try to win. If those "Casual Fans" didn't do the wave the games my parents take me to wouldn't be so bad. We hate the "Casual Fans" because they're like, you know, not smart like us.


F U and the pocket protector you rode in on.


Sit over there in your basements happily skyping each other about the brilliant moves you would make if you were the GM. You subtract all the real world factors surrounding a Major League Baseball Franchise and make universe-changing decisions because, you know, you're so brilliant. One blogger said today that if it was him he'd give up on this season and start building for the future. And the first thing he would do would be to trade Chris Capuano because that would be the most intelligent thing to do.


Two games out of first place, that would be the most intelligent thing to do? Eh, has anyone ever given up two games out of first. I wouldn't. Would anyone who actually ever had something to do with the team? Missed the chapter on Giving Up in fantasy baseball.

Tragic Illness: I’ve said a few times that my highest priority is not making the playoffs in 2012, it’s trying to create an organization which can be a consistent contender for years to come. That doesn’t always correspond with what the casual fan wants to see, since they they see a team in position to make a playoff run and think that going for it all right now is the only option, but taking an unpopular position is fine with me.




This may be the silliest thing I've read all month:

Mike Petriello 1769 pts

 JeffKlein  negan Chase Headley is one of the five best third basemen in baseball.

Shawn Tolleson Reboot

When Shawn was called up everybody wanted to see the guy who had dominated the minor leagues for the last two years. I know I did.

But he couldn't find his control the first four times he got a chance. The fifth time it looked as if someone told him to get the ball over or else. He did. He got shelled. And down he went. Well he never actually went down to the minors because of the ever-changing roster issues.

At that time command looked like the culprit. Nerves would make sense but he got opportunities and none looked like what we've been reading about.

But since his reprieve he's pitched three plus innings culminating in last night's dominating performance. That suggests Mr. Tolleson is getting use to the Bigs and that nerves could have been the issue.

EO The Man, The Myth

I think all the Stat Boys are now officially off the Nate Eovaldi bandwagon. The guy gets less strikeouts than Zito! The guy only has two pitches!

Idiots!

Eo has been thrust into the fire because the so-called Dodger minor league pitching strength is a myth or at least overhyped. None of them can pitch in the majors today, tomorrow or probably even next year.

Eovaldi is 22 and learning on the job. His control is lacking and he's using major leagues games to try and develop a third and fourth pitch. And even with that he's able to get major league hitters out. He's had more good games than bad.

The K stat is overrated by the Stat Boys. Well the great pitchers 

all have high K rates. Duh. I don't think anyone is calling Nate great at this point. Many good pitchers do just fine without striking out a man per inning. The walk is the really important stat. If you're walking a lot of people you can't win. EO is walking too many people because his command isn't good. Still he's out there trying and he'll definitely get better. And maybe when he does he'll make all the little Stat Boys happy with a few extra strike outs.

Besides what's the alternative. Stat Boys hate rentals. You can't have it both ways.

Which reminds me Stat Boys never like any mid season trades. None that I can remember. They may after the fact when they have to change their tune. Why? Because they're so fvcking brilliant! Didn't you know?

You Know The Apocalypse Kicks Off Next Week When...

1. The Diamondbacks trade Justin Upton to the Dodgers


2. Don Mattingly bats A.J. Ellis leadoff


3. Frank McCourt rides on the Dodger float at the Rose Parade


4. Ned gets hired to GM another Major League Baseball Team


5. Anybody takes Any of the Dodger prospects for Anyone good


6. Stat boys find girlfriends other than of the plastic variety


7. Tragic Illness says something nice about Aaron "Big Game" Harang


8. Juan Uribe hits a triple

Stat Boy Favorites Never Seem To Regress

A.J. Ellis is a fine player. I hope he's the Dodger starting catcher next year. He's not an All-Star catcher, he's not a great hitter but he's smart and can work the count when the pitchers aren't coming right after him with good stuff. And he's a fantastic handler of the pitching staff.


In the last 10 games Ellis has struck out 14 times and walked just 3 times. If he weren't a stat boy favorite he'd be in the midst of a regression. But because he's a favored son he's just in a little slump.


Neither is true. The pitchers have adjusted to Ellis' way of hitting. He can no longer sit back and let a pitcher walk him. He'll never lose that ability to walk because he's really smart but now he's got to adjust his strategy. And as he's not a great hitter it won't be that easy to do. The outcome will not be determined by stats in any way, shape or form.


OBP is a fine stat. I think it's universally recognized as one of the better indicators. But it over weights walks. A hit is better than a walk in many instances. Fortunately Don Baseball doesn't subscribe to the ridiculous stat boy notion that because A.J. has a high OBP that makes him an obvious lead off hitter. He'll have a lot better chance to work on his adjustments in the not-so-pressure packed part of the lineup. 


Rob Neyer, the super sabre pro, says that no one can predict what a player will do on a year-to-year basis. His excellence is that he understands baseball and can see the whole playing field not just the black and white of baseball numbers.


The world does not exist in black and white. The Stat boys exist there all by themselves. They apparently lost the gray spectrum early in life. They may find it again when they get older and more experienced. The gray spectrum is where the real world lives.

News Flash Mark Ellis Now A Stat Boy Favorite

I can remember when the Stat Boys were calling the other Ellis an over-the-hill relic that can probably still play a little defense. Another Ned travesty. But now Mark Ellis suddenly is a major league hitter according to the Boys. And none of them ever mention the word regression when it comes to him. I'm sure Mark Ellis is relieved.

Sure Glad Pressure Doesn't Play A Role In Baseball


Everyone needs to remember that Kenley Jansen hasn't been pitching very long. In many ways he's still learning. And there are certainly tons of things he hasn't seen or experienced. When one of those one-off things happens it can make someone look bad out of proportion to the actual event.


Kenley made an innocent inexperienced mistake. He didn't call timeout because it didn't occur to him that he needed to. The Padre runner made a courageous decision and in doing so put extreme pressure on the Dodgers. Jansen reacted poorly an threw high. A.J. Ellis can not be tagging a runner without the ball. His first job is to catch the ball. Pressure. The umpire jumped in an overlooked the fact that Ellis didn't have the ball slowing Jansen's reaction. The umpire missed the ball because everything was happening so fast. Pressure.


This is an extreme example of what the stat boys are missing in the game of baseball on an everyday basis. On many plays during the course of a game something situational affects the play. Very few times is it as dramatic as the Kenley play. A core strategy in baseball is to find ways to put pressure on the opposition. In fact this is true in almost every sport. Different kinds of pressure evoke different reactions. And every reaction is different because every player is a human and can react differently. 


This is not a myth. This is not some crap that traditional baseball people make up. This is the nature of sport. 

2012 Dodger Stat Boy T-Shirt Collection

Talk Shit
Stat Boys
 & you'll get
Bitch Slapped






This T-Shirt reminds me of what might happen if some of these bloggers brought their legend-in-their-own-mind crap to the real world. Like this http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2012/07/14/marcus-hayes-is-so-doing-it-wrong/12293#respond. Someone my just go all Old Testament on their ass.

It’s Elian “The Real Deal” Herrera’s Fault

Elian arrived in the majors with the ability to work the count much better than most major leaguers. Switch hitter. Can play almost every position well. He was the guy that was going to force Ned to DFA one of the relics that could no longer produce.

But then Elian played himself back to the minors. When the pitchers started throwing him strikes until they got the count their way, Elian had to make an adjustment. It’s a lot easier to take a hack when the count is full and you know what’s coming. If it doesn’t come then just take it. Good times.

But now Elian had to start making contact on the pitcher’s terms. His swing remained hackish. He needed to tighten it up and hit the ball the other way. He didn’t do it. Or couldn’t do it. (I'm still rooting for you Elian. You're a great story.)

So here we are.

The Dodger Bloggers had all warned their constituents well in advance that they should prepare for Elian’s departure. Meaning mostly that Uribe/Kennedy were staying.

When the Dodgers didn’t announce the roster moves until right before the game Friday everyone was confused. It could have been there was a trade in the works. And depending how it went different people might be coming and going. Then it didn’t happen.

The more likely scenario was a decision by committee that included Stan Kasten. If I’m Ned and my job is hanging by a thread I’m probably not going to go out on the limb all by myself. It’s going to be a group decision. Maybe there was a disagreement. I’m pretty sure that Ned does not have the authority to do anything with the roster without Kasten’s blessing. That’s just how these things work. Still it’s just a theory.

Worse yet Elian has allowed them to keep both Uribe and Kennedy now until at least Dee Gordon comes back. Back up shortstop, left handed hitting 3B and all that sort of semi legitimate stuff.

Kasten can make the argument that the baseball guys realize that Uribe/Kennedy is not a good option but currently it’s our best chance of winning. I believe Kasten had the final word. And if he did it’s a gutless decision.

That’s not how you rebuild a leaking ship left to you by the hated Frank McCourt. Instead you make courageous decisions that the fan base can get behind. He’s slapping the fan base in the face by keeping Uribe around. It’s quite possible that Don Baseball is the culprit here and Stan is just backing up his management team.

But make no mistake, blaming Ned is pointless for this and future decisions. He doesn’t have the final say. And he’s not coming up with any moves independently.

Kasten knows as well as anyone that Uribe is a morale buster for the players, the coaches, the fans, the ushers, the announcers, any aliens visiting the planet. I hope he doesn’t play things this safe going forward or it’s going to take a long time for the Dodgers to rebuild the team. Anything that happens or doesn’t happen now is on Stan. And so far it's been very WEAK.

Damn it Elian. Was cutting down your swing and going the other way that hard to do?

p.s. As I’ve said before Juan Uribe is trying to make an adjustment. Even though he still isn’t hitting his At Bats look 100 percent better. No I’m not kidding. He’s taking pitches he was swinging wildly at before. He’s actually going deep in the count a fair amount. That’s doesn’t make up for his horrible fundamentals. But it’s not nothing.

p.s.s. VietnamDodger how hard can it be to use the comment function. The stat kids managed it. You’re a doctor for gawd’s sake. Sober up and try it again. But don’t be mad if I don’t publish it because you know how you get.

p.s.s.s. Wow that Yasiel Puig picture. He could have been the poster boy for the steroid era

p.s..s.s.s.  IF YOU CAN’T UNDERSTAND WHY THE GENERAL FAN BASE REALLY HATES STAT BOYS CHECK THIS POST. http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2012/07/14/marcus-hayes-is-so-doing-it-wrong/12293#respond

Wait, What? Shane Victorino, well ...

As the trade deadline hysteria builds, Phil Gurnee at TBLA reminds everyone just how bleak the outlook is for acquiring valuable offensive players. Except for that time when pigs-flew-out-of-butts and Manny-Mania happened, difference makers hardly ever show up this time of year. And now with teams locking up their good players and the double wild car, well, it's unlikely anything is going to happen.

If I was forced to make a call I'd say the most likely kind of trade the Dodgers will make is one of the Ty Wigginton variety. Stat kids will whine, Ned will oversell, some good might come of it. But not anything that will change fortunes.

The most logical trade that makes sense for everybody is Joshua David Willingham. Good contract. Won't lead the Twins to the promised land. Oldish. The Twins GM says he's desperate for pitchers. The Dodger can overpay with minor league pitching prospects. Most assuredly helps the Dodger offensive to a significant degree. Can't think why the Twins couldn't be persuaded.

Haven't heard anything about it which doesn't mean a thing but there it is.

No Headley, no Upton. OK never say never. Five percent chance the Dodgers get Headley. .005 chance they get Upton.

What about Aramis Ramirez you say? I can't think of a good reason why the Brewers should trade him. Sure he's got a big contract but he's also a legit offensive threat that plays 3B. Hardly anyone has one of those. Not to mention that the Brewers have a really good team. Management shouldn't piss off their very strong and lucrative fan base because their all-star level catcher got hurt, Rickie Weeks and Nyjer Morgan decided to take the year off, and, well, their plan for shortstop did suck. If Marcum comes back strong and a couple players wake up they could leap right back into a playoff spot.

Then there's Shane. People have quietly mentioned Shane Victorino a couple times lately in the various chat rooms. But most everyone just says no. Why? Because they hate him. I'm sure many of his teammates hate him. Phillies management definitely hates him. I hate him. I'm sure some of his relatives aren't exactly thrilled with him.

One poster who has gone all in on Shane is VietnamDodger at the Tragic Illness chat room. I think Viet actually knows more about baseball than most of the rest there combined. She/he hides it behind a lot of silliness but she/he finally sold me on the concept.

After the Willingham idea, trading and trading for Shane Victorino may be the next most logical transaction that should happen.

Shane seriously believes he deserves a 5-year contract. The Phillies are probably thinking they may not want to sign him for any kind of contract. That contract request gives the Phillies the out card with the fan base for trading him. Not to mention he's been bad this year. Not to mention a lot of his teammates  hate him. Not to mention any money they spend is best spent on Hamels. They're good to trade Shane.

BTW, if the Phillies don't sign Hamels now or at the end of year they are, well, idiots. And I don't see the Phillies being idiots.

Now of course I wouldn't sign Hamels probably because I'm not giving any pitcher a crazy 6-year contract or whatever length it's going to take. Logically you know it's going to end bad. But the Major League Baseball marketplace will dictate that the Phillies sign Hamels and I expect that they will.

The Phillies have no outs on Hamels. They can't say they're poor. They can't say they don't have a great fan base. They can't say they are building for the future. They can't say he's a bad guy. They can't say they won't go over the cap because they already are. They can't say they're not in a major market. They can't let another major market team outbid them. They can't say he's too old. They can't say he's going downhill.

So? I expect Cole Hamels to stay right where he is.

But Shane, come on over. He improves the overall Dodger team. Lead off hitter to replace Dee. A defensive upgrade in the outfield. Remember the Dodgers have to play either an elderly gentleman or a minor league player in left field. That spells drastic upgrade. He's sucking right now but he's got to give it everything because he's playing for a contract. Yeah, he's a punk. But so are a lot of players. With Shane it's just so obvious.

And the Phillies can't ask for much because he's obviously a rental. He's sucking. He'll require more payment than was paid for Youk but the Phillies can't ask for a top prospect. Well, they can ask. And the Dodgers can overpay some because other teams will be bidding. (Every trade the Dodgers can make will look like an overpay so man up and get used to it.) But it's doable unlike so many other silly trade ideas floating around.

I had to think a minute about Justin Morneau because he's been such a great player and he's only 31. But that huge contract coupled with all the physical problems just flat out busts the risk/reward machine into little pieces. Too bad.

And VietnamDodger, I love ya baby.

AND. DON'T SIGN SHANE FOR NEXT YEAR OR THERE WILL BE AN UGLY UPRISING.