Is Chad Billingsly a great pitcher? No.
Does Chad Billingsly have good stuff? Yes.
Can Chad dominate at times? Yes.
Does Chad fly off the tracks on occasion? Yes.
Is he mentally weak? I think that's a silly idea.
Do you think Chad is the best choice to pitch in a crucial game? No.
Do you think Chad is a No. 2 pitcher? No.
Do you think he's valuable to the team? Yes.
Would you trade him? No, unless someone is giving me a very good player in return.
Do you think Chad is overpaid? Probably, but how many professional players aren't.
Does Chad drive you crazy with his inconsistency? No, I think he is somewhat consistent perhaps just not in the manner that you like. He's a good No. 4 pitcher.
Why doesn't Chad pitch better than he does? Well, pitching in the major leagues is hard and putting it in perspective, only a few people in the world pitch better than Chad. He's done well for himself and his family and has nothing to be ashamed of.
Is he the reason the Dodgers aren't winning? Hardly.
Do you think he doesn't know how to pitch? Of course not.
Here's the thing with Chad in my opinion. He's not a natural. He's someone who has to work hard on every delivery to get the pitch to work well. He's thick bodied and not exactly fluid. I wouldn't say cumbersome but it isn't an easily reproduced motion and delivery of the ball.
If the pressure mounts, situation changes, runners fill the bases, pitch count is up, well, anything can push on that comfort zone. And with less comfort comes a higher degree of difficulty in keeping that mechanical motion and all its parts under control. Chad is a good major league pitcher. But any expectation of more than that is not realistic. Very few people can be great pitchers. Just try and trade for one and you'll see how few there are.
Speaking Of Chad
One of the dumbest things you read in a place like the Tragic Illness chat room is the total lack of respect or understanding of the human condition. Everything is just numbers. One day they were talking about Chad B and the pressure. There was some speculation that maybe pressure played a role in his mediocre pitching. And some keyboard warrior by the name of PhoTOOn or whatever said that by the time players get to the majors they shouldn't really be affected by pressure.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH. Ask any professional player, collegiate player whatever - they all say there is pressure. Real Pressure. Most of the time. And that different players react differently to it and many other factors that affect humans. Baseball is not a game governed by statistics.
I think kids who sit at the keyboard who have never competed in anything more than recreational sports are about the worst choice possible to analyze a dynamic game played by athletic human beings. They have no real experience but they create flawed ALGOs about things they know nothing about. Wonder why the stats are flawed. They have no idea what they don't know. But tell them that and, well....
The Real Deal
Shortly after Elian Herrera arrived on the scene I predicted he was the real deal. His plate discipline was fantastic and he stung the ball when he got the count in his favor. Since then he's struggled. The pitchers realized they needed to challenge him. It suddently became harder for Herrera to get that advantage in the count.
His average plummeted and he stopped getting the walks. Now he must adjust to the pitchers or he'll soon have lost his big chance. What he needs to do is cut down his swing that's gotten longer as he tries harder. He needs to go to the opposite field. He needs to be a threat to the pitchers again, but in a different way. If he can't make them pay for challenging him, well, he'll be in trouble.
People aren't giving him credit for having to learn on the job and in the pressure packed 2 hole. This is the first time he's faced major league pitching for more than a few at bats. He's proved he's a major league utility player by playing all the positions well. He's valuable because he's a switch hitter. Now he's got to show the pitchers he can do more than walk. I'm still rooting for Herrera and hoping to see him make the adjustment.
I didn't say that there was no pressure in the majors. Far from it. I only said that if a player is in the majors, they probably know how to deal with pressure, otherwise they wouldn't have been up in the majors and survived.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I think you actually have a pretty honest and accurate portrayal of Bills. He's not the best pitcher, maybe not even a #2 pitcher, but he's a good middle of the rotation guy. You definitely have it right where so many who just want to dump him have it wrong.
And you may be on to something about pitching with runners on. His stats get worse, though not abysmal by any means. He may not be comfortable pitching from the stretch, but he doesn't mentally deteriorate as some claim.
Where we disagree is in our comparison of pitchers. I don't think Capuano is any better than Billingsley. They are very similar pitchers. And hopefully we can both agree that Capuano is in no way better than Kershaw, which is a claim that I've heard.
Tony, dealing with pressure is not the same as handling pressure successfully. Everybody in the majors handles pressure with varying degrees of competence. Why? Because their humans. Next time you have a chance ask a major leaguer if some players are better under pressure than others. It's not so different as how people handle being in combat differently.
ReplyDeleteYes we can agree to disagree regarding the Capuano/Bills debate. I believe C CAP is the far better pitcher. And I would agree that Clayton is clearly the better pitcher between him and C Cap. However, I think there's a fair argument to be made that C Cap has pitched as well as Clayton this season.