As the trade deadline hysteria builds, Phil Gurnee at TBLA reminds everyone just how bleak the outlook is for acquiring valuable offensive players. Except for that time when pigs-flew-out-of-butts and Manny-Mania happened, difference makers hardly ever show up this time of year. And now with teams locking up their good players and the double wild car, well, it's unlikely anything is going to happen.
If I was forced to make a call I'd say the most likely kind of trade the Dodgers will make is one of the Ty Wigginton variety. Stat kids will whine, Ned will oversell, some good might come of it. But not anything that will change fortunes.
The most logical trade that makes sense for everybody is Joshua David Willingham. Good contract. Won't lead the Twins to the promised land. Oldish. The Twins GM says he's desperate for pitchers. The Dodger can overpay with minor league pitching prospects. Most assuredly helps the Dodger offensive to a significant degree. Can't think why the Twins couldn't be persuaded.
Haven't heard anything about it which doesn't mean a thing but there it is.
No Headley, no Upton. OK never say never. Five percent chance the Dodgers get Headley. .005 chance they get Upton.
What about Aramis Ramirez you say? I can't think of a good reason why the Brewers should trade him. Sure he's got a big contract but he's also a legit offensive threat that plays 3B. Hardly anyone has one of those. Not to mention that the Brewers have a really good team. Management shouldn't piss off their very strong and lucrative fan base because their all-star level catcher got hurt, Rickie Weeks and Nyjer Morgan decided to take the year off, and, well, their plan for shortstop did suck. If Marcum comes back strong and a couple players wake up they could leap right back into a playoff spot.
Then there's Shane. People have quietly mentioned Shane Victorino a couple times lately in the various chat rooms. But most everyone just says no. Why? Because they hate him. I'm sure many of his teammates hate him. Phillies management definitely hates him. I hate him. I'm sure some of his relatives aren't exactly thrilled with him.
One poster who has gone all in on Shane is VietnamDodger at the Tragic Illness chat room. I think Viet actually knows more about baseball than most of the rest there combined. She/he hides it behind a lot of silliness but she/he finally sold me on the concept.
After the Willingham idea, trading and trading for Shane Victorino may be the next most logical transaction that should happen.
Shane seriously believes he deserves a 5-year contract. The Phillies are probably thinking they may not want to sign him for any kind of contract. That contract request gives the Phillies the out card with the fan base for trading him. Not to mention he's been bad this year. Not to mention a lot of his teammates hate him. Not to mention any money they spend is best spent on Hamels. They're good to trade Shane.
BTW, if the Phillies don't sign Hamels now or at the end of year they are, well, idiots. And I don't see the Phillies being idiots.
Now of course I wouldn't sign Hamels probably because I'm not giving any pitcher a crazy 6-year contract or whatever length it's going to take. Logically you know it's going to end bad. But the Major League Baseball marketplace will dictate that the Phillies sign Hamels and I expect that they will.
The Phillies have no outs on Hamels. They can't say they're poor. They can't say they don't have a great fan base. They can't say they are building for the future. They can't say he's a bad guy. They can't say they won't go over the cap because they already are. They can't say they're not in a major market. They can't let another major market team outbid them. They can't say he's too old. They can't say he's going downhill.
So? I expect Cole Hamels to stay right where he is.
But Shane, come on over. He improves the overall Dodger team. Lead off hitter to replace Dee. A defensive upgrade in the outfield. Remember the Dodgers have to play either an elderly gentleman or a minor league player in left field. That spells drastic upgrade. He's sucking right now but he's got to give it everything because he's playing for a contract. Yeah, he's a punk. But so are a lot of players. With Shane it's just so obvious.
And the Phillies can't ask for much because he's obviously a rental. He's sucking. He'll require more payment than was paid for Youk but the Phillies can't ask for a top prospect. Well, they can ask. And the Dodgers can overpay some because other teams will be bidding. (Every trade the Dodgers can make will look like an overpay so man up and get used to it.) But it's doable unlike so many other silly trade ideas floating around.
I had to think a minute about Justin Morneau because he's been such a great player and he's only 31. But that huge contract coupled with all the physical problems just flat out busts the risk/reward machine into little pieces. Too bad.
And VietnamDodger, I love ya baby.
AND. DON'T SIGN SHANE FOR NEXT YEAR OR THERE WILL BE AN UGLY UPRISING.
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