Thursday, August 9, 2012
VODF SIGNS OFF AGAIN
Well it appears I need to put my full energy into rooting for the Dodgers as they apparently can't do it on their own. So thanks for reading and I'll talk to you later. Regarding the Stat Kids: A little more cheering and a lot less mindless bitching would be nice.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
The Dog Days That's What I'm Talking About
Last night the Rockies' announcers were trying to keep from laughing at the Dodgers inability to hit AT ALL.
They were saying the Rockies' starting pitching statistically was the worst in the Majors BY A LOT. And the bad pitching was reaching historical levels of badness stating that there might have been only one starting group that was worse EVER than the 2012 Rockies.
Now they did this in a way that didn't threaten their HOMER-NESS. The point they getting to (but would not say it directly) was just how bad the Dodger hitters looked.
They'd come with stuff like the Rockies starters couldn't get anybody out for two weeks and now they're throwing shutouts against these Dodgers, hmmmm. It was all they could do to stop from laughing out loud. They came back to this point several times during the game and each time you could imagine them looking at each other in the booth with their hands over their mouths trying to stifle a burst of chuckles.
The Dodger hitters have looked really bad the last two nights. We all expected more when Hanley and Shane arrived along with Kemp and Ethier being back.
I tried to make the point the other day that people should give Brandon League a chance because he's got nasty stuff. The answer that came back was why should he pitch well for the Dodgers when he sucked this year for Seattle? True enough.
In that same way Shane and Hanley were both sucking for their respective teams why should they do well for the Dodgers?
An interesting thing about a group of human beings trying to do anything is the large number of THINGS that can affect the outcome of whatever they're trying to do.
In the performance of a large group an individual's output can matter very little or it can change everything. People who are marginal can be above average in a certain group dynamic. The best performer can lose his/her mojo and never do much again.
The same person could develop into a leader in one group and be the heaviest anchor in another group. The factors and outcomes are endless. How can anyone believe any number explains what happened. Numbers are so hopelessly inadequate and one dimensional. It's always the WHY that's the most important answer.
So, anyway, the Dodgers for whatever reason, could blow up offensively tonight OR NOT. Who knows. There's no numeric reason for whatever occurs next. What hopefully might occur will be some sort of human catalyst or catalysts.
I think we all hope Matt Kemp just suddenly finds it and starts raining home runs across the Major Leagues and the rest of the Dodgers come right behind him. That would be fun. But it might just as well be Ethier or Hanley or, some other scenario. You choose.
End of today's dead-horse beating.
Whoops. Nope. More dead-horse beating. Please don't talk to me about Zack Lee being a sure thing. Check this out.
They were saying the Rockies' starting pitching statistically was the worst in the Majors BY A LOT. And the bad pitching was reaching historical levels of badness stating that there might have been only one starting group that was worse EVER than the 2012 Rockies.
Now they did this in a way that didn't threaten their HOMER-NESS. The point they getting to (but would not say it directly) was just how bad the Dodger hitters looked.
They'd come with stuff like the Rockies starters couldn't get anybody out for two weeks and now they're throwing shutouts against these Dodgers, hmmmm. It was all they could do to stop from laughing out loud. They came back to this point several times during the game and each time you could imagine them looking at each other in the booth with their hands over their mouths trying to stifle a burst of chuckles.
The Dodger hitters have looked really bad the last two nights. We all expected more when Hanley and Shane arrived along with Kemp and Ethier being back.
I tried to make the point the other day that people should give Brandon League a chance because he's got nasty stuff. The answer that came back was why should he pitch well for the Dodgers when he sucked this year for Seattle? True enough.
In that same way Shane and Hanley were both sucking for their respective teams why should they do well for the Dodgers?
An interesting thing about a group of human beings trying to do anything is the large number of THINGS that can affect the outcome of whatever they're trying to do.
In the performance of a large group an individual's output can matter very little or it can change everything. People who are marginal can be above average in a certain group dynamic. The best performer can lose his/her mojo and never do much again.
The same person could develop into a leader in one group and be the heaviest anchor in another group. The factors and outcomes are endless. How can anyone believe any number explains what happened. Numbers are so hopelessly inadequate and one dimensional. It's always the WHY that's the most important answer.
So, anyway, the Dodgers for whatever reason, could blow up offensively tonight OR NOT. Who knows. There's no numeric reason for whatever occurs next. What hopefully might occur will be some sort of human catalyst or catalysts.
I think we all hope Matt Kemp just suddenly finds it and starts raining home runs across the Major Leagues and the rest of the Dodgers come right behind him. That would be fun. But it might just as well be Ethier or Hanley or, some other scenario. You choose.
End of today's dead-horse beating.
Whoops. Nope. More dead-horse beating. Please don't talk to me about Zack Lee being a sure thing. Check this out.
the very top ranked dodger prospect from 2010 to 2000
Dee Gordon
Andrew Lambo
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Chad Bills
Joel Guzman
Edwin Jackson
James Loney
Ricardo Rodriguez
Ben Diggens
Chin-Feg Chen
Andrew Lambo
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Chad Bills
Joel Guzman
Edwin Jackson
James Loney
Ricardo Rodriguez
Ben Diggens
Chin-Feg Chen
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
The Gang's All Here - Now What?
I haven't looked it up but I can't remember the Dodgers ever picking up this many good Major League players at the trade deadline.
OK, you can argue who qualifies as a good Major Leaguer. But compared to most everyone else the Dodgers have traded for over the years I'm going with it. Of course there's the point of view that they also had a lot of deep, dark holes to fill. Whatever.
In my opinion these players are all upgrades of the 25-man roster and certainly better than the minor leaguers people clamor for when things aren't going well. Brandon League? Hey, the dude has got some nasty, nasty stuff. It is a shame that at this point in time he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. And if he doesn't throw the nasty stuff he gets hit hard. But hey, he's got potential.
Not as much as Hanley of course. That guy looks like a player. Unfortunately, he's getting dangerously close to the end of the honeymoon period and everyone expects more than 1 home run every 50 at bats or so and a less-than-700 OPS.
The Colorado announcers were speculating last night that Hanley's swing has gotten longer since his heyday a few years ago. They said now he starts his swing holding his hands near his face. Then he goes back and then forward making for a long swing. When he hits it goes bang but he's not squaring the ball up regularly. I was surprised when I saw that he's only struck out 8 times in 46 at bats. With that big swing and his willingness to hack outside the zone I thought it would be more.
The boss at Miami took another swipe at Hanley yesterday. When asked about Hanley and the salary dump the guy said his team made zero salary dumps. "Every trade we made was to better the club." Oooh. Man the Fish brass really hate the kid.
There was a standing ovation around Dodgerdom yesterday as Jerry Sands was called up. Jerry the Savior. Or the Jerry that's better than Loney or Rivera. Or the Jerry that should have been playing all along.
In the first Jerry story the kid talks about how his recent success in New Mexico was due to him going back to his old stance. The one where he starts with the bat sitting or near sitting on his shoulder. Good luck with that kid. That makes for a slow bat. And your first at bats last night didn't look a lot better than a couple months ago when you struck out 8 out of 20 visits to the plate.
I hope he knows what he's doing. The coaches are probably saying WTF-ever Jerry just do it because you're running out of chances. I hope he succeeds.
I had really hoped that last night would be the start of a big run to the division title. I should just keep my thoughts to myself. What a depressing effort. C Cap didn't pitch good but he pitched good enough. The problem was where you didn't expect it to be and if that doesn't change things aren't going to progress well.
Matt Kemp, the Dodger's best player, and Hanley, the Dodger's best new acquisition left men on first and second with no outs TWICE. They didn't get the ball out of the infield. The Rockies pitcher shut them down. That just can't happen. Once, maybe, but not twice.
That's the season right there in a nutshell. If the Dodgers best players execute when they're suppose to the team will go far. If not, more depressing disappointment is on the program.
OK, you can argue who qualifies as a good Major Leaguer. But compared to most everyone else the Dodgers have traded for over the years I'm going with it. Of course there's the point of view that they also had a lot of deep, dark holes to fill. Whatever.
In my opinion these players are all upgrades of the 25-man roster and certainly better than the minor leaguers people clamor for when things aren't going well. Brandon League? Hey, the dude has got some nasty, nasty stuff. It is a shame that at this point in time he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. And if he doesn't throw the nasty stuff he gets hit hard. But hey, he's got potential.
Not as much as Hanley of course. That guy looks like a player. Unfortunately, he's getting dangerously close to the end of the honeymoon period and everyone expects more than 1 home run every 50 at bats or so and a less-than-700 OPS.
The Colorado announcers were speculating last night that Hanley's swing has gotten longer since his heyday a few years ago. They said now he starts his swing holding his hands near his face. Then he goes back and then forward making for a long swing. When he hits it goes bang but he's not squaring the ball up regularly. I was surprised when I saw that he's only struck out 8 times in 46 at bats. With that big swing and his willingness to hack outside the zone I thought it would be more.
The boss at Miami took another swipe at Hanley yesterday. When asked about Hanley and the salary dump the guy said his team made zero salary dumps. "Every trade we made was to better the club." Oooh. Man the Fish brass really hate the kid.
There was a standing ovation around Dodgerdom yesterday as Jerry Sands was called up. Jerry the Savior. Or the Jerry that's better than Loney or Rivera. Or the Jerry that should have been playing all along.
In the first Jerry story the kid talks about how his recent success in New Mexico was due to him going back to his old stance. The one where he starts with the bat sitting or near sitting on his shoulder. Good luck with that kid. That makes for a slow bat. And your first at bats last night didn't look a lot better than a couple months ago when you struck out 8 out of 20 visits to the plate.
I hope he knows what he's doing. The coaches are probably saying WTF-ever Jerry just do it because you're running out of chances. I hope he succeeds.
I had really hoped that last night would be the start of a big run to the division title. I should just keep my thoughts to myself. What a depressing effort. C Cap didn't pitch good but he pitched good enough. The problem was where you didn't expect it to be and if that doesn't change things aren't going to progress well.
Matt Kemp, the Dodger's best player, and Hanley, the Dodger's best new acquisition left men on first and second with no outs TWICE. They didn't get the ball out of the infield. The Rockies pitcher shut them down. That just can't happen. Once, maybe, but not twice.
That's the season right there in a nutshell. If the Dodgers best players execute when they're suppose to the team will go far. If not, more depressing disappointment is on the program.
Monday, August 6, 2012
OK, No Waiting On Jerry Sands After all
Wrong again VODF.
Sands' past failures and the Dodgers continuing habit of doing what ever gyrations they can manage to keep old guys with contracts had me convinced that this move would not happen until September.
Gwynn had a least some value given his defensive prowess. But with Shane on board his role became first left-handed pinch hitter off the bench and that exposed Tony even more.
But what does Juan Uribe have to do to get "exposed."
Anyway, surprised or not, it's a good move. And hopefully it makes official the notion of not keeping marginal players because, well, their experienced or something.
That being said Jerry Sands is no mortal lock cinch to make all his new found supporters happy. He batted .200 when he was up earlier in the season and almost that in Spring Training. But like Dee, he had a good September last year.
That's why everyone including Don Baseball was annoyed when he showed almost none of that potential this March.
And so no one forgets, Jerry got 20 at bats earlier this season and struck out 8 times.
I think the fan base needed new hope as Randy Choate, Brandon League and Shane Victorino are off to really slow starts with the Dodgers. Hanley has 11 RBI in 11 games although that doesn't matter to stat kids unless they like you, of course. Hanley is batting .238 as a Dodger but his OBP is on rise from his Miami output this year. He hasn't been great but 11 RBI in 11 games is a strong contribution.
The Dodgers need to launch a streak right now. They're in a good spot. They've at least temporarily fixed their gaping hole in the starting rotation. Won three, now the Rockies at home. New players. New hope. This is not the time to let anything get away. Bear down. Prison Rules!
Sands' past failures and the Dodgers continuing habit of doing what ever gyrations they can manage to keep old guys with contracts had me convinced that this move would not happen until September.
Gwynn had a least some value given his defensive prowess. But with Shane on board his role became first left-handed pinch hitter off the bench and that exposed Tony even more.
But what does Juan Uribe have to do to get "exposed."
Anyway, surprised or not, it's a good move. And hopefully it makes official the notion of not keeping marginal players because, well, their experienced or something.
That being said Jerry Sands is no mortal lock cinch to make all his new found supporters happy. He batted .200 when he was up earlier in the season and almost that in Spring Training. But like Dee, he had a good September last year.
That's why everyone including Don Baseball was annoyed when he showed almost none of that potential this March.
And so no one forgets, Jerry got 20 at bats earlier this season and struck out 8 times.
I think the fan base needed new hope as Randy Choate, Brandon League and Shane Victorino are off to really slow starts with the Dodgers. Hanley has 11 RBI in 11 games although that doesn't matter to stat kids unless they like you, of course. Hanley is batting .238 as a Dodger but his OBP is on rise from his Miami output this year. He hasn't been great but 11 RBI in 11 games is a strong contribution.
The Dodgers need to launch a streak right now. They're in a good spot. They've at least temporarily fixed their gaping hole in the starting rotation. Won three, now the Rockies at home. New players. New hope. This is not the time to let anything get away. Bear down. Prison Rules!
Sunday, August 5, 2012
What's It Goin To Be Jerry?
Sometimes when a once-highly-thought-of-prospect goes back down to the minors for the second or third time they never get back to the Big Show.
Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.
Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.
So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.
On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.
That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)
So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.
Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?
Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.
2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.
Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.
All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.
What do you do?
Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.
Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.
Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.
So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.
On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.
That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)
So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.
Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?
Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.
2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.
Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.
All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.
What do you do?
Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Dodgers Might Have New No. 2
No not Joe Blanton. A lot of Stat Kids are saying Joe B. is just a little less good than The Dempster and look at all the prospects - that may never play in the Major Leagues - we saved. I hope they have fine lives as accountants. But I digress.
People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.
Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.
For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.
Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.
But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.
Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.
JOE BLANTON
Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.
Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.
I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.
Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.
So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak.
It's going to be close sports fans.
People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.
Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.
For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.
Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.
But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.
Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.
JOE BLANTON
Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.
Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.
I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.
Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.
So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak.
It's going to be close sports fans.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Stop Thinking And Just Do It
Look. You're making a big deal about saying you're in it to win it.
You blow the Dempster deal over a prospect and thereby tie a heavy lead weight to your leg while you're racing for a divisional title. You have no access to any other non-miracle needed pitchers. You've sunk a Pacific Ocean full of money into the team in the last few months. Are you telling me you're not going to buy the last expensive and risky ticket to a possible World Series?
Put the claim in on Cliff Lee and move on. The Phillies aren't going to let you have Lee for nothing without a really long and annoying negotiation. That buys you time at least.
And what if the Phillies surprise everyone and say, fine take him? Well, that's what you wanted. You didn't want the ba-zillion dollar contract you now own but that's the price of being a big boy. And the Guggenheim Partner group may be as a big a boy as you'll find in Major League Baseball ownership.
They understand the financial benefits of going deep in the playoffs. They're not afraid of payroll if it's going to reap other dollar rewards. These guys are investment bankers, financial killers roaming the corporate world looking to eat all the weak. Why did they overpay for the Dodgers? To make big time money down the road.
You think they're not going to push the button on Cliff Lee because he has an outrageous contract by our standards.
Ned and Stan aren't making the call on Cliff Lee. The Guggenheim owners are.
If you want to talk baseball let's do that. There are no free agents to speak of in the off season. Somebody from the minor leagues is going to have to play left field or first base next year. Or some much beloved prospects are going to have to be traded to get same.
This would be the Dodger's big free agent signing and you'd be hard pressed to find a better one. Yeah Lee's getting old and he's likely to be average or worse by the time the contract runs out. But there's a good chance the contract will look better than what Mr. Ethier's contract is going to look like then.
But if the Dodger claim Lee we're only half way there. The Phillies are going to want Zach Lee and others for the rights to the absurd contract they gave Lee. What do you do then? That one is hard because if you go all Dempster and screw it up and again, well, I'd have to fire you. Or the Guggenheim Partners will. Saving a buck or prospect but not winning is not a positive when you play with the big boys.
Anyway, we'll come to that bridge if and when we get there.
You blow the Dempster deal over a prospect and thereby tie a heavy lead weight to your leg while you're racing for a divisional title. You have no access to any other non-miracle needed pitchers. You've sunk a Pacific Ocean full of money into the team in the last few months. Are you telling me you're not going to buy the last expensive and risky ticket to a possible World Series?
Put the claim in on Cliff Lee and move on. The Phillies aren't going to let you have Lee for nothing without a really long and annoying negotiation. That buys you time at least.
And what if the Phillies surprise everyone and say, fine take him? Well, that's what you wanted. You didn't want the ba-zillion dollar contract you now own but that's the price of being a big boy. And the Guggenheim Partner group may be as a big a boy as you'll find in Major League Baseball ownership.
They understand the financial benefits of going deep in the playoffs. They're not afraid of payroll if it's going to reap other dollar rewards. These guys are investment bankers, financial killers roaming the corporate world looking to eat all the weak. Why did they overpay for the Dodgers? To make big time money down the road.
You think they're not going to push the button on Cliff Lee because he has an outrageous contract by our standards.
Ned and Stan aren't making the call on Cliff Lee. The Guggenheim owners are.
If you want to talk baseball let's do that. There are no free agents to speak of in the off season. Somebody from the minor leagues is going to have to play left field or first base next year. Or some much beloved prospects are going to have to be traded to get same.
This would be the Dodger's big free agent signing and you'd be hard pressed to find a better one. Yeah Lee's getting old and he's likely to be average or worse by the time the contract runs out. But there's a good chance the contract will look better than what Mr. Ethier's contract is going to look like then.
But if the Dodger claim Lee we're only half way there. The Phillies are going to want Zach Lee and others for the rights to the absurd contract they gave Lee. What do you do then? That one is hard because if you go all Dempster and screw it up and again, well, I'd have to fire you. Or the Guggenheim Partners will. Saving a buck or prospect but not winning is not a positive when you play with the big boys.
Anyway, we'll come to that bridge if and when we get there.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Part 3: Trade Deadline Over And Out
Well I was wrong. I thought it unlikely that the Dodgers would actually be able to pull off a major acquisition. But I'm not sure a team has ever hated a 28-year-old former super star so much that they were willing to give him and his once reasonable contract to a team for a pitcher like Nate E. and a No. 25 prospect.
Did any one else think that would happen? No.
And then I didn't think the Dodgers would botch the Dempster deal where at one point they had all the leverage. Guess they got greedy and over played their hand. The result being a gaping hole in the starting rotation going into a stretch run. Dumb. It has to be obvious to them at this point that they've screwed up the starting pitching.
Shane Victorino? Sure. That was logical and the level of transaction that usually happens. Brandon League. A little surprising. Usually you go for results rather than tools for the playoff run. League certainly has stuff. But not sure he knows where it's going currently. Choate. He is what he is and the Dodgers didn't have any of those.
Gave up EO. That hurt but had to happen given the situation. Lindblom. Think everyone had checked out of that hotel. Josh has a live arm but shows no real pitching skill as yet. It's quite possible he's as good as he's going to get. The rest were prospects outside the Top Ten List.
Bottom line. Two gigantic dark holes filled. Bullpen improved. Starting rotation degraded.
Prospects are so overvalued it's pathetic. How about the 2008 Top Ten Prospect List. That would be: Kershaw, LaRoche, Hu, Elbert, DeWitt, Withrow, McDonald, Meloan, D. Young, Pedro Baez. I can only imagine who was 11th through 20th. Yeah let's not trade any of those guys because, you know, maybe 15 percent of em are going to be good. Note. Nobody thinks Zach Lee is the second, third or fourth coming of Mr. Kershaw.
Hanley looks strong, fast and an adequate fielder at third. He's going to walk some. And he's going to hit a few game winners. But he's an undisciplined hitter who likes to hot dog a little. If he adds just 40 points to his stat line numbers he'll justify his contract. Maybe not even that due to the dark hole nature of third base in the major leagues. But please don't mistake him - at all - for Manny. And it may turn out he doesn't justify his contract if left to his way of doing things.
There are only two players that can carry the Dodgers to the playoffs: Kershaw and Kemp. The two true super stars currently on the team. They both have to do what they did last August and September. For Kemp that means hitting 7 or 8 home runs a month and basically bludgeoning the opposition in a way that allows the rest of the offense to follow right behind him. And Kershaw has to be as close to a sure thing as possible. They both did it last year.
So all the angst about what the Dodgers have or don't have is fine but it really doesn't matter. You can make a strong argument that the team is significantly improved over last year but so what. What matters is if Kemp and Kershaw can lead like they have in the past.
If they can't the Dodgers won't win it's as simple as that. If they can anything is possible.
Did any one else think that would happen? No.
And then I didn't think the Dodgers would botch the Dempster deal where at one point they had all the leverage. Guess they got greedy and over played their hand. The result being a gaping hole in the starting rotation going into a stretch run. Dumb. It has to be obvious to them at this point that they've screwed up the starting pitching.
Shane Victorino? Sure. That was logical and the level of transaction that usually happens. Brandon League. A little surprising. Usually you go for results rather than tools for the playoff run. League certainly has stuff. But not sure he knows where it's going currently. Choate. He is what he is and the Dodgers didn't have any of those.
Gave up EO. That hurt but had to happen given the situation. Lindblom. Think everyone had checked out of that hotel. Josh has a live arm but shows no real pitching skill as yet. It's quite possible he's as good as he's going to get. The rest were prospects outside the Top Ten List.
Bottom line. Two gigantic dark holes filled. Bullpen improved. Starting rotation degraded.
Prospects are so overvalued it's pathetic. How about the 2008 Top Ten Prospect List. That would be: Kershaw, LaRoche, Hu, Elbert, DeWitt, Withrow, McDonald, Meloan, D. Young, Pedro Baez. I can only imagine who was 11th through 20th. Yeah let's not trade any of those guys because, you know, maybe 15 percent of em are going to be good. Note. Nobody thinks Zach Lee is the second, third or fourth coming of Mr. Kershaw.
Hanley looks strong, fast and an adequate fielder at third. He's going to walk some. And he's going to hit a few game winners. But he's an undisciplined hitter who likes to hot dog a little. If he adds just 40 points to his stat line numbers he'll justify his contract. Maybe not even that due to the dark hole nature of third base in the major leagues. But please don't mistake him - at all - for Manny. And it may turn out he doesn't justify his contract if left to his way of doing things.
There are only two players that can carry the Dodgers to the playoffs: Kershaw and Kemp. The two true super stars currently on the team. They both have to do what they did last August and September. For Kemp that means hitting 7 or 8 home runs a month and basically bludgeoning the opposition in a way that allows the rest of the offense to follow right behind him. And Kershaw has to be as close to a sure thing as possible. They both did it last year.
So all the angst about what the Dodgers have or don't have is fine but it really doesn't matter. You can make a strong argument that the team is significantly improved over last year but so what. What matters is if Kemp and Kershaw can lead like they have in the past.
If they can't the Dodgers won't win it's as simple as that. If they can anything is possible.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Part 2: VietnamDodger Shows Stat Boys How It's Done
A month or so ago there was nobody on the Dodger blogs saying, hey let's go get Shane Victorino.
The idea seemed repulsive to most. Can't say I liked the idea because of Shane's punkish nature. But one person said he was the right guy and the Dodgers would trade for him. Come on down VietnamDodger. VND says she's a young doctor from San Francisco doing research in Vietnam. OK, I know, it's the Internet. Let's go with it for now.
Anyway, it wasn't just someone's lame idea tossed out like a thousand others. She had the WHYS. The Whys are so often not a part of the one-dimensional Stat Boy lexicon. They rather just throw down a stat line and claim that number answers all of Man's questions on Earth.
Her Why amounted to this: left field, lead off, speed, defense, cheap, fills a giant black hole, Phillies going bust and the kind of player the Dodgers need.
VietnamDodger runs around with a bunch of Stat Boys at Tragic Illness. The Stat Boys rained down on poor VietnamDodger. No way they said. With their best scientific argument being, We Don't Like Him. Predictable Stat Boys. They call you a dumbass when you don't buy their advanced metric "luck" stat or whatever but if it's something they don't have a number for they go all, We Don't Like Him. Picture a whiny boy's chorus.
On July 13th I bought in to VietnamDodger's idea. Wrote about it here. It made perfect sense. It was the logical outcome.
The Stat Boys hated the idea so much they actually said they preferred Alfonso Soriano. Yes, the same people who go on and on about the picking-up-lame-contract-dead-horse, wanted to pay Soriano for two more years after this. Cute aren't they.
Never was Chase Headley going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Cole Hamels going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Justin Upton going to be traded to the Dodgers. On and On. But VietnamDodger had the Shane deal pegged artfully and early. And she never backed down. She needs to move to a better neighborhood.
THE DEMPSTER PROBLEM
The Dodgers did well at the trading deadline but it may have all gone for not because they made the stupid mistake of not getting Mr. Dempster from the Cubs. I guess the testosterone between the two teams just got so thick that no one could be the better man and make the deal happen.
So you fix the offense, improve your bullpen but leave a gaping hole in your starting pitching. WTF. The Dodgers could still win the division with what they have but going into the playoffs, WTF.
Maybe one of the minor league pitchers will suddenly grow up. Maybe Barney Fife discovers that missing 95 mph fastball that Keith Law says he has. Maybe C Bills' trend towards challenging the strike zone keeps moving forward. Maybe Rubby de la rosa will be thrown into the fire after all and survive. Any of these could happen.
But why wait for miracles if you don't have too. Hanley is not going to carry the Dodgers single-handedly through the playoffs or anywhere else for that matter.
Clown Mistake.
Jonah Keri's Take On The Shane Trade
You can read it right here.
The idea seemed repulsive to most. Can't say I liked the idea because of Shane's punkish nature. But one person said he was the right guy and the Dodgers would trade for him. Come on down VietnamDodger. VND says she's a young doctor from San Francisco doing research in Vietnam. OK, I know, it's the Internet. Let's go with it for now.
Anyway, it wasn't just someone's lame idea tossed out like a thousand others. She had the WHYS. The Whys are so often not a part of the one-dimensional Stat Boy lexicon. They rather just throw down a stat line and claim that number answers all of Man's questions on Earth.
Her Why amounted to this: left field, lead off, speed, defense, cheap, fills a giant black hole, Phillies going bust and the kind of player the Dodgers need.
VietnamDodger runs around with a bunch of Stat Boys at Tragic Illness. The Stat Boys rained down on poor VietnamDodger. No way they said. With their best scientific argument being, We Don't Like Him. Predictable Stat Boys. They call you a dumbass when you don't buy their advanced metric "luck" stat or whatever but if it's something they don't have a number for they go all, We Don't Like Him. Picture a whiny boy's chorus.
On July 13th I bought in to VietnamDodger's idea. Wrote about it here. It made perfect sense. It was the logical outcome.
The Stat Boys hated the idea so much they actually said they preferred Alfonso Soriano. Yes, the same people who go on and on about the picking-up-lame-contract-dead-horse, wanted to pay Soriano for two more years after this. Cute aren't they.
Never was Chase Headley going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Cole Hamels going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Justin Upton going to be traded to the Dodgers. On and On. But VietnamDodger had the Shane deal pegged artfully and early. And she never backed down. She needs to move to a better neighborhood.
THE DEMPSTER PROBLEM
The Dodgers did well at the trading deadline but it may have all gone for not because they made the stupid mistake of not getting Mr. Dempster from the Cubs. I guess the testosterone between the two teams just got so thick that no one could be the better man and make the deal happen.
So you fix the offense, improve your bullpen but leave a gaping hole in your starting pitching. WTF. The Dodgers could still win the division with what they have but going into the playoffs, WTF.
Maybe one of the minor league pitchers will suddenly grow up. Maybe Barney Fife discovers that missing 95 mph fastball that Keith Law says he has. Maybe C Bills' trend towards challenging the strike zone keeps moving forward. Maybe Rubby de la rosa will be thrown into the fire after all and survive. Any of these could happen.
But why wait for miracles if you don't have too. Hanley is not going to carry the Dodgers single-handedly through the playoffs or anywhere else for that matter.
Clown Mistake.
Jonah Keri's Take On The Shane Trade
You can read it right here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)