Saturday, August 4, 2012

Dodgers Might Have New No. 2

No not Joe Blanton. A lot of Stat Kids are saying Joe B. is just a little less good than The Dempster and look at all the prospects - that may never play in the Major Leagues - we saved. I hope they have fine lives as accountants. But I digress.


People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.


Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.


For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.


Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.


But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.


Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.


JOE BLANTON


Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.


Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.


I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.


Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.


So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak. 


It's going to be close sports fans.



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