Regression Is The Ugliest Word In Baseball Since Steroids

What I hate about the pseudo Sabre folks more than anything is how they suck the life out of a game played by humans to entertain other humans.

First you couldn't read a mention on the Internet about Elian Herrera without the obligatory 9-year career minor leaguer who will surely regress. Now it's the I Told You So He Really Sucks because he's never showed any history of, you know, being good, blah, blah, blah, like we said.

Baseball is played by humans not computer simulations. Hundreds of things can effect players, situations, the environment. Baseball is and always will be a game of streaks, slumps, hot, cold and most of all adjustments. How players adjust or don't adjust or can't adjust determine their futures. Not imperfect stats.

When Herrera came up I was amazed at his plate discipline. He didn't work the count to 3-2 much of the time he got to 3-2 almost every time. Pitchers quickly realized that they couldn't trick him at 3-2 because he wasn't swinging unless it was definitely in the strike zone. So they had to throw something that was definitely going to get a strike or he was walking. This temporarily gave Herrera a great hitting advantage when that occurred.

I admired him even more when he took ball four in this situation a few times and the umpire made a bad call and he was inappropriately struck out. This didn't change Herrera's approach and he still religiously worked the count the next time.

So after a month the pitchers figured out how he was beating them and they adjusted. Instead of trying to nibble and/or trick him they have started challenging him with their better stuff at the top of the strike zone. Herrera tried to adjust by trying to ambush the pitcher's first or second pitchthinking they would be trying to sneak in an easy strike. Hasn't worked so far. Right now, like A.J. Ellis, Herrera is not a great major league hitter, he's a great major league walker.

Herrera will have to make a better adjustment. He's only been batting against major league pitching for two months now so there's no reason to think he can't make a better adjustment. Especially considering the approach he started with. He's a switch hitter who can play several position well. I think he's the real deal - a major leaguer.

But most of all I think he's what makes baseball the national pastime. A great story and somebody you should want to root for. Not a science project.


Andy LaRoche. The Cleveland Indians cut LaRoche yesterday. A guy once considered to be the Dodger future third baseman. The sabre people liked him because of OBP and occasional power. But he just couldn't hit major league pitching no matter what the stats said. It's a personal tragedy for the player and I feel for a guy like that. I've made the argument my entire life that sports are about humans not statistics.