What's It Goin To Be Jerry?

Sometimes when a once-highly-thought-of-prospect goes back down to the minors for the second or third time they never get back to the Big Show.


Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.


Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.


So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.


On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.


That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)


So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.


Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?


Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.


2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.


Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.


All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.


What do you do?


Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.