Thursday, August 9, 2012
VODF SIGNS OFF AGAIN
Well it appears I need to put my full energy into rooting for the Dodgers as they apparently can't do it on their own. So thanks for reading and I'll talk to you later. Regarding the Stat Kids: A little more cheering and a lot less mindless bitching would be nice.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
The Dog Days That's What I'm Talking About
Last night the Rockies' announcers were trying to keep from laughing at the Dodgers inability to hit AT ALL.
They were saying the Rockies' starting pitching statistically was the worst in the Majors BY A LOT. And the bad pitching was reaching historical levels of badness stating that there might have been only one starting group that was worse EVER than the 2012 Rockies.
Now they did this in a way that didn't threaten their HOMER-NESS. The point they getting to (but would not say it directly) was just how bad the Dodger hitters looked.
They'd come with stuff like the Rockies starters couldn't get anybody out for two weeks and now they're throwing shutouts against these Dodgers, hmmmm. It was all they could do to stop from laughing out loud. They came back to this point several times during the game and each time you could imagine them looking at each other in the booth with their hands over their mouths trying to stifle a burst of chuckles.
The Dodger hitters have looked really bad the last two nights. We all expected more when Hanley and Shane arrived along with Kemp and Ethier being back.
I tried to make the point the other day that people should give Brandon League a chance because he's got nasty stuff. The answer that came back was why should he pitch well for the Dodgers when he sucked this year for Seattle? True enough.
In that same way Shane and Hanley were both sucking for their respective teams why should they do well for the Dodgers?
An interesting thing about a group of human beings trying to do anything is the large number of THINGS that can affect the outcome of whatever they're trying to do.
In the performance of a large group an individual's output can matter very little or it can change everything. People who are marginal can be above average in a certain group dynamic. The best performer can lose his/her mojo and never do much again.
The same person could develop into a leader in one group and be the heaviest anchor in another group. The factors and outcomes are endless. How can anyone believe any number explains what happened. Numbers are so hopelessly inadequate and one dimensional. It's always the WHY that's the most important answer.
So, anyway, the Dodgers for whatever reason, could blow up offensively tonight OR NOT. Who knows. There's no numeric reason for whatever occurs next. What hopefully might occur will be some sort of human catalyst or catalysts.
I think we all hope Matt Kemp just suddenly finds it and starts raining home runs across the Major Leagues and the rest of the Dodgers come right behind him. That would be fun. But it might just as well be Ethier or Hanley or, some other scenario. You choose.
End of today's dead-horse beating.
Whoops. Nope. More dead-horse beating. Please don't talk to me about Zack Lee being a sure thing. Check this out.
They were saying the Rockies' starting pitching statistically was the worst in the Majors BY A LOT. And the bad pitching was reaching historical levels of badness stating that there might have been only one starting group that was worse EVER than the 2012 Rockies.
Now they did this in a way that didn't threaten their HOMER-NESS. The point they getting to (but would not say it directly) was just how bad the Dodger hitters looked.
They'd come with stuff like the Rockies starters couldn't get anybody out for two weeks and now they're throwing shutouts against these Dodgers, hmmmm. It was all they could do to stop from laughing out loud. They came back to this point several times during the game and each time you could imagine them looking at each other in the booth with their hands over their mouths trying to stifle a burst of chuckles.
The Dodger hitters have looked really bad the last two nights. We all expected more when Hanley and Shane arrived along with Kemp and Ethier being back.
I tried to make the point the other day that people should give Brandon League a chance because he's got nasty stuff. The answer that came back was why should he pitch well for the Dodgers when he sucked this year for Seattle? True enough.
In that same way Shane and Hanley were both sucking for their respective teams why should they do well for the Dodgers?
An interesting thing about a group of human beings trying to do anything is the large number of THINGS that can affect the outcome of whatever they're trying to do.
In the performance of a large group an individual's output can matter very little or it can change everything. People who are marginal can be above average in a certain group dynamic. The best performer can lose his/her mojo and never do much again.
The same person could develop into a leader in one group and be the heaviest anchor in another group. The factors and outcomes are endless. How can anyone believe any number explains what happened. Numbers are so hopelessly inadequate and one dimensional. It's always the WHY that's the most important answer.
So, anyway, the Dodgers for whatever reason, could blow up offensively tonight OR NOT. Who knows. There's no numeric reason for whatever occurs next. What hopefully might occur will be some sort of human catalyst or catalysts.
I think we all hope Matt Kemp just suddenly finds it and starts raining home runs across the Major Leagues and the rest of the Dodgers come right behind him. That would be fun. But it might just as well be Ethier or Hanley or, some other scenario. You choose.
End of today's dead-horse beating.
Whoops. Nope. More dead-horse beating. Please don't talk to me about Zack Lee being a sure thing. Check this out.
the very top ranked dodger prospect from 2010 to 2000
Dee Gordon
Andrew Lambo
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Chad Bills
Joel Guzman
Edwin Jackson
James Loney
Ricardo Rodriguez
Ben Diggens
Chin-Feg Chen
Andrew Lambo
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Chad Bills
Joel Guzman
Edwin Jackson
James Loney
Ricardo Rodriguez
Ben Diggens
Chin-Feg Chen
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
The Gang's All Here - Now What?
I haven't looked it up but I can't remember the Dodgers ever picking up this many good Major League players at the trade deadline.
OK, you can argue who qualifies as a good Major Leaguer. But compared to most everyone else the Dodgers have traded for over the years I'm going with it. Of course there's the point of view that they also had a lot of deep, dark holes to fill. Whatever.
In my opinion these players are all upgrades of the 25-man roster and certainly better than the minor leaguers people clamor for when things aren't going well. Brandon League? Hey, the dude has got some nasty, nasty stuff. It is a shame that at this point in time he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. And if he doesn't throw the nasty stuff he gets hit hard. But hey, he's got potential.
Not as much as Hanley of course. That guy looks like a player. Unfortunately, he's getting dangerously close to the end of the honeymoon period and everyone expects more than 1 home run every 50 at bats or so and a less-than-700 OPS.
The Colorado announcers were speculating last night that Hanley's swing has gotten longer since his heyday a few years ago. They said now he starts his swing holding his hands near his face. Then he goes back and then forward making for a long swing. When he hits it goes bang but he's not squaring the ball up regularly. I was surprised when I saw that he's only struck out 8 times in 46 at bats. With that big swing and his willingness to hack outside the zone I thought it would be more.
The boss at Miami took another swipe at Hanley yesterday. When asked about Hanley and the salary dump the guy said his team made zero salary dumps. "Every trade we made was to better the club." Oooh. Man the Fish brass really hate the kid.
There was a standing ovation around Dodgerdom yesterday as Jerry Sands was called up. Jerry the Savior. Or the Jerry that's better than Loney or Rivera. Or the Jerry that should have been playing all along.
In the first Jerry story the kid talks about how his recent success in New Mexico was due to him going back to his old stance. The one where he starts with the bat sitting or near sitting on his shoulder. Good luck with that kid. That makes for a slow bat. And your first at bats last night didn't look a lot better than a couple months ago when you struck out 8 out of 20 visits to the plate.
I hope he knows what he's doing. The coaches are probably saying WTF-ever Jerry just do it because you're running out of chances. I hope he succeeds.
I had really hoped that last night would be the start of a big run to the division title. I should just keep my thoughts to myself. What a depressing effort. C Cap didn't pitch good but he pitched good enough. The problem was where you didn't expect it to be and if that doesn't change things aren't going to progress well.
Matt Kemp, the Dodger's best player, and Hanley, the Dodger's best new acquisition left men on first and second with no outs TWICE. They didn't get the ball out of the infield. The Rockies pitcher shut them down. That just can't happen. Once, maybe, but not twice.
That's the season right there in a nutshell. If the Dodgers best players execute when they're suppose to the team will go far. If not, more depressing disappointment is on the program.
OK, you can argue who qualifies as a good Major Leaguer. But compared to most everyone else the Dodgers have traded for over the years I'm going with it. Of course there's the point of view that they also had a lot of deep, dark holes to fill. Whatever.
In my opinion these players are all upgrades of the 25-man roster and certainly better than the minor leaguers people clamor for when things aren't going well. Brandon League? Hey, the dude has got some nasty, nasty stuff. It is a shame that at this point in time he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. And if he doesn't throw the nasty stuff he gets hit hard. But hey, he's got potential.
Not as much as Hanley of course. That guy looks like a player. Unfortunately, he's getting dangerously close to the end of the honeymoon period and everyone expects more than 1 home run every 50 at bats or so and a less-than-700 OPS.
The Colorado announcers were speculating last night that Hanley's swing has gotten longer since his heyday a few years ago. They said now he starts his swing holding his hands near his face. Then he goes back and then forward making for a long swing. When he hits it goes bang but he's not squaring the ball up regularly. I was surprised when I saw that he's only struck out 8 times in 46 at bats. With that big swing and his willingness to hack outside the zone I thought it would be more.
The boss at Miami took another swipe at Hanley yesterday. When asked about Hanley and the salary dump the guy said his team made zero salary dumps. "Every trade we made was to better the club." Oooh. Man the Fish brass really hate the kid.
There was a standing ovation around Dodgerdom yesterday as Jerry Sands was called up. Jerry the Savior. Or the Jerry that's better than Loney or Rivera. Or the Jerry that should have been playing all along.
In the first Jerry story the kid talks about how his recent success in New Mexico was due to him going back to his old stance. The one where he starts with the bat sitting or near sitting on his shoulder. Good luck with that kid. That makes for a slow bat. And your first at bats last night didn't look a lot better than a couple months ago when you struck out 8 out of 20 visits to the plate.
I hope he knows what he's doing. The coaches are probably saying WTF-ever Jerry just do it because you're running out of chances. I hope he succeeds.
I had really hoped that last night would be the start of a big run to the division title. I should just keep my thoughts to myself. What a depressing effort. C Cap didn't pitch good but he pitched good enough. The problem was where you didn't expect it to be and if that doesn't change things aren't going to progress well.
Matt Kemp, the Dodger's best player, and Hanley, the Dodger's best new acquisition left men on first and second with no outs TWICE. They didn't get the ball out of the infield. The Rockies pitcher shut them down. That just can't happen. Once, maybe, but not twice.
That's the season right there in a nutshell. If the Dodgers best players execute when they're suppose to the team will go far. If not, more depressing disappointment is on the program.
Monday, August 6, 2012
OK, No Waiting On Jerry Sands After all
Wrong again VODF.
Sands' past failures and the Dodgers continuing habit of doing what ever gyrations they can manage to keep old guys with contracts had me convinced that this move would not happen until September.
Gwynn had a least some value given his defensive prowess. But with Shane on board his role became first left-handed pinch hitter off the bench and that exposed Tony even more.
But what does Juan Uribe have to do to get "exposed."
Anyway, surprised or not, it's a good move. And hopefully it makes official the notion of not keeping marginal players because, well, their experienced or something.
That being said Jerry Sands is no mortal lock cinch to make all his new found supporters happy. He batted .200 when he was up earlier in the season and almost that in Spring Training. But like Dee, he had a good September last year.
That's why everyone including Don Baseball was annoyed when he showed almost none of that potential this March.
And so no one forgets, Jerry got 20 at bats earlier this season and struck out 8 times.
I think the fan base needed new hope as Randy Choate, Brandon League and Shane Victorino are off to really slow starts with the Dodgers. Hanley has 11 RBI in 11 games although that doesn't matter to stat kids unless they like you, of course. Hanley is batting .238 as a Dodger but his OBP is on rise from his Miami output this year. He hasn't been great but 11 RBI in 11 games is a strong contribution.
The Dodgers need to launch a streak right now. They're in a good spot. They've at least temporarily fixed their gaping hole in the starting rotation. Won three, now the Rockies at home. New players. New hope. This is not the time to let anything get away. Bear down. Prison Rules!
Sands' past failures and the Dodgers continuing habit of doing what ever gyrations they can manage to keep old guys with contracts had me convinced that this move would not happen until September.
Gwynn had a least some value given his defensive prowess. But with Shane on board his role became first left-handed pinch hitter off the bench and that exposed Tony even more.
But what does Juan Uribe have to do to get "exposed."
Anyway, surprised or not, it's a good move. And hopefully it makes official the notion of not keeping marginal players because, well, their experienced or something.
That being said Jerry Sands is no mortal lock cinch to make all his new found supporters happy. He batted .200 when he was up earlier in the season and almost that in Spring Training. But like Dee, he had a good September last year.
That's why everyone including Don Baseball was annoyed when he showed almost none of that potential this March.
And so no one forgets, Jerry got 20 at bats earlier this season and struck out 8 times.
I think the fan base needed new hope as Randy Choate, Brandon League and Shane Victorino are off to really slow starts with the Dodgers. Hanley has 11 RBI in 11 games although that doesn't matter to stat kids unless they like you, of course. Hanley is batting .238 as a Dodger but his OBP is on rise from his Miami output this year. He hasn't been great but 11 RBI in 11 games is a strong contribution.
The Dodgers need to launch a streak right now. They're in a good spot. They've at least temporarily fixed their gaping hole in the starting rotation. Won three, now the Rockies at home. New players. New hope. This is not the time to let anything get away. Bear down. Prison Rules!
Sunday, August 5, 2012
What's It Goin To Be Jerry?
Sometimes when a once-highly-thought-of-prospect goes back down to the minors for the second or third time they never get back to the Big Show.
Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.
Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.
So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.
On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.
That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)
So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.
Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?
Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.
2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.
Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.
All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.
What do you do?
Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.
Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.
Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.
So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.
On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.
That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)
So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.
Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?
Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.
2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.
Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.
All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.
What do you do?
Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Dodgers Might Have New No. 2
No not Joe Blanton. A lot of Stat Kids are saying Joe B. is just a little less good than The Dempster and look at all the prospects - that may never play in the Major Leagues - we saved. I hope they have fine lives as accountants. But I digress.
People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.
Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.
For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.
Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.
But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.
Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.
JOE BLANTON
Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.
Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.
I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.
Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.
So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak.
It's going to be close sports fans.
People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.
Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.
For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.
Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.
But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.
Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.
JOE BLANTON
Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.
Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.
I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.
Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.
So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak.
It's going to be close sports fans.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Stop Thinking And Just Do It
Look. You're making a big deal about saying you're in it to win it.
You blow the Dempster deal over a prospect and thereby tie a heavy lead weight to your leg while you're racing for a divisional title. You have no access to any other non-miracle needed pitchers. You've sunk a Pacific Ocean full of money into the team in the last few months. Are you telling me you're not going to buy the last expensive and risky ticket to a possible World Series?
Put the claim in on Cliff Lee and move on. The Phillies aren't going to let you have Lee for nothing without a really long and annoying negotiation. That buys you time at least.
And what if the Phillies surprise everyone and say, fine take him? Well, that's what you wanted. You didn't want the ba-zillion dollar contract you now own but that's the price of being a big boy. And the Guggenheim Partner group may be as a big a boy as you'll find in Major League Baseball ownership.
They understand the financial benefits of going deep in the playoffs. They're not afraid of payroll if it's going to reap other dollar rewards. These guys are investment bankers, financial killers roaming the corporate world looking to eat all the weak. Why did they overpay for the Dodgers? To make big time money down the road.
You think they're not going to push the button on Cliff Lee because he has an outrageous contract by our standards.
Ned and Stan aren't making the call on Cliff Lee. The Guggenheim owners are.
If you want to talk baseball let's do that. There are no free agents to speak of in the off season. Somebody from the minor leagues is going to have to play left field or first base next year. Or some much beloved prospects are going to have to be traded to get same.
This would be the Dodger's big free agent signing and you'd be hard pressed to find a better one. Yeah Lee's getting old and he's likely to be average or worse by the time the contract runs out. But there's a good chance the contract will look better than what Mr. Ethier's contract is going to look like then.
But if the Dodger claim Lee we're only half way there. The Phillies are going to want Zach Lee and others for the rights to the absurd contract they gave Lee. What do you do then? That one is hard because if you go all Dempster and screw it up and again, well, I'd have to fire you. Or the Guggenheim Partners will. Saving a buck or prospect but not winning is not a positive when you play with the big boys.
Anyway, we'll come to that bridge if and when we get there.
You blow the Dempster deal over a prospect and thereby tie a heavy lead weight to your leg while you're racing for a divisional title. You have no access to any other non-miracle needed pitchers. You've sunk a Pacific Ocean full of money into the team in the last few months. Are you telling me you're not going to buy the last expensive and risky ticket to a possible World Series?
Put the claim in on Cliff Lee and move on. The Phillies aren't going to let you have Lee for nothing without a really long and annoying negotiation. That buys you time at least.
And what if the Phillies surprise everyone and say, fine take him? Well, that's what you wanted. You didn't want the ba-zillion dollar contract you now own but that's the price of being a big boy. And the Guggenheim Partner group may be as a big a boy as you'll find in Major League Baseball ownership.
They understand the financial benefits of going deep in the playoffs. They're not afraid of payroll if it's going to reap other dollar rewards. These guys are investment bankers, financial killers roaming the corporate world looking to eat all the weak. Why did they overpay for the Dodgers? To make big time money down the road.
You think they're not going to push the button on Cliff Lee because he has an outrageous contract by our standards.
Ned and Stan aren't making the call on Cliff Lee. The Guggenheim owners are.
If you want to talk baseball let's do that. There are no free agents to speak of in the off season. Somebody from the minor leagues is going to have to play left field or first base next year. Or some much beloved prospects are going to have to be traded to get same.
This would be the Dodger's big free agent signing and you'd be hard pressed to find a better one. Yeah Lee's getting old and he's likely to be average or worse by the time the contract runs out. But there's a good chance the contract will look better than what Mr. Ethier's contract is going to look like then.
But if the Dodger claim Lee we're only half way there. The Phillies are going to want Zach Lee and others for the rights to the absurd contract they gave Lee. What do you do then? That one is hard because if you go all Dempster and screw it up and again, well, I'd have to fire you. Or the Guggenheim Partners will. Saving a buck or prospect but not winning is not a positive when you play with the big boys.
Anyway, we'll come to that bridge if and when we get there.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Part 3: Trade Deadline Over And Out
Well I was wrong. I thought it unlikely that the Dodgers would actually be able to pull off a major acquisition. But I'm not sure a team has ever hated a 28-year-old former super star so much that they were willing to give him and his once reasonable contract to a team for a pitcher like Nate E. and a No. 25 prospect.
Did any one else think that would happen? No.
And then I didn't think the Dodgers would botch the Dempster deal where at one point they had all the leverage. Guess they got greedy and over played their hand. The result being a gaping hole in the starting rotation going into a stretch run. Dumb. It has to be obvious to them at this point that they've screwed up the starting pitching.
Shane Victorino? Sure. That was logical and the level of transaction that usually happens. Brandon League. A little surprising. Usually you go for results rather than tools for the playoff run. League certainly has stuff. But not sure he knows where it's going currently. Choate. He is what he is and the Dodgers didn't have any of those.
Gave up EO. That hurt but had to happen given the situation. Lindblom. Think everyone had checked out of that hotel. Josh has a live arm but shows no real pitching skill as yet. It's quite possible he's as good as he's going to get. The rest were prospects outside the Top Ten List.
Bottom line. Two gigantic dark holes filled. Bullpen improved. Starting rotation degraded.
Prospects are so overvalued it's pathetic. How about the 2008 Top Ten Prospect List. That would be: Kershaw, LaRoche, Hu, Elbert, DeWitt, Withrow, McDonald, Meloan, D. Young, Pedro Baez. I can only imagine who was 11th through 20th. Yeah let's not trade any of those guys because, you know, maybe 15 percent of em are going to be good. Note. Nobody thinks Zach Lee is the second, third or fourth coming of Mr. Kershaw.
Hanley looks strong, fast and an adequate fielder at third. He's going to walk some. And he's going to hit a few game winners. But he's an undisciplined hitter who likes to hot dog a little. If he adds just 40 points to his stat line numbers he'll justify his contract. Maybe not even that due to the dark hole nature of third base in the major leagues. But please don't mistake him - at all - for Manny. And it may turn out he doesn't justify his contract if left to his way of doing things.
There are only two players that can carry the Dodgers to the playoffs: Kershaw and Kemp. The two true super stars currently on the team. They both have to do what they did last August and September. For Kemp that means hitting 7 or 8 home runs a month and basically bludgeoning the opposition in a way that allows the rest of the offense to follow right behind him. And Kershaw has to be as close to a sure thing as possible. They both did it last year.
So all the angst about what the Dodgers have or don't have is fine but it really doesn't matter. You can make a strong argument that the team is significantly improved over last year but so what. What matters is if Kemp and Kershaw can lead like they have in the past.
If they can't the Dodgers won't win it's as simple as that. If they can anything is possible.
Did any one else think that would happen? No.
And then I didn't think the Dodgers would botch the Dempster deal where at one point they had all the leverage. Guess they got greedy and over played their hand. The result being a gaping hole in the starting rotation going into a stretch run. Dumb. It has to be obvious to them at this point that they've screwed up the starting pitching.
Shane Victorino? Sure. That was logical and the level of transaction that usually happens. Brandon League. A little surprising. Usually you go for results rather than tools for the playoff run. League certainly has stuff. But not sure he knows where it's going currently. Choate. He is what he is and the Dodgers didn't have any of those.
Gave up EO. That hurt but had to happen given the situation. Lindblom. Think everyone had checked out of that hotel. Josh has a live arm but shows no real pitching skill as yet. It's quite possible he's as good as he's going to get. The rest were prospects outside the Top Ten List.
Bottom line. Two gigantic dark holes filled. Bullpen improved. Starting rotation degraded.
Prospects are so overvalued it's pathetic. How about the 2008 Top Ten Prospect List. That would be: Kershaw, LaRoche, Hu, Elbert, DeWitt, Withrow, McDonald, Meloan, D. Young, Pedro Baez. I can only imagine who was 11th through 20th. Yeah let's not trade any of those guys because, you know, maybe 15 percent of em are going to be good. Note. Nobody thinks Zach Lee is the second, third or fourth coming of Mr. Kershaw.
Hanley looks strong, fast and an adequate fielder at third. He's going to walk some. And he's going to hit a few game winners. But he's an undisciplined hitter who likes to hot dog a little. If he adds just 40 points to his stat line numbers he'll justify his contract. Maybe not even that due to the dark hole nature of third base in the major leagues. But please don't mistake him - at all - for Manny. And it may turn out he doesn't justify his contract if left to his way of doing things.
There are only two players that can carry the Dodgers to the playoffs: Kershaw and Kemp. The two true super stars currently on the team. They both have to do what they did last August and September. For Kemp that means hitting 7 or 8 home runs a month and basically bludgeoning the opposition in a way that allows the rest of the offense to follow right behind him. And Kershaw has to be as close to a sure thing as possible. They both did it last year.
So all the angst about what the Dodgers have or don't have is fine but it really doesn't matter. You can make a strong argument that the team is significantly improved over last year but so what. What matters is if Kemp and Kershaw can lead like they have in the past.
If they can't the Dodgers won't win it's as simple as that. If they can anything is possible.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Part 2: VietnamDodger Shows Stat Boys How It's Done
A month or so ago there was nobody on the Dodger blogs saying, hey let's go get Shane Victorino.
The idea seemed repulsive to most. Can't say I liked the idea because of Shane's punkish nature. But one person said he was the right guy and the Dodgers would trade for him. Come on down VietnamDodger. VND says she's a young doctor from San Francisco doing research in Vietnam. OK, I know, it's the Internet. Let's go with it for now.
Anyway, it wasn't just someone's lame idea tossed out like a thousand others. She had the WHYS. The Whys are so often not a part of the one-dimensional Stat Boy lexicon. They rather just throw down a stat line and claim that number answers all of Man's questions on Earth.
Her Why amounted to this: left field, lead off, speed, defense, cheap, fills a giant black hole, Phillies going bust and the kind of player the Dodgers need.
VietnamDodger runs around with a bunch of Stat Boys at Tragic Illness. The Stat Boys rained down on poor VietnamDodger. No way they said. With their best scientific argument being, We Don't Like Him. Predictable Stat Boys. They call you a dumbass when you don't buy their advanced metric "luck" stat or whatever but if it's something they don't have a number for they go all, We Don't Like Him. Picture a whiny boy's chorus.
On July 13th I bought in to VietnamDodger's idea. Wrote about it here. It made perfect sense. It was the logical outcome.
The Stat Boys hated the idea so much they actually said they preferred Alfonso Soriano. Yes, the same people who go on and on about the picking-up-lame-contract-dead-horse, wanted to pay Soriano for two more years after this. Cute aren't they.
Never was Chase Headley going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Cole Hamels going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Justin Upton going to be traded to the Dodgers. On and On. But VietnamDodger had the Shane deal pegged artfully and early. And she never backed down. She needs to move to a better neighborhood.
THE DEMPSTER PROBLEM
The Dodgers did well at the trading deadline but it may have all gone for not because they made the stupid mistake of not getting Mr. Dempster from the Cubs. I guess the testosterone between the two teams just got so thick that no one could be the better man and make the deal happen.
So you fix the offense, improve your bullpen but leave a gaping hole in your starting pitching. WTF. The Dodgers could still win the division with what they have but going into the playoffs, WTF.
Maybe one of the minor league pitchers will suddenly grow up. Maybe Barney Fife discovers that missing 95 mph fastball that Keith Law says he has. Maybe C Bills' trend towards challenging the strike zone keeps moving forward. Maybe Rubby de la rosa will be thrown into the fire after all and survive. Any of these could happen.
But why wait for miracles if you don't have too. Hanley is not going to carry the Dodgers single-handedly through the playoffs or anywhere else for that matter.
Clown Mistake.
Jonah Keri's Take On The Shane Trade
You can read it right here.
The idea seemed repulsive to most. Can't say I liked the idea because of Shane's punkish nature. But one person said he was the right guy and the Dodgers would trade for him. Come on down VietnamDodger. VND says she's a young doctor from San Francisco doing research in Vietnam. OK, I know, it's the Internet. Let's go with it for now.
Anyway, it wasn't just someone's lame idea tossed out like a thousand others. She had the WHYS. The Whys are so often not a part of the one-dimensional Stat Boy lexicon. They rather just throw down a stat line and claim that number answers all of Man's questions on Earth.
Her Why amounted to this: left field, lead off, speed, defense, cheap, fills a giant black hole, Phillies going bust and the kind of player the Dodgers need.
VietnamDodger runs around with a bunch of Stat Boys at Tragic Illness. The Stat Boys rained down on poor VietnamDodger. No way they said. With their best scientific argument being, We Don't Like Him. Predictable Stat Boys. They call you a dumbass when you don't buy their advanced metric "luck" stat or whatever but if it's something they don't have a number for they go all, We Don't Like Him. Picture a whiny boy's chorus.
On July 13th I bought in to VietnamDodger's idea. Wrote about it here. It made perfect sense. It was the logical outcome.
The Stat Boys hated the idea so much they actually said they preferred Alfonso Soriano. Yes, the same people who go on and on about the picking-up-lame-contract-dead-horse, wanted to pay Soriano for two more years after this. Cute aren't they.
Never was Chase Headley going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Cole Hamels going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Justin Upton going to be traded to the Dodgers. On and On. But VietnamDodger had the Shane deal pegged artfully and early. And she never backed down. She needs to move to a better neighborhood.
THE DEMPSTER PROBLEM
The Dodgers did well at the trading deadline but it may have all gone for not because they made the stupid mistake of not getting Mr. Dempster from the Cubs. I guess the testosterone between the two teams just got so thick that no one could be the better man and make the deal happen.
So you fix the offense, improve your bullpen but leave a gaping hole in your starting pitching. WTF. The Dodgers could still win the division with what they have but going into the playoffs, WTF.
Maybe one of the minor league pitchers will suddenly grow up. Maybe Barney Fife discovers that missing 95 mph fastball that Keith Law says he has. Maybe C Bills' trend towards challenging the strike zone keeps moving forward. Maybe Rubby de la rosa will be thrown into the fire after all and survive. Any of these could happen.
But why wait for miracles if you don't have too. Hanley is not going to carry the Dodgers single-handedly through the playoffs or anywhere else for that matter.
Clown Mistake.
Jonah Keri's Take On The Shane Trade
You can read it right here.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Part 1: Stat Kids Head Expodes Video At 11
This has been a rough 48 hours or so for the dedicated Stat Kids.
You know prospects were bound to be traded and that can just rip the guts out of a Stat Kid. Oh The Value. Oh The Rentals. Oh Ned being Ned. Sky is falling, stuff like that.
Check this poor kid out. Seems he was a little upset over the Brandon League trade.
Of course John has never seen Landry play.
JohnM
Decent upside. If you have a good cry over trading your 20th or 30th best prospect - depending on who you talk to - for a major league pitcher, you're in for a very painful baseball hobby.
I think League improves the middle of the Dodger bullpen. He's an upgrade over Lindblom, Javy, Elbert and Wright. That's not nothing in a pennant race. Tragic Illness thinks League is just a GUY. Of course what Tragic does best is disparage players and so he doesn't give the GUY credit at all. We'll see how that works out.
Baseball isn't about building the most complete bunch of minor leaguers who will never play in the big leagues. It's about winning. This is a trade, however small, that helps the Dodgers' cause.
One of John's friends in the chat room tells it better than me:
JeffKlein
JONAH POWER POLL.
Interesting stuff here.
You know prospects were bound to be traded and that can just rip the guts out of a Stat Kid. Oh The Value. Oh The Rentals. Oh Ned being Ned. Sky is falling, stuff like that.
Check this poor kid out. Seems he was a little upset over the Brandon League trade.
JohnM
Leon Landry is a third round draft pick from 2009. He is currently ranked 20th on MLB.com top 20 dodger prospects. He is described as a player who can hit for average and not strike out. He doesn't have a ton of homer power, but can hit the ball in the gaps for doubles and triples. He has good instincts in the outfield and on the basepaths allowing his speed to play up even more. He's a very good defender who could profile as a top of the order guy in the future.
JohnM
efb Landry could become an above average 5 tool outfielder
Of course John has never seen Landry play.
JohnM
Deuce phattonez7 He was good in 09 and 11. And he may even get things back on track, but even if he does the most value he can get us as a TWO MONTH RENTAL is a .5 WAR. And that is not worth a prospect with a decent upside in a farm system that is lacking good position players.
phattonez7 JohnM You regard him far too little. League sucks. He's about a 0.2-0.4 WAR and if he regresses to his xFIP he could be even worse. That is not worth a prospect with any kind of upside. I'm not opposed to training Landry or anyone in the dodger farm system, as long as we don't trade them for crap.
Decent upside. If you have a good cry over trading your 20th or 30th best prospect - depending on who you talk to - for a major league pitcher, you're in for a very painful baseball hobby.
I think League improves the middle of the Dodger bullpen. He's an upgrade over Lindblom, Javy, Elbert and Wright. That's not nothing in a pennant race. Tragic Illness thinks League is just a GUY. Of course what Tragic does best is disparage players and so he doesn't give the GUY credit at all. We'll see how that works out.
Baseball isn't about building the most complete bunch of minor leaguers who will never play in the big leagues. It's about winning. This is a trade, however small, that helps the Dodgers' cause.
One of John's friends in the chat room tells it better than me:
JeffKlein
JohnM WAR is only useful as a macro stat over several seasons - there's too much variation - and it's not the end all be all. You can't live your baseball life by Sabermetrics. When we are playing the Giants and the momentum shifts towards SF and League comes in and kills their momentum, what stat are you going to use for that? What stat to you use when someone like Hairston steps it up playing well above his talent level for a month while Kemp is on the DL.
Remember George Sherrill, he had a great WAR the season he came over to the Dodgers. And look what happened. WAR means almost nothing in the short term.
League is a veteran presence on the mound, more effective and reliable than our other veteran relievers like Wright. League might come over and totally crap out. But it's not like we gave up much anyway.
JONAH POWER POLL.
Interesting stuff here.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Trayvon Robinson Come On Down
The thing about Stat Boys is even when proven wrong by, you know, actual events, they'll argue until their parent's cellar burns down around them.
I laughed out loud yesterday when I read someone still mad about Ned trading Trayvon Robinson for Tim Fedx, Stephen Barney Fife and Juan Rodriguez. The argument then and today is still it doesn't matter how the trade actually, you know, turns out, the point is the Dodgers didn't get enough value back for one of their top prospects.
WAH.
Tim Fedx will most likely be the Dodger backup catcher next year, Fife has won two important games this year for the Dodgers and Rodriguez is still at Top 20 prospect in the Dodger organization. Meanwhile, Trayvon continues to do what he does best - strike out.
Ned, who we all know has a spotty record, had a reasonable explanation for the situation. The Dodgers needed a catching prospect. Trayvon had been passed up by Jerry "I'm Still In The Minors" Sands. A couple pitchers thrown in. Why not. Obviously the Dodger organization didn't think Trayvon was going to be a star otherwise they wouldn't have traded him. I bought into it just because I had no expectations for Trayvon. And I knew it wasn't Ned doing the scouting.
"But they didn't get value!"
Is that the same as it didn't look good on paper? Whose paper? What color is the paper? Who gave you the paper? Did you even see the paper? Maybe Stat Boy Patron Saint Keith Law told you what was on the paper and you bit. How does anyone on AssClown Island know anything about prospects except what they read on their 'puter.
No one knows what's going to happen with prospects except that only a tiny percentage will ever start a major league game.
I expect a lot of these Stat Boys try to emulate Keith Law. Here's what he had to say on the matter.
The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fifeprobably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.
Keith Law is a professional. Don't try this at home. BTW who told Mr. Law that Fife throws anything close to 95.
Poor Jerry Sands
One of the reasons I applaud players like Luis Cruz and Elian Herrera at every opportunity is that they never got anything handed to them. They persevered and when they finally got a chance showed that they could play Major League baseball.
For that they can't be mentioned without the accompanying lifetime minor leaguer reference or something insulting like that.
I'm even more bitter about it when Elian gets sent down even though in many, many ways he's a better player than Juan Uribe. That's some giants mounds of BS right there.
Elian may never get to the Majors again, yet, come hell or high water Juan Uribe gets to keep sitting on the bench offering nothing at all to the Dodgers.
So now Jerry Sands hits two grand slams and people start talking again about putting him in left field. This Spring the Dodgers were begging him to win the left field job. Instead, he sucked. He got another chance early in the season. He sucked.
I want Jerry Sands to succeed but now he's got to prove it. He's hitting below the Mendoza line (.290 is the Mendoza line in that league) for the Isotopes. Some people speculate that it's his stubbornness that's holding him back. I don't know. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't get a September call up. The Dodgers might be pissed off enough with him to give him the Ivan DeJesus Jr. treatment.
Don't Do It Ned
I think the Dodgers need Dempster. But if the cost is Alfonso Soriano and any significant part of his contract run away Ned. FAST. The thought of paying Soriano, even Uribe money for the next two years is frightening. Hey maybe it pays off. Still, frightening.
Just because the new Dodgers regime has a lot of cash it doesn't mean it should potentially sacrifice some important free agent signing money. Hanley, obviously yes. Alfonso, please no.
I laughed out loud yesterday when I read someone still mad about Ned trading Trayvon Robinson for Tim Fedx, Stephen Barney Fife and Juan Rodriguez. The argument then and today is still it doesn't matter how the trade actually, you know, turns out, the point is the Dodgers didn't get enough value back for one of their top prospects.
WAH.
Tim Fedx will most likely be the Dodger backup catcher next year, Fife has won two important games this year for the Dodgers and Rodriguez is still at Top 20 prospect in the Dodger organization. Meanwhile, Trayvon continues to do what he does best - strike out.
Ned, who we all know has a spotty record, had a reasonable explanation for the situation. The Dodgers needed a catching prospect. Trayvon had been passed up by Jerry "I'm Still In The Minors" Sands. A couple pitchers thrown in. Why not. Obviously the Dodger organization didn't think Trayvon was going to be a star otherwise they wouldn't have traded him. I bought into it just because I had no expectations for Trayvon. And I knew it wasn't Ned doing the scouting.
"But they didn't get value!"
Is that the same as it didn't look good on paper? Whose paper? What color is the paper? Who gave you the paper? Did you even see the paper? Maybe Stat Boy Patron Saint Keith Law told you what was on the paper and you bit. How does anyone on AssClown Island know anything about prospects except what they read on their 'puter.
No one knows what's going to happen with prospects except that only a tiny percentage will ever start a major league game.
I expect a lot of these Stat Boys try to emulate Keith Law. Here's what he had to say on the matter.
The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fifeprobably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.
Keith Law is a professional. Don't try this at home. BTW who told Mr. Law that Fife throws anything close to 95.
Poor Jerry Sands
One of the reasons I applaud players like Luis Cruz and Elian Herrera at every opportunity is that they never got anything handed to them. They persevered and when they finally got a chance showed that they could play Major League baseball.
For that they can't be mentioned without the accompanying lifetime minor leaguer reference or something insulting like that.
I'm even more bitter about it when Elian gets sent down even though in many, many ways he's a better player than Juan Uribe. That's some giants mounds of BS right there.
Elian may never get to the Majors again, yet, come hell or high water Juan Uribe gets to keep sitting on the bench offering nothing at all to the Dodgers.
So now Jerry Sands hits two grand slams and people start talking again about putting him in left field. This Spring the Dodgers were begging him to win the left field job. Instead, he sucked. He got another chance early in the season. He sucked.
I want Jerry Sands to succeed but now he's got to prove it. He's hitting below the Mendoza line (.290 is the Mendoza line in that league) for the Isotopes. Some people speculate that it's his stubbornness that's holding him back. I don't know. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't get a September call up. The Dodgers might be pissed off enough with him to give him the Ivan DeJesus Jr. treatment.
Don't Do It Ned
I think the Dodgers need Dempster. But if the cost is Alfonso Soriano and any significant part of his contract run away Ned. FAST. The thought of paying Soriano, even Uribe money for the next two years is frightening. Hey maybe it pays off. Still, frightening.
Just because the new Dodgers regime has a lot of cash it doesn't mean it should potentially sacrifice some important free agent signing money. Hanley, obviously yes. Alfonso, please no.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Watching The LA/SF Game On Sunday
Glad to see the Miami Fish are already writing poems and singing songs for Mr. Eo Evaldi. His new team had better things to say about him than Don Baseball ever did. The Dodgers have to make that trade. Fine. But the Stat Boys never gave EO his due.
Well he doesn't strike out enough people to be good. Idiots.
He only has two pitches. Idiots.
If they did their scouting somewhere other than on BR looking at one dimensional statistics out there on AssClown Island, well, .... EO obviously has electric stuff and is developing in an obvious learning curve. Making judgements out of context using static stats is, well, unsound. EO may never get there but he definitely has a high ceiling. Check out the Miami Herald on EO.
CRUUUUUUZZZZ.
Ooops, Luis just booted one. I hope that doesn't start the cry for Hanley moving to shortstop. Luis Cruz is yet another Dodger not getting his just accolades from the Dodger Fans - Stat Boy Division. His defense is steady and his offense, well, for shortstops, it's not bad at all.
Stat Boys freak out if an OBP falls below .300. If Luis had 6 more walks mixed into his small sample of stats the Stat Boys would be drooling all over him. Those 6 walks wouldn't have meant much in the overall scheme of things but the key hits he's provided have been monumental in the run-free zone the Dodgers have been living in.
A shortstop with a .721 OPS is often revered. Because of the thickness of the stat boy goggles they want to move him out of the lineup. Sheesh.
CHADDDDDDDDD
Yes, the "Casual Fans'' have had a problem with Mr. C Bills. I don't mind Chad. He is what he is. But he got into the 8th inning yesterday and he only had two K's. No walks. The game before another good outing. Four K's. No walks.
One of the most over-used stats at AssClown Island is the K/9. Not that it's not a good indicator. It's the belief you can't be good without it. Walks are by far more important. If you're not walking people you always have a chance. If you're walking a lot of people you have no chance.
So Bills gets to the 8th with only a couple K's. The calls from you know where sound like Oh he must have got lucky. Will the noise never stop?.
LUCCCCKKKKY STAATTTS
If the "Lucky Stats'' are based on subjective and generalized calls by statisticians how are they worth anything meaningful. If that's all you got you might as well stick with "luck evens out."
Well he doesn't strike out enough people to be good. Idiots.
He only has two pitches. Idiots.
If they did their scouting somewhere other than on BR looking at one dimensional statistics out there on AssClown Island, well, .... EO obviously has electric stuff and is developing in an obvious learning curve. Making judgements out of context using static stats is, well, unsound. EO may never get there but he definitely has a high ceiling. Check out the Miami Herald on EO.
CRUUUUUUZZZZ.
Ooops, Luis just booted one. I hope that doesn't start the cry for Hanley moving to shortstop. Luis Cruz is yet another Dodger not getting his just accolades from the Dodger Fans - Stat Boy Division. His defense is steady and his offense, well, for shortstops, it's not bad at all.
Stat Boys freak out if an OBP falls below .300. If Luis had 6 more walks mixed into his small sample of stats the Stat Boys would be drooling all over him. Those 6 walks wouldn't have meant much in the overall scheme of things but the key hits he's provided have been monumental in the run-free zone the Dodgers have been living in.
A shortstop with a .721 OPS is often revered. Because of the thickness of the stat boy goggles they want to move him out of the lineup. Sheesh.
CHADDDDDDDDD
Yes, the "Casual Fans'' have had a problem with Mr. C Bills. I don't mind Chad. He is what he is. But he got into the 8th inning yesterday and he only had two K's. No walks. The game before another good outing. Four K's. No walks.
One of the most over-used stats at AssClown Island is the K/9. Not that it's not a good indicator. It's the belief you can't be good without it. Walks are by far more important. If you're not walking people you always have a chance. If you're walking a lot of people you have no chance.
So Bills gets to the 8th with only a couple K's. The calls from you know where sound like Oh he must have got lucky. Will the noise never stop?.
LUCCCCKKKKY STAATTTS
If the "Lucky Stats'' are based on subjective and generalized calls by statisticians how are they worth anything meaningful. If that's all you got you might as well stick with "luck evens out."
Friday, July 27, 2012
Playing Chicken Is Fun But Everything Still Points To Dempster
OK, the Dodgers said no because they have the leverage. Dempster now says he'll go anywhere because he's an AssClown. The Braves said See Ya. The Cubs say Atlanta is still an option. Dempster is never going to sign with the Cubs. The Cubs now hate Dempster and the Dodgers. Blah, Blah, Blah.
Testosterone aside I think the Dempster still ends up in Los Angeles.
Now a different result could happen five minutes from now but unless someone puts extreme buttheadedness before business this is the logical outcome.
Garza was a solid option but once he got hurt that trade went poof for now. Unlikely to be any other Hanley situations out there where a team wants to get rid of the guy so bad they'll do a giant salary dump. There might be another hitter out there that falls into that category but not pitchers.
The Dodgers don't have the goods to compete for the Miami and Tampa Bay pitchers. They couldn't compete on Greinke. Not many options. Everyone should just find a way to save some face and make the Dempster deal. And by Tuesday I think - I hope - everyone comes to that conclusion.
Please no D pitchers. Just play nice and get Dempster. And please don't do the negotiation for extension gambit. Don't sign any more pitchers for next year until after the season. Please.
Now regarding the position player the Dodgers seek. That could be a shocker. That player could come from anywhere. I've proposed Josh W. all along but nobody is talking about it. People talk about Shane and I think it makes sense but the Karma potential is bad. There are a number of nasty contracts out there that the Dodgers might decide on. But, you know, there are only so many bad contracts the Dodgers can support without damaging their opportunities in free agency.
Also, several teams are now precariously perched on that seller/buyer tight rope and so there will be new potential trade candidates every 24 hours or so. Or at least that will be the talk. Boys will be boys so I expect the Dempster thing to go right down to the wire. Every one has to twist the knife a few more times before every one is happy.
I Like Jonah Keri.
I think you can say Jonah Keri is a stat boy. So why does VODF pimp a stat boy? Because he's a professional, not an amateur. He's sees a wide playing field. And he's a sweet writer. Oh did I forget he knows something about baseball.
Here's his take on the Hanley trade. It's chock full of advanced metrics for you amateur stat boys so take a look. Have I mentioned how much I like the writing at Grantland? Probably.
BRING THE HEAT
I don't know how many of you have tried to do something very skillful and physical while in a stadium before thousands of people with the temperature over 100 degrees and the humidity gawd awful. Raise your hands. Right, none.
The Dodger starters struggled because of the extreme weather conditions. Most of them started strong and died in the middle innings. For people to say they are athletes and should be able to handle that I LAUGH OUT LOUD.
For people who say well the Cardinal pitchers did OK, I LAUGH OUT LOUD. People, people. Try it and then talk to me. Do it for a few seasons and then tell me you don't have an advantage over visitors.
Kershaw, C CAP. No worries.
Testosterone aside I think the Dempster still ends up in Los Angeles.
Now a different result could happen five minutes from now but unless someone puts extreme buttheadedness before business this is the logical outcome.
Garza was a solid option but once he got hurt that trade went poof for now. Unlikely to be any other Hanley situations out there where a team wants to get rid of the guy so bad they'll do a giant salary dump. There might be another hitter out there that falls into that category but not pitchers.
The Dodgers don't have the goods to compete for the Miami and Tampa Bay pitchers. They couldn't compete on Greinke. Not many options. Everyone should just find a way to save some face and make the Dempster deal. And by Tuesday I think - I hope - everyone comes to that conclusion.
Please no D pitchers. Just play nice and get Dempster. And please don't do the negotiation for extension gambit. Don't sign any more pitchers for next year until after the season. Please.
Now regarding the position player the Dodgers seek. That could be a shocker. That player could come from anywhere. I've proposed Josh W. all along but nobody is talking about it. People talk about Shane and I think it makes sense but the Karma potential is bad. There are a number of nasty contracts out there that the Dodgers might decide on. But, you know, there are only so many bad contracts the Dodgers can support without damaging their opportunities in free agency.
Also, several teams are now precariously perched on that seller/buyer tight rope and so there will be new potential trade candidates every 24 hours or so. Or at least that will be the talk. Boys will be boys so I expect the Dempster thing to go right down to the wire. Every one has to twist the knife a few more times before every one is happy.
I Like Jonah Keri.
I think you can say Jonah Keri is a stat boy. So why does VODF pimp a stat boy? Because he's a professional, not an amateur. He's sees a wide playing field. And he's a sweet writer. Oh did I forget he knows something about baseball.
Here's his take on the Hanley trade. It's chock full of advanced metrics for you amateur stat boys so take a look. Have I mentioned how much I like the writing at Grantland? Probably.
BRING THE HEAT
I don't know how many of you have tried to do something very skillful and physical while in a stadium before thousands of people with the temperature over 100 degrees and the humidity gawd awful. Raise your hands. Right, none.
The Dodger starters struggled because of the extreme weather conditions. Most of them started strong and died in the middle innings. For people to say they are athletes and should be able to handle that I LAUGH OUT LOUD.
For people who say well the Cardinal pitchers did OK, I LAUGH OUT LOUD. People, people. Try it and then talk to me. Do it for a few seasons and then tell me you don't have an advantage over visitors.
Kershaw, C CAP. No worries.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Hanley/Dodger Honeymoon Well Under Way
(I expect the Dodgers will be completing a trade any moment now, but we'll carry on anyway.)
There's a lot of love in the air for the newly-acquired Mr. Hanley.
He clearly looks dangerous when in the batter's box. The whispers about his dropping numbers have mostly been about slowing bat speed whether it be from a shoulder injury or some other reason. It's always possible that the torrent of talent that once naturally sprang from his body has slowed down and what was once effortless is now a little harder to accomplish and he just doesn't know it yet.
Still, he's a legit threat in the middle of the lineup and that's where he should stay. If Hanley regains half the stat level he once boasted he'll be worth the $35 M and EO especially given third base is such a big, black hole. If he doesn't the Dodgers will once again pay the ugly cost of wishing upon a former star. I'm going to put the odds at 60-40 that Hanley doesn't drop another big nasty egg on the Dodgers.
One place he surely WON'T help is on defense.
Donnie Baseball being the stubborn guy he is will definitely cram Hanley into the starting shortstop hole. And D's main reason for doing this is to create the dreaded "Flexibility." I like Don. He's a good manager but he does have some blind spots. This one being Hanley at SS allows him to mix and match with Uribe, Kennedy, Cruz, Hairston, etc., at 3B.
JESUS CHRIST DON!. Three of those guys should never play 3B in the Majors again. And the other one doesn't want to. He hate it. OK, I'm just saying, why put a bad defender at maybe the most important defensive position on the field. Because that's what a player's manager does I guess. Please put Hanley at 3B and lock the door. Not going to happen. Otherwise, how would Uribe get in the lineup? One of the real mysteries. C'mon Don.
Nice, the Dodgers finally have a real situational lefty. Really needed that. Now comes Dempster and then one other position player.
HOPEFULLY THE STAT BOYS WON'T GIVE UP AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE THREE LOSSES AND WON'T WANT TO SELL OFF ALL THE DODGERS BECAUSE IT'S THE SMART THING TO DO.
In an equally frustrating note, Don Baseball is making it very clear that Dee Gordon is not a lock to get his shortstop job back. I guess that's healthy, really. Gordon should have to play for his job but the future All-Star makes the Dodger's potential greater when he's playing. Nobody talks much about Dee getting to a lot of balls that Cruz hasn't been able to get to. And Hanley surely won't be able to get to. Yes, Dee may throw the ball into the dugout for a few more months but his talent and natural ability is breathtaking.
One of the most Assclown things I read on the Interweb is how Dee Gordon is the worst shortstop in baseball. Why? Because the stats show it. This is one of the best examples of how one dimensional stats taken out of context reveal utter stupidity.
Sorry to see EO go but it's the opportunity cost. The Dodgers have the extra $36 Mil hanging around so that sealed the deal. The Fish knew what they were doing when they picked EO.
TRAGIC HEROES
Happy to see THE REAL PAUL standing up to some of the Stat Boys about there possibly being factors in baseball that affect outcomes that can't be STATICIZED.
And always my former BUD VIETNAMDODGER for occasionally smacking down the nerds about stats. There's not a stat in the world that can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Life is in REAL TIME BABY! LIVE IT!
There's a lot of love in the air for the newly-acquired Mr. Hanley.
He clearly looks dangerous when in the batter's box. The whispers about his dropping numbers have mostly been about slowing bat speed whether it be from a shoulder injury or some other reason. It's always possible that the torrent of talent that once naturally sprang from his body has slowed down and what was once effortless is now a little harder to accomplish and he just doesn't know it yet.
Still, he's a legit threat in the middle of the lineup and that's where he should stay. If Hanley regains half the stat level he once boasted he'll be worth the $35 M and EO especially given third base is such a big, black hole. If he doesn't the Dodgers will once again pay the ugly cost of wishing upon a former star. I'm going to put the odds at 60-40 that Hanley doesn't drop another big nasty egg on the Dodgers.
One place he surely WON'T help is on defense.
Donnie Baseball being the stubborn guy he is will definitely cram Hanley into the starting shortstop hole. And D's main reason for doing this is to create the dreaded "Flexibility." I like Don. He's a good manager but he does have some blind spots. This one being Hanley at SS allows him to mix and match with Uribe, Kennedy, Cruz, Hairston, etc., at 3B.
JESUS CHRIST DON!. Three of those guys should never play 3B in the Majors again. And the other one doesn't want to. He hate it. OK, I'm just saying, why put a bad defender at maybe the most important defensive position on the field. Because that's what a player's manager does I guess. Please put Hanley at 3B and lock the door. Not going to happen. Otherwise, how would Uribe get in the lineup? One of the real mysteries. C'mon Don.
Nice, the Dodgers finally have a real situational lefty. Really needed that. Now comes Dempster and then one other position player.
HOPEFULLY THE STAT BOYS WON'T GIVE UP AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE THREE LOSSES AND WON'T WANT TO SELL OFF ALL THE DODGERS BECAUSE IT'S THE SMART THING TO DO.
In an equally frustrating note, Don Baseball is making it very clear that Dee Gordon is not a lock to get his shortstop job back. I guess that's healthy, really. Gordon should have to play for his job but the future All-Star makes the Dodger's potential greater when he's playing. Nobody talks much about Dee getting to a lot of balls that Cruz hasn't been able to get to. And Hanley surely won't be able to get to. Yes, Dee may throw the ball into the dugout for a few more months but his talent and natural ability is breathtaking.
One of the most Assclown things I read on the Interweb is how Dee Gordon is the worst shortstop in baseball. Why? Because the stats show it. This is one of the best examples of how one dimensional stats taken out of context reveal utter stupidity.
Sorry to see EO go but it's the opportunity cost. The Dodgers have the extra $36 Mil hanging around so that sealed the deal. The Fish knew what they were doing when they picked EO.
TRAGIC HEROES
Happy to see THE REAL PAUL standing up to some of the Stat Boys about there possibly being factors in baseball that affect outcomes that can't be STATICIZED.
And always my former BUD VIETNAMDODGER for occasionally smacking down the nerds about stats. There's not a stat in the world that can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Life is in REAL TIME BABY! LIVE IT!
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Way Too Early To Call This A Great Trade
First of all, the Dodgers pretty much had to make the Hanley trade for several reasons even though it could very well blow up in their face.
Secondly, I hope Hanley turns over a new leaf and stops being a butthead, regains the form he hasn't had for two years and plays an important role in getting the Dodgers to the playoffs.
Thirdly, I laugh out loud at the stat boys who are forever blasting Ned over a million here or a couple million there and now say almost nothing about the $40 Million the Dodgers have thrown up in the air in hopes Hanley regains his form. Tragic Illness has written thousands of words and beat a herd of dead horses about C Cap and others over paltry amounts. Now when it comes to a financial risk only a desperate Dodger team would make the $40 Million or so hardly gets mentioned.
Fourthly, when is the last time a former star has had two bad years in a row and come back and regained his form. I'm looking at you Andruw Jones.
Fifthly, I'll bet anyone that can post $1,000 that Nate Eovaldi will be a better major league pitcher than Zach Lee.
Sixthly, wait a minute. I have to interject something here. I just read from the fountain of silliness Phattonez7. He just made the argument that Hanley's two below average years is mostly due to luck because that's what his advanced metrics say. Quit it Phatt, you're killing me.
Sixthly, habitually disgruntled players usually are on their best behavior when they join a new team. Hopefully, that will mean we see Hanley at his best whatever that currently is. Plus, gives Donnie Baseball and Kemp a chance to mold him the best they can.
Seventhly, the Dodgers did not make a stunningly smart move here. What they did was throw $40 Million at another baseball team for the player that team was really, really hoping to get rid of.
Eighthly, I wish I had a dollar for every time I read stat boys talking crap about trading for players that use to be good.
Ninethly, if I was the Cubs I'd tell the Dodgers and Dempster to shove it. I'd tell the Dodgers beat the Braves offer or get lost. Mr. Dempster we're calling your bluff. Hope you have a nice time rotting away with our horrible club this summer.
Tenthly, the Dodgers had to do this trade to compete this year. They had to way overpay ($40 M). They needed to show those damn "Casual Fans" that they'd spend crazy for the good of the order. It builds excitement in the fan base. Best of all it made the Stat Boys act like fans rather than the metric citing bobbleheads they normally are.
Secondly, I hope Hanley turns over a new leaf and stops being a butthead, regains the form he hasn't had for two years and plays an important role in getting the Dodgers to the playoffs.
Thirdly, I laugh out loud at the stat boys who are forever blasting Ned over a million here or a couple million there and now say almost nothing about the $40 Million the Dodgers have thrown up in the air in hopes Hanley regains his form. Tragic Illness has written thousands of words and beat a herd of dead horses about C Cap and others over paltry amounts. Now when it comes to a financial risk only a desperate Dodger team would make the $40 Million or so hardly gets mentioned.
Fourthly, when is the last time a former star has had two bad years in a row and come back and regained his form. I'm looking at you Andruw Jones.
Fifthly, I'll bet anyone that can post $1,000 that Nate Eovaldi will be a better major league pitcher than Zach Lee.
Sixthly, wait a minute. I have to interject something here. I just read from the fountain of silliness Phattonez7. He just made the argument that Hanley's two below average years is mostly due to luck because that's what his advanced metrics say. Quit it Phatt, you're killing me.
Sixthly, habitually disgruntled players usually are on their best behavior when they join a new team. Hopefully, that will mean we see Hanley at his best whatever that currently is. Plus, gives Donnie Baseball and Kemp a chance to mold him the best they can.
Seventhly, the Dodgers did not make a stunningly smart move here. What they did was throw $40 Million at another baseball team for the player that team was really, really hoping to get rid of.
Eighthly, I wish I had a dollar for every time I read stat boys talking crap about trading for players that use to be good.
Ninethly, if I was the Cubs I'd tell the Dodgers and Dempster to shove it. I'd tell the Dodgers beat the Braves offer or get lost. Mr. Dempster we're calling your bluff. Hope you have a nice time rotting away with our horrible club this summer.
Tenthly, the Dodgers had to do this trade to compete this year. They had to way overpay ($40 M). They needed to show those damn "Casual Fans" that they'd spend crazy for the good of the order. It builds excitement in the fan base. Best of all it made the Stat Boys act like fans rather than the metric citing bobbleheads they normally are.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
SELL All The DODGERS
Yes I'm going to scribble out a few more posts after all.
Admittedly, I was a little bummed by the way things were going. The Dodgers were losing every game there for awhile. The stat kids were saying stupid stuff like trade Capuano and Eovaldi because this season's over. The fair weather fans were picking at and kicking almost every Dodger and member of the organization.
Sickening really. I give WBBsAs some credit, although he's one of the worst dead-horse beaters in the chatrooms, he's also a true fan and unwilling to give up hope.
Tragic Illness had given up with the Dodgers two games out of the playoffs. He said he was happy to take an unpopular position. I hope he was just as happy to take a stupid and cowardly position.
If someone is willing to give up on any season when the going suddenly gets tough or you fall a little ways out of the top spot, well, you don't want someone like that on your team.
For being quitters all the stat kids should be shipped off to AssClown Island. Give them a dial-up connection and let them tell epic stories to each other about BABIPS, FIPS and the day they lost their rWAR.
YOU KNOW YOU'RE A STAT KID IF...
YOU WOULDN'T TRADE ZACK LEE FOR ARAMIS RAMIREZ IN A HEARTBEAT.
Attention Eric Stephen!!!
Good Ole VODF contributed a good-sized financial gift to your spring training trip because you're a hard working son-of-a-gun. Stati--ness aside, I respect warriors.
Funny to note, I was banned from your chatroom on my second visit. Usually it takes 6 or 7 visits for VODF to get banned. It was definitely a premature banning even though banning was inevitable.
The Trueblue chatroom is a smarter, older, cliquier and a much more in-love-with-itself version of the Tragic Illness chatroom. Meaner, nastier in nature. Not as unknowing about baseball. But people who are all clearly happy with themselves and their cliquiness.
Too bad Eric. You do good work. It would serve you well to have your chatroom moderated by people with a little more even-handedness. I would still be banned with good reason but you'd have a chatroom more welcoming to regular folk.
A Quick Catch-up
N. Eovaldi continues to develop. A cutter and curve ball now added to the mix. Upward trending EO. He's a keeper.
Mr. Cruz. A fine story and contribution. But Dee will be playing shortstop when he's fully recovered. Period. Dee the future all-star should be something special in the not-to-distant-future.
A.J. Ellis continues his alarming accumulation of K's. He's now struck out 17 times in July. He's got 4 walks during that period. Glad the Dodgers have him. Glad he's not leading off or batting second.
Hairston should be the Dodgers starting 3B with lots of time off.
Rivera playing 1B against right-handed pitching is clearly a Donnie Baseball blindspot.
Please trade Z. Lee for Aramis. The opportunity cost is well worth it.
Admittedly, I was a little bummed by the way things were going. The Dodgers were losing every game there for awhile. The stat kids were saying stupid stuff like trade Capuano and Eovaldi because this season's over. The fair weather fans were picking at and kicking almost every Dodger and member of the organization.
Sickening really. I give WBBsAs some credit, although he's one of the worst dead-horse beaters in the chatrooms, he's also a true fan and unwilling to give up hope.
Tragic Illness had given up with the Dodgers two games out of the playoffs. He said he was happy to take an unpopular position. I hope he was just as happy to take a stupid and cowardly position.
If someone is willing to give up on any season when the going suddenly gets tough or you fall a little ways out of the top spot, well, you don't want someone like that on your team.
For being quitters all the stat kids should be shipped off to AssClown Island. Give them a dial-up connection and let them tell epic stories to each other about BABIPS, FIPS and the day they lost their rWAR.
YOU KNOW YOU'RE A STAT KID IF...
YOU WOULDN'T TRADE ZACK LEE FOR ARAMIS RAMIREZ IN A HEARTBEAT.
Attention Eric Stephen!!!
Good Ole VODF contributed a good-sized financial gift to your spring training trip because you're a hard working son-of-a-gun. Stati--ness aside, I respect warriors.
Funny to note, I was banned from your chatroom on my second visit. Usually it takes 6 or 7 visits for VODF to get banned. It was definitely a premature banning even though banning was inevitable.
The Trueblue chatroom is a smarter, older, cliquier and a much more in-love-with-itself version of the Tragic Illness chatroom. Meaner, nastier in nature. Not as unknowing about baseball. But people who are all clearly happy with themselves and their cliquiness.
Too bad Eric. You do good work. It would serve you well to have your chatroom moderated by people with a little more even-handedness. I would still be banned with good reason but you'd have a chatroom more welcoming to regular folk.
A Quick Catch-up
N. Eovaldi continues to develop. A cutter and curve ball now added to the mix. Upward trending EO. He's a keeper.
Mr. Cruz. A fine story and contribution. But Dee will be playing shortstop when he's fully recovered. Period. Dee the future all-star should be something special in the not-to-distant-future.
A.J. Ellis continues his alarming accumulation of K's. He's now struck out 17 times in July. He's got 4 walks during that period. Glad the Dodgers have him. Glad he's not leading off or batting second.
Hairston should be the Dodgers starting 3B with lots of time off.
Rivera playing 1B against right-handed pitching is clearly a Donnie Baseball blindspot.
Please trade Z. Lee for Aramis. The opportunity cost is well worth it.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
You Know You're An Amateur Stat Boy When ...
1. You refer to your make-believe girlfriend as "My Lady"
2. You need a change of underwear after finding out some 3rd tier celebrity acknowledged one of your 500 tweets of the day.
3. You spend a minimum 8 hours on a baseball blog site pounding in non-sensical posts so at the end of the day your group of 7 Internet friends can chortle how the site got more than 1000 posts that day.
4. When you refer to your "Ex" you're talking about the girl you chased around the playground in 5th Grade.
5. Your knowledge of baseball is only surpassed by your ... well ... I don't know what it could be surpassed by because you obviously know everything there is to know.
6. You constantly beat baseball's dead horses because what you don't know about baseball could refill the Pacific Ocean.
7. You delight in insulting, disparaging, and ridiculing people because you can get away with it down in your basement where, you know, you can't get bitch slapped and really don't have to know a damn thing.
8. Your entire life revolves around a tiny group of like-minded folks who get can get together every day and talk about how stupid everyone else is. And of course take turns hitting the like button for each other because nobody else will.
AND WITH THAT ENDS THE 30-DAY RANT OF VODF. I HOPE YOU (Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness) RECOGNIZED THE NASTY, OVER-THE-TOP BILGE THAT YOU FOLKS PUMP OUT EVERY DAY. AND I HOPE SOME DAY YOU FIND A LIFE THAT DOESN'T REVOLVE AROUND HOW PSEUDO-SNARKY YOU CAN BE AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS. CARRY ON.
ONE last thing. Can't help myself. But it's news. Turns out I agree on one thing with Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. He is HALF the writer Jon Weisman is. (You do have TWICE the HAT SIZE though but i digress.) Don't let your kiddie friends talk you out of your day job. One trick ponies don't fare well in the real world. Once again the REAL sports writers work out of GRANTLAND. If you want comparisons that's where you should be studying. Not to mention Bill S. is the most successful blogger in the history of the world. This advice comes from a former award-winning, reporter, writer, editor and publisher. Good luck.
2. You need a change of underwear after finding out some 3rd tier celebrity acknowledged one of your 500 tweets of the day.
3. You spend a minimum 8 hours on a baseball blog site pounding in non-sensical posts so at the end of the day your group of 7 Internet friends can chortle how the site got more than 1000 posts that day.
4. When you refer to your "Ex" you're talking about the girl you chased around the playground in 5th Grade.
5. Your knowledge of baseball is only surpassed by your ... well ... I don't know what it could be surpassed by because you obviously know everything there is to know.
6. You constantly beat baseball's dead horses because what you don't know about baseball could refill the Pacific Ocean.
7. You delight in insulting, disparaging, and ridiculing people because you can get away with it down in your basement where, you know, you can't get bitch slapped and really don't have to know a damn thing.
8. Your entire life revolves around a tiny group of like-minded folks who get can get together every day and talk about how stupid everyone else is. And of course take turns hitting the like button for each other because nobody else will.
AND WITH THAT ENDS THE 30-DAY RANT OF VODF. I HOPE YOU (Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness) RECOGNIZED THE NASTY, OVER-THE-TOP BILGE THAT YOU FOLKS PUMP OUT EVERY DAY. AND I HOPE SOME DAY YOU FIND A LIFE THAT DOESN'T REVOLVE AROUND HOW PSEUDO-SNARKY YOU CAN BE AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS. CARRY ON.
ONE last thing. Can't help myself. But it's news. Turns out I agree on one thing with Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. He is HALF the writer Jon Weisman is. (You do have TWICE the HAT SIZE though but i digress.) Don't let your kiddie friends talk you out of your day job. One trick ponies don't fare well in the real world. Once again the REAL sports writers work out of GRANTLAND. If you want comparisons that's where you should be studying. Not to mention Bill S. is the most successful blogger in the history of the world. This advice comes from a former award-winning, reporter, writer, editor and publisher. Good luck.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Stat Boys: Nightmare At Trade Deadline
No. 1, I think we can all agree that nobody wants to overpay for players that are just rentals. OK? Really. Nobody is for that. Even the Dead Horse Beaten Corpse of Ned Colletti. NOBODY IS FOR THAT. Not Ned, not Steve Lyons, not the dreaded "Casual Fans." CAN WE AGREE? It's not everyone wants to overpay except the Stat Boys because they're smarter than everyone else.
Ned's never had a sensible baseball boss to question his moves. Now he does. Stan K. does not want to overpay for players that are just pennant race rentals. I hope we've got that cleared up. Nobody.
No. 2, EVERYONE has a different idea of what is overpaying, the value of the playoffs and what exactly helps the Dodgers build for the future. This is a fantastically gray area. It's also complicated. Stat Boys don't ever have to worry about things like ticket sales, people's jobs, salary, risk/reward, any of that.
Some people think trading Gould for Carlos Lee was an example of the rental overpayment problem. Me, not so much. The Dodgers were way out in front way back then and Lee represented an upgrade at 1B. But I could easily live without him, too.
I don't think Gould will ever be part of a Major League rotation. I could be wrong. Lee has been an upgrade so far for Miami but he's not going to be their difference maker. Nobody is right at this stage.
Tragic Illness believes Dee Gordon is an unproven player as well as being injury prone and therefore the Dodgers should pay for Jimmy Rollins. Helps short term and long term. I think this is a clown statement for several reasons but that's how far apart people can be on these things.
No. 3, The trade market is ever changing. What applied six weeks ago may not apply now. And when it comes to trading, supply, demand, leverage and skill at horse trading are the key factors not how the advance metrics add up.
For example I told recent teenager, The Real Paul, that the Red Sox would ask the Dodgers for a lot to get Youk. And that was true. Team always ask for a lot. Anyone who does transactions or negotiates in real life knows about how those things work. Anyone that is that has done more than trade baseball cards and bootleg DVDs.
But Paul, that was near or at the time Youk got hurt. When the majority of people were still thinking he could play. Then Youk gets hurt. Then Youk can't get to the Mendoza line. Then the scouts say Youk sucks. Then he becomes a clubhouse problem. Then his replacement blows up. By his final days in Boston he's only worth the Ely/Sellers comp.
As soon as he gets hurt his value started going down. Then it was follow the bouncing ball to the ground floor. By that time they could have probably got him for Gould. But the entire trade value situation was totally different than before.
If the Dodgers had traded for Youk at that point the Stat Kids would have pouted and thrown tantrums until the sun went down and afterwards. They'd call it Ned being Ned. Even though Ned doesn't make the final decision anymore. Now in hindsight maybe the Dodgers should have traded that comp but nobody was saying it then.
Trade value is a constantly moving target. What you might be able to get one day could be entirely different next week due to supply, demand and leverage. If you're going to go all Bozo The Clown at least try to show that you know something about the big picture.
Ned's never had a sensible baseball boss to question his moves. Now he does. Stan K. does not want to overpay for players that are just pennant race rentals. I hope we've got that cleared up. Nobody.
No. 2, EVERYONE has a different idea of what is overpaying, the value of the playoffs and what exactly helps the Dodgers build for the future. This is a fantastically gray area. It's also complicated. Stat Boys don't ever have to worry about things like ticket sales, people's jobs, salary, risk/reward, any of that.
Some people think trading Gould for Carlos Lee was an example of the rental overpayment problem. Me, not so much. The Dodgers were way out in front way back then and Lee represented an upgrade at 1B. But I could easily live without him, too.
I don't think Gould will ever be part of a Major League rotation. I could be wrong. Lee has been an upgrade so far for Miami but he's not going to be their difference maker. Nobody is right at this stage.
Tragic Illness believes Dee Gordon is an unproven player as well as being injury prone and therefore the Dodgers should pay for Jimmy Rollins. Helps short term and long term. I think this is a clown statement for several reasons but that's how far apart people can be on these things.
No. 3, The trade market is ever changing. What applied six weeks ago may not apply now. And when it comes to trading, supply, demand, leverage and skill at horse trading are the key factors not how the advance metrics add up.
For example I told recent teenager, The Real Paul, that the Red Sox would ask the Dodgers for a lot to get Youk. And that was true. Team always ask for a lot. Anyone who does transactions or negotiates in real life knows about how those things work. Anyone that is that has done more than trade baseball cards and bootleg DVDs.
But Paul, that was near or at the time Youk got hurt. When the majority of people were still thinking he could play. Then Youk gets hurt. Then Youk can't get to the Mendoza line. Then the scouts say Youk sucks. Then he becomes a clubhouse problem. Then his replacement blows up. By his final days in Boston he's only worth the Ely/Sellers comp.
As soon as he gets hurt his value started going down. Then it was follow the bouncing ball to the ground floor. By that time they could have probably got him for Gould. But the entire trade value situation was totally different than before.
If the Dodgers had traded for Youk at that point the Stat Kids would have pouted and thrown tantrums until the sun went down and afterwards. They'd call it Ned being Ned. Even though Ned doesn't make the final decision anymore. Now in hindsight maybe the Dodgers should have traded that comp but nobody was saying it then.
Trade value is a constantly moving target. What you might be able to get one day could be entirely different next week due to supply, demand and leverage. If you're going to go all Bozo The Clown at least try to show that you know something about the big picture.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Stats Boys Call "Casual Fans" Cause Of Dodger Problems
The stupidest and most insulting thing Stat Boys (again only amateur stat boys, not the professionals) do is how they disdainfully refer to the "Casual Fan."
They are so in love with themselves and their little clique of mega minds they feel it's their obligation to set the "Fans" straight.
That pitcher is overrated because the "Casual Fans" overrates wins. I hate "Casual Fans." If it weren't for the "Casual Fans" the team wouldn't make those bad trades at the deadline so they can, like, try to win. If those "Casual Fans" didn't do the wave the games my parents take me to wouldn't be so bad. We hate the "Casual Fans" because they're like, you know, not smart like us.
F U and the pocket protector you rode in on.
Sit over there in your basements happily skyping each other about the brilliant moves you would make if you were the GM. You subtract all the real world factors surrounding a Major League Baseball Franchise and make universe-changing decisions because, you know, you're so brilliant. One blogger said today that if it was him he'd give up on this season and start building for the future. And the first thing he would do would be to trade Chris Capuano because that would be the most intelligent thing to do.
Two games out of first place, that would be the most intelligent thing to do? Eh, has anyone ever given up two games out of first. I wouldn't. Would anyone who actually ever had something to do with the team? Missed the chapter on Giving Up in fantasy baseball.
Tragic Illness: I’ve said a few times that my highest priority is not making the playoffs in 2012, it’s trying to create an organization which can be a consistent contender for years to come. That doesn’t always correspond with what the casual fan wants to see, since they they see a team in position to make a playoff run and think that going for it all right now is the only option, but taking an unpopular position is fine with me.
This may be the silliest thing I've read all month:
They are so in love with themselves and their little clique of mega minds they feel it's their obligation to set the "Fans" straight.
That pitcher is overrated because the "Casual Fans" overrates wins. I hate "Casual Fans." If it weren't for the "Casual Fans" the team wouldn't make those bad trades at the deadline so they can, like, try to win. If those "Casual Fans" didn't do the wave the games my parents take me to wouldn't be so bad. We hate the "Casual Fans" because they're like, you know, not smart like us.
F U and the pocket protector you rode in on.
Sit over there in your basements happily skyping each other about the brilliant moves you would make if you were the GM. You subtract all the real world factors surrounding a Major League Baseball Franchise and make universe-changing decisions because, you know, you're so brilliant. One blogger said today that if it was him he'd give up on this season and start building for the future. And the first thing he would do would be to trade Chris Capuano because that would be the most intelligent thing to do.
Two games out of first place, that would be the most intelligent thing to do? Eh, has anyone ever given up two games out of first. I wouldn't. Would anyone who actually ever had something to do with the team? Missed the chapter on Giving Up in fantasy baseball.
Tragic Illness: I’ve said a few times that my highest priority is not making the playoffs in 2012, it’s trying to create an organization which can be a consistent contender for years to come. That doesn’t always correspond with what the casual fan wants to see, since they they see a team in position to make a playoff run and think that going for it all right now is the only option, but taking an unpopular position is fine with me.
This may be the silliest thing I've read all month:
Mike Petriello
JeffKlein negan Chase Headley is one of the five best third basemen in baseball.
Shawn Tolleson Reboot
When Shawn was called up everybody wanted to see the guy who had dominated the minor leagues for the last two years. I know I did.
But he couldn't find his control the first four times he got a chance. The fifth time it looked as if someone told him to get the ball over or else. He did. He got shelled. And down he went. Well he never actually went down to the minors because of the ever-changing roster issues.
At that time command looked like the culprit. Nerves would make sense but he got opportunities and none looked like what we've been reading about.
But since his reprieve he's pitched three plus innings culminating in last night's dominating performance. That suggests Mr. Tolleson is getting use to the Bigs and that nerves could have been the issue.
EO The Man, The Myth
I think all the Stat Boys are now officially off the Nate Eovaldi bandwagon. The guy gets less strikeouts than Zito! The guy only has two pitches!
Idiots!
Eo has been thrust into the fire because the so-called Dodger minor league pitching strength is a myth or at least overhyped. None of them can pitch in the majors today, tomorrow or probably even next year.
Eovaldi is 22 and learning on the job. His control is lacking and he's using major leagues games to try and develop a third and fourth pitch. And even with that he's able to get major league hitters out. He's had more good games than bad.
The K stat is overrated by the Stat Boys. Well the great pitchers
all have high K rates. Duh. I don't think anyone is calling Nate great at this point. Many good pitchers do just fine without striking out a man per inning. The walk is the really important stat. If you're walking a lot of people you can't win. EO is walking too many people because his command isn't good. Still he's out there trying and he'll definitely get better. And maybe when he does he'll make all the little Stat Boys happy with a few extra strike outs.
Besides what's the alternative. Stat Boys hate rentals. You can't have it both ways.
Which reminds me Stat Boys never like any mid season trades. None that I can remember. They may after the fact when they have to change their tune. Why? Because they're so fvcking brilliant! Didn't you know?
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