What in the heck was that?
An 80 mph knuckleball! Yikes! I guess I've never spent any time watching Mr. R. A. Dickey. The knuckleball is suppose to be a gentle floating butterfly that pisses batters off as it meanders through the hitting area. Dickey's knuckleball is like going from the gentlemanly visage of Honest Abe to ABE LINCOLN VAMPIRE KILLER.
Damn it R.A. Where did you get that thing? And when does your contract with Lucifer run out?
I guess I just hadn't been paying attention. What if it's now possible for a person to learn how to shoot that R.A. Dickey 80 mph knuckler to a spot at the top of the zone and get the umpire to call it a strike? That would change everything. Might have to go all NASCAR and ban the damn thing.
So much more fun to watch a baseball game where you get to see something new in baseball instead of the endless prattle about the Lee/Gould trade. Never has so much keyboard hammering gone on about something of so little import. Or at least since the day before with the endless prattle about a Cuban prospect that nobody has seen play but everyone knows how he projects.
Look. I don't need advanced metrics to know that a 36-year old man, whose listed on his own team's info as 6-foot-2, 270 pounds, can't play baseball. He certainly might be able to swing a bat and possibly, maybe have some possible success at doing it but c'mon people. What's the point. For me I like the trade because for a moment or two it would stop the beating of a dead Loney. That alone is worth it to me.
On the other side you got people crying the blues because you have to give up some soft thrower in A ball who if a miracle happens might see the middle of the rotation for some major league team some day. Or not.
Carlos Lee might provide some entertainment for the non-geek fans so I see no harm in doing it. On the other hand I don't care. I too believe Loney statistically (OMG!) will do as well as Lee the rest of the season if he only plays against right-handed pitching. So whatever.
The Happiest Man at Chavez Ravine. That would be Stan Kasten. The magical early run of the Dodgers almost got him stuck with Ned for at least another year or two. Now short of a replay of the early season win by committee he gets to say stuff like we're starting over and building around our core of great young players. Uribe, Loney, Rivera, Kennedy, etc., gone. Also Ned's medical guy who said that that pitcher from the Giants was medically sound. He'll never say it but Stan is beaming on the inside.
Mr. Van Slyke. Sadly I think everyone is now willing to work together in taking apart the Van Slyke bandwagon, folding it up and putting it away into the storage locker for use at a later date. It didn't help that Mattingly tortured him by putting him in against Dickey. I predicted that Uribe had a better chance of hitting a line drive and, well, that happened.
There are reasons why managers don't like playing minor leaguers ahead of old, grizzly, gritty (I'm kidding about the grizzly, gritty part OK?) veterans. Last night was the perfect example. Just because a kid has stats in the minors doesn't make him a better player than a below average major leaguer. Now my pal Dee Gordon, well, it's unlikely that any other another manager in baseball would have stuck with him this long. I applaud Don Baseball for hanging in there but it's rare you see this kind of thing.
The Sabre Cult.
Terry Pruett
OK Terry let's calm down buddy. A lot of parents tell their kids never to discuss politics or religion with strangers because things can get, well, out of hand. I think it would be wise for parents to now include baseball statistics. The whole thing seems a little cultish if you ask me. I don't think anyone has actually been killed or reprogrammed yet but I definitely think koolaid is involved.
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Friday, June 29, 2012
It Was Well Worth Stopping By Tragic Illness Today
The Tragic Illness website today had an unusually sane and unbiased look at a Dodger happening. The point was that the Yasiel Puig all-day, all-in, world of wonder was all about, well, hard to say. Fortunately there's no statistics on the guy so outlandish statements based on pseudo analysis couldn't be made. Instead the readers got - wait for it - a logical look at the situation.
AND the author said that Logan White - a baseball guy - might actually know more about baseball than he does. Armageddon People.
Good work Tragic Illness.
Another great thing occurred at TR ILL. My good friend TheRealPaul - the Tragic Hero of The Day, posted up this story with this note:
THE REAL Paul: I remember reading this a while back and stumbled across it again today. I feel like in light of some recent conversations and events that have taken place on here and elsewhere, it's worth a read.
I'd like to salute the author Bradley Woodrum. He's a sabre person who is honestly trying to move the knowledge base forward and not forgetting to include the, you know, actual playing of the game and circumstances and issues around the game that play into the possible final outcome. Bradley you are the man. And Bradley's also the man because he tries to make his points without the snark. Sabre kids don't do that very well either. Maybe Bradley's an alien brought to earth to lead the Sabre kids out of the darkness and into the light of reality-based analysis. Thanks again REAL PAUL. Revel in your award.
Who Will Rob The Dodgers First?
Edwin Encarnacion is having a career year. If I was Toronto I'd be thinking, yeah I'm in a pennant race but i probably won't win and, my lord, Edwin will never have as much trade value as right this second. I wonder what I could get the Dodgers to overpay for him. You'd have to ask the desperate Dodgers just in case they might lose their minds. Don't know what will happen but I'm just saying.
There Are Real Reasons Why You're In The Minor Leagues.
You truly understand how bad the Dodger situation is when you see them willing to send Van Slyke out to start a major league game in right field. He's an imposing fellow but his bat didn't get any faster in his recent vacation in New Mexico. He may get lucky at some point and find the ball hitting the sweet spot of his bat but he's got so little chance with that approach. I would say with no hesitation that Uribe has a better chance of hitting a line drive. I hope Van Slyke finds the right adjustment in his next trip to the minors.
Tragedy of the Day. This guy makes more posts per day on the Baseball Interweb than anyone alive or dead. Usually his most intelligent posts go something like this: Bunt, Bunt, Bunt. Otherwise he mostly talks "Beubs." We need a stat for quality per Interweb post. He'd lead the league in BADNESS wARr. Here's one where he apparently ran out of baseball wisdom and he starts analyzing Jeff Fisher the new Ram football coach. Fisher has a 142-120 record coaching for one of the cheapest owners in the league. The owner forced Fisher to play the guy's favorite college quarterback one year instead of like a real quarterback. The college QB was quickly out of the league. Knock yourself out Increbileboy14.
Justincredible14
P.S. VIETNAMDODGER
Hey Viet I wasn't talking about you and Chad B. Reading comprehension. Remember we talked about this. I love you man. And your pet Crab.
AND the author said that Logan White - a baseball guy - might actually know more about baseball than he does. Armageddon People.
Good work Tragic Illness.
Another great thing occurred at TR ILL. My good friend TheRealPaul - the Tragic Hero of The Day, posted up this story with this note:
THE REAL Paul: I remember reading this a while back and stumbled across it again today. I feel like in light of some recent conversations and events that have taken place on here and elsewhere, it's worth a read.
Who Will Rob The Dodgers First?
Edwin Encarnacion is having a career year. If I was Toronto I'd be thinking, yeah I'm in a pennant race but i probably won't win and, my lord, Edwin will never have as much trade value as right this second. I wonder what I could get the Dodgers to overpay for him. You'd have to ask the desperate Dodgers just in case they might lose their minds. Don't know what will happen but I'm just saying.
There Are Real Reasons Why You're In The Minor Leagues.
You truly understand how bad the Dodger situation is when you see them willing to send Van Slyke out to start a major league game in right field. He's an imposing fellow but his bat didn't get any faster in his recent vacation in New Mexico. He may get lucky at some point and find the ball hitting the sweet spot of his bat but he's got so little chance with that approach. I would say with no hesitation that Uribe has a better chance of hitting a line drive. I hope Van Slyke finds the right adjustment in his next trip to the minors.
Tragedy of the Day. This guy makes more posts per day on the Baseball Interweb than anyone alive or dead. Usually his most intelligent posts go something like this: Bunt, Bunt, Bunt. Otherwise he mostly talks "Beubs." We need a stat for quality per Interweb post. He'd lead the league in BADNESS wARr. Here's one where he apparently ran out of baseball wisdom and he starts analyzing Jeff Fisher the new Ram football coach. Fisher has a 142-120 record coaching for one of the cheapest owners in the league. The owner forced Fisher to play the guy's favorite college quarterback one year instead of like a real quarterback. The college QB was quickly out of the league. Knock yourself out Increbileboy14.
Justincredible14
West Coast Ram West True, but why hire a coach whose teams never post better than middle of the pack offensive and defensive numbers? Especially with so much talent developing? Plus, he looks like a girls AYSO soccer coach.
P.S. VIETNAMDODGER
Hey Viet I wasn't talking about you and Chad B. Reading comprehension. Remember we talked about this. I love you man. And your pet Crab.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
The Chad Bills Vs. T. Lincecum Debate Such As It Is
First of all I'd like to once again thank the Tragic Illness chat room for its help. I just could not do this blog without the daily gold mined in that baseball Romper Room. People like Phattonez7, Justinincredibly14 and Bill Grabarkewitz, I thank you from the bottom of my curmudgeon heart. Seriously, you come with some awesome, eh, stuff, and you never disappoint.
We here at Veryolddodgerfan salute you and those like you.
A couple weeks back while I was still allowed in the Tragic Illness chat room I read what I thought was an absurd post about how Chad Billingsly was now a much better pitcher than Tim Lincecum. And not only that but the STATS showed Chad has favorably compared to Timmy for years now. If given the choice of getting Chad or Tim, some Tragic Illness people would obviously choose Chad.
AND Tim Lincecum was pretty much done as a pitcher as he was going to REGRESSION himself or something like that right out of major league baseball. His velocity is dropping like a stone and more, eh, stuff, like that.
I had read something about his problems this year and saw that his ERA was astronomical although his standard more-than-1K-an-inning was still intact. So I looked forward to seeing this all but broken down former great pitcher on his final legs throw his weak-assed stuff up against the Dodgers.
So what's my scouting report on Lincecum? Bottom line: He doesn't need to rush out and look for work anytime soon. Crisis averted.
His fast ball ranges between 90-92. He's got a four-seamer. A sharp breaking curve ball. A slider. And a still very competent change. He has pitches in the 70, 80 and 90 MPH categories. He's obviously not dominant anymore but missing bats for starters is not a must. Most pitching coaches tell you they rather have starters hit bats so they conserve pitches. If you have the batters off balance it doesn't matter how hard you throw, they're not hitting it on the sweet spot which is by far the most important thing.
Chad was Chad. A talented underachiever. I like Chad. He's an excellent No. 4 starter to have under team control. Occasionally he won't pitch well and occasionally he will pitch great. But everything in between should give the Dodgers a chance to win. Just don't forget he's a No. 4 starter and gauge your expectations accordingly.
Lincecum on the other hand is in transition. His fast ball is not going to be his out pitch anymore. And he was obviously not in command of all his still above average pitches. The guy is smart and as long as he's not too stubborn he'll be a very competent pitcher that you can depend on for several more years.
Against the Dodgers Lincecum strike out 8, gave up 4 hits, walked one and the closest the Dodgers came to a run was Chad Bills getting thrown out at the plate on a wild pitch. Meanwhile Chad was walking in a run and moonwalking his mediocre tightrope as he often does. The Tragic folks pooh pooh Tim's results because it's against the Dodgers. But what the Dodgers do best is WALK and they couldn't get it done against the hasbeen Lincecum.
I like Chad. But the thinking behind saying you rather have Chad than Tim could set the human race back hundreds of years.
My Favorite Tragedy Of The Day from Bill Grabarkewitz. Sometimes you hope the Sabre Kids will take their eyes off the computer screen for a second and actually watch ball games and maybe learn something about baseball. Didn't work this time.
Bill Grabarkewitz
Now from the mostly adult chat room at Dodgerthoughts:
We here at Veryolddodgerfan salute you and those like you.
A couple weeks back while I was still allowed in the Tragic Illness chat room I read what I thought was an absurd post about how Chad Billingsly was now a much better pitcher than Tim Lincecum. And not only that but the STATS showed Chad has favorably compared to Timmy for years now. If given the choice of getting Chad or Tim, some Tragic Illness people would obviously choose Chad.
AND Tim Lincecum was pretty much done as a pitcher as he was going to REGRESSION himself or something like that right out of major league baseball. His velocity is dropping like a stone and more, eh, stuff, like that.
I had read something about his problems this year and saw that his ERA was astronomical although his standard more-than-1K-an-inning was still intact. So I looked forward to seeing this all but broken down former great pitcher on his final legs throw his weak-assed stuff up against the Dodgers.
So what's my scouting report on Lincecum? Bottom line: He doesn't need to rush out and look for work anytime soon. Crisis averted.
His fast ball ranges between 90-92. He's got a four-seamer. A sharp breaking curve ball. A slider. And a still very competent change. He has pitches in the 70, 80 and 90 MPH categories. He's obviously not dominant anymore but missing bats for starters is not a must. Most pitching coaches tell you they rather have starters hit bats so they conserve pitches. If you have the batters off balance it doesn't matter how hard you throw, they're not hitting it on the sweet spot which is by far the most important thing.
Chad was Chad. A talented underachiever. I like Chad. He's an excellent No. 4 starter to have under team control. Occasionally he won't pitch well and occasionally he will pitch great. But everything in between should give the Dodgers a chance to win. Just don't forget he's a No. 4 starter and gauge your expectations accordingly.
Lincecum on the other hand is in transition. His fast ball is not going to be his out pitch anymore. And he was obviously not in command of all his still above average pitches. The guy is smart and as long as he's not too stubborn he'll be a very competent pitcher that you can depend on for several more years.
Against the Dodgers Lincecum strike out 8, gave up 4 hits, walked one and the closest the Dodgers came to a run was Chad Bills getting thrown out at the plate on a wild pitch. Meanwhile Chad was walking in a run and moonwalking his mediocre tightrope as he often does. The Tragic folks pooh pooh Tim's results because it's against the Dodgers. But what the Dodgers do best is WALK and they couldn't get it done against the hasbeen Lincecum.
I like Chad. But the thinking behind saying you rather have Chad than Tim could set the human race back hundreds of years.
My Favorite Tragedy Of The Day from Bill Grabarkewitz. Sometimes you hope the Sabre Kids will take their eyes off the computer screen for a second and actually watch ball games and maybe learn something about baseball. Didn't work this time.
Bill Grabarkewitz
Things I noticed today:
Bills looked really good out there. Confident and relatively sharp. I was surprised, but gratified.
Timmy did not look good. A decent team would have been all over him.
The Dodgers looked so bad that I didn't get any of the usual "Dodgers suck" crap.
Giant fans still arrive late, drink early, and drink like fish.
Now from the mostly adult chat room at Dodgerthoughts:
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Regression Is The Ugliest Word In Baseball Since Steroids
What I hate about the pseudo Sabre folks more than anything is how they suck the life out of a game played by humans to entertain other humans.
First you couldn't read a mention on the Internet about Elian Herrera without the obligatory 9-year career minor leaguer who will surely regress. Now it's the I Told You So He Really Sucks because he's never showed any history of, you know, being good, blah, blah, blah, like we said.
Baseball is played by humans not computer simulations. Hundreds of things can effect players, situations, the environment. Baseball is and always will be a game of streaks, slumps, hot, cold and most of all adjustments. How players adjust or don't adjust or can't adjust determine their futures. Not imperfect stats.
When Herrera came up I was amazed at his plate discipline. He didn't work the count to 3-2 much of the time he got to 3-2 almost every time. Pitchers quickly realized that they couldn't trick him at 3-2 because he wasn't swinging unless it was definitely in the strike zone. So they had to throw something that was definitely going to get a strike or he was walking. This temporarily gave Herrera a great hitting advantage when that occurred.
I admired him even more when he took ball four in this situation a few times and the umpire made a bad call and he was inappropriately struck out. This didn't change Herrera's approach and he still religiously worked the count the next time.
So after a month the pitchers figured out how he was beating them and they adjusted. Instead of trying to nibble and/or trick him they have started challenging him with their better stuff at the top of the strike zone. Herrera tried to adjust by trying to ambush the pitcher's first or second pitchthinking they would be trying to sneak in an easy strike. Hasn't worked so far. Right now, like A.J. Ellis, Herrera is not a great major league hitter, he's a great major league walker.
Herrera will have to make a better adjustment. He's only been batting against major league pitching for two months now so there's no reason to think he can't make a better adjustment. Especially considering the approach he started with. He's a switch hitter who can play several position well. I think he's the real deal - a major leaguer.
But most of all I think he's what makes baseball the national pastime. A great story and somebody you should want to root for. Not a science project.
Andy LaRoche. The Cleveland Indians cut LaRoche yesterday. A guy once considered to be the Dodger future third baseman. The sabre people liked him because of OBP and occasional power. But he just couldn't hit major league pitching no matter what the stats said. It's a personal tragedy for the player and I feel for a guy like that. I've made the argument my entire life that sports are about humans not statistics.
First you couldn't read a mention on the Internet about Elian Herrera without the obligatory 9-year career minor leaguer who will surely regress. Now it's the I Told You So He Really Sucks because he's never showed any history of, you know, being good, blah, blah, blah, like we said.
Baseball is played by humans not computer simulations. Hundreds of things can effect players, situations, the environment. Baseball is and always will be a game of streaks, slumps, hot, cold and most of all adjustments. How players adjust or don't adjust or can't adjust determine their futures. Not imperfect stats.
When Herrera came up I was amazed at his plate discipline. He didn't work the count to 3-2 much of the time he got to 3-2 almost every time. Pitchers quickly realized that they couldn't trick him at 3-2 because he wasn't swinging unless it was definitely in the strike zone. So they had to throw something that was definitely going to get a strike or he was walking. This temporarily gave Herrera a great hitting advantage when that occurred.
I admired him even more when he took ball four in this situation a few times and the umpire made a bad call and he was inappropriately struck out. This didn't change Herrera's approach and he still religiously worked the count the next time.
So after a month the pitchers figured out how he was beating them and they adjusted. Instead of trying to nibble and/or trick him they have started challenging him with their better stuff at the top of the strike zone. Herrera tried to adjust by trying to ambush the pitcher's first or second pitchthinking they would be trying to sneak in an easy strike. Hasn't worked so far. Right now, like A.J. Ellis, Herrera is not a great major league hitter, he's a great major league walker.
Herrera will have to make a better adjustment. He's only been batting against major league pitching for two months now so there's no reason to think he can't make a better adjustment. Especially considering the approach he started with. He's a switch hitter who can play several position well. I think he's the real deal - a major leaguer.
But most of all I think he's what makes baseball the national pastime. A great story and somebody you should want to root for. Not a science project.
Andy LaRoche. The Cleveland Indians cut LaRoche yesterday. A guy once considered to be the Dodger future third baseman. The sabre people liked him because of OBP and occasional power. But he just couldn't hit major league pitching no matter what the stats said. It's a personal tragedy for the player and I feel for a guy like that. I've made the argument my entire life that sports are about humans not statistics.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
The Inexact Science Of Putting Value On Prospects
Almost everyone outside the baseball industry overrates prospects. Nobody more than the sabre kids when looking at their own team's chances. They speculate wildly on this draft choice or that choice without ever seeing them play, understanding who they are, or any other factor that comes with, you know, actually playing the game.
They like to act like Baseball Scout Studs and use words like projectable when really they have absolutely no idea what a young player is likely to do. They slap their own personal, biased algorithm on the player and they're off and speculating.
The percentage of drafted players who make the majors is so tiny that even Las Vegas wouldn't let you bet on it. The odds are slightly better than the lotto.
Obviously there are players that don't fit into this category like the Harpers, the Trouts, the Kershaws. But everyone else it's worse than an absolute crap shoot.
Still, i'm very interested in the math or lack there of the teams use when they make the prospect trades. I can never really figure when someone is overpaying or not because I don't really KNOW the prospects. But the bottom line is in the history of trading prospects few of them hit big. You know about the ones that hit big or fail big because they are forever on that GM's resume. And of course people like to beat dead horses because it's easier than thinking.
Along those lines I'd like to present a prospect-oriented Dodger trade for your perusal. Just something to talk amongst yourselves about.
Lindblom or Tolleson, Webster, Gould and Wall or Van Slyke for Josh Willingham and his 3-year contract at approximately $7 M a year. Tolleson is rated No. 8, Webster No. 2, Gould No. 10, Wall No. 16, Van Slyke No. 17 on the Dodger's milb prospect list. So four players for one. Minnesota gets two choices between players.
Now the Sabre kids are going to automatically say "He's going all Carlos Santana on us. The world is ending." Maybe. But none of these guys have all-star written in their scouting report. In the meantime Josh W. has about the same stats as Ethier but is about $10 Mil a year cheaper. And under control. Chances are his contract won't look so good in three years but his contract is disposable.
Terry Pruett had this interesting observation at DodgerThoughts:
And that's it. The Twins might not ask for that much. The Sabre kids would say it's too much. I say make the deal because it fills in a currently decrepit offensive lineup, makes a financial transaction that's legit and you're not giving up anyone that's going to be an all-star any time soon or at all. I wonder what the Twins think. If I'm the Twins it would come down to is Webster a legit No. 2 prospect or not. I dunno. It's a risky business.
Three excellent reads at Grantland on Youk, Billy Beane and the MLB Power ratings. PS Somebody finally salutes C Cap without using the word regression. Yea!
NEW FEATURE
I'm calling this one TRAGIC HERO. Tragic after Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness and the chat room there for sabre kids. Hero because every once in awhile you can read something intelligent or truthful/accurate there. Can't make this a daily feature because, well, never mind. Congrats EePhus but who didn't know that.
EephusBlue
They like to act like Baseball Scout Studs and use words like projectable when really they have absolutely no idea what a young player is likely to do. They slap their own personal, biased algorithm on the player and they're off and speculating.
The percentage of drafted players who make the majors is so tiny that even Las Vegas wouldn't let you bet on it. The odds are slightly better than the lotto.
Obviously there are players that don't fit into this category like the Harpers, the Trouts, the Kershaws. But everyone else it's worse than an absolute crap shoot.
Still, i'm very interested in the math or lack there of the teams use when they make the prospect trades. I can never really figure when someone is overpaying or not because I don't really KNOW the prospects. But the bottom line is in the history of trading prospects few of them hit big. You know about the ones that hit big or fail big because they are forever on that GM's resume. And of course people like to beat dead horses because it's easier than thinking.
Along those lines I'd like to present a prospect-oriented Dodger trade for your perusal. Just something to talk amongst yourselves about.
Lindblom or Tolleson, Webster, Gould and Wall or Van Slyke for Josh Willingham and his 3-year contract at approximately $7 M a year. Tolleson is rated No. 8, Webster No. 2, Gould No. 10, Wall No. 16, Van Slyke No. 17 on the Dodger's milb prospect list. So four players for one. Minnesota gets two choices between players.
Now the Sabre kids are going to automatically say "He's going all Carlos Santana on us. The world is ending." Maybe. But none of these guys have all-star written in their scouting report. In the meantime Josh W. has about the same stats as Ethier but is about $10 Mil a year cheaper. And under control. Chances are his contract won't look so good in three years but his contract is disposable.
Terry Pruett had this interesting observation at DodgerThoughts:
And that's it. The Twins might not ask for that much. The Sabre kids would say it's too much. I say make the deal because it fills in a currently decrepit offensive lineup, makes a financial transaction that's legit and you're not giving up anyone that's going to be an all-star any time soon or at all. I wonder what the Twins think. If I'm the Twins it would come down to is Webster a legit No. 2 prospect or not. I dunno. It's a risky business.
Three excellent reads at Grantland on Youk, Billy Beane and the MLB Power ratings. PS Somebody finally salutes C Cap without using the word regression. Yea!
NEW FEATURE
I'm calling this one TRAGIC HERO. Tragic after Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness and the chat room there for sabre kids. Hero because every once in awhile you can read something intelligent or truthful/accurate there. Can't make this a daily feature because, well, never mind. Congrats EePhus but who didn't know that.
EephusBlue
DavePomerantz I'll be honest, I know next to nothing when it comes to evaluating swings or pitching. I just know Uribe looks horrible.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Tolleson Didn't Bring The Drama I Had Hoped
As I watched the minor league stats pile up this year I kept a close watch on S. Tolleson. I did the previous season also. His back story and complete and utter domination of minor leaguers made me think he might be another Kenley Jansen.
For awhile it looked as if the Dodgers were trying everything in their power not to bring him to the Majors this year with their signing of more old guys, etc. But the easy to project breakdowns and DFAs occurred and, well, S. Tolleson got his chance.
I thought when this guys starts blowing away major leaguers who are the Dodgers going to get rid of to make room for him. You know, more drama.
Crisis averted. Tolleson isn't ready.
Sabre kids will look at the minor league stats and say well this is a small sample size and he didn't walk people in the minors. I prefer to judge by what I see.
He had no control over his pitches. He got rattled. His stuff is really good but it's not Jansen/Belisario good. He can't just throw his pet pitches down the middle and say try to hit it like those two can. No doubt he can be a fantastic relief pitcher, just not yet.
The other thing that bothered me about Tolleson was his motion. It's very violent. He's had significant arm troubles before so it could easily happen again.
Just a good reminder about the minor leagues, statistics and prospects.
In a related matter people are jumping off the Josh Lindblom bandwagon. He's got the stuff that can dominate if he gets it near the plate. But at no time did I think he was the 8th inning guy for this year. He just doesn't have the command. Plus if the Dodgers can keep Belisario upright, out of jail, and in this country, he's the perfect 8th inning guy.
New Feature
I'm starting a new feature called Tragedy Of The Day after Mike Scoscias Tragic Illness blog. I find the dumbest sabre rattling comments there when people who seem to know little about baseball try to impress with their knowledge of reading statistics which are imperfect at best and a total friggin lie at worst. It's where all baseball logic goes to die.
Oddly enough the first award goes to someone in the mostly reasonable Dodger Thoughts chatroom. Take a look at this exchange. Thank you TiensyGohan. Congratulations on being the first winner.
For awhile it looked as if the Dodgers were trying everything in their power not to bring him to the Majors this year with their signing of more old guys, etc. But the easy to project breakdowns and DFAs occurred and, well, S. Tolleson got his chance.
I thought when this guys starts blowing away major leaguers who are the Dodgers going to get rid of to make room for him. You know, more drama.
Crisis averted. Tolleson isn't ready.
Sabre kids will look at the minor league stats and say well this is a small sample size and he didn't walk people in the minors. I prefer to judge by what I see.
He had no control over his pitches. He got rattled. His stuff is really good but it's not Jansen/Belisario good. He can't just throw his pet pitches down the middle and say try to hit it like those two can. No doubt he can be a fantastic relief pitcher, just not yet.
The other thing that bothered me about Tolleson was his motion. It's very violent. He's had significant arm troubles before so it could easily happen again.
Just a good reminder about the minor leagues, statistics and prospects.
In a related matter people are jumping off the Josh Lindblom bandwagon. He's got the stuff that can dominate if he gets it near the plate. But at no time did I think he was the 8th inning guy for this year. He just doesn't have the command. Plus if the Dodgers can keep Belisario upright, out of jail, and in this country, he's the perfect 8th inning guy.
New Feature
I'm starting a new feature called Tragedy Of The Day after Mike Scoscias Tragic Illness blog. I find the dumbest sabre rattling comments there when people who seem to know little about baseball try to impress with their knowledge of reading statistics which are imperfect at best and a total friggin lie at worst. It's where all baseball logic goes to die.
Oddly enough the first award goes to someone in the mostly reasonable Dodger Thoughts chatroom. Take a look at this exchange. Thank you TiensyGohan. Congratulations on being the first winner.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
What To Do About Mr. Dee Gordon?
I was fixin to write a post defending Donny Baseball's controversial decision to keep the mistake-prone shortstop in the lineup despite his offensive and defensive mishaps.
Silly me, the stories covering the topic have already been written.
Eric Stephen at True Blue LA and Bill Plaschke at the LA Times both tell the tale from Don Baseball's perspective and I'm OK with his thinking.
I know the sabre kids pull out the numbers saying statistically Dee's the worst offensive player in baseball. Well that's statistics for you. In Saturday's game against the Angels Dee won the game for the Dodgers with his offensive prowess. He did in that game what only 10 or 20 other MLB players could even think of doing. So how does that make him the worst offensive player in the league. Nonsense.
Is he playing well right now? No. Has he even played an entire year in the majors yet? No. Is Dee the albatross around the Dodgers's neck that's, you know, kept them out of first place or from having the best record in baseball? No. Is Dee Gordon the biggest problem the Dodgers have as a team? Hell No.
I'm predicting he will be an All-Star. He'll get there sooner playing in the majors rather than for the Isotopes. With the Dodgers ramming into the wall of late my resolve would weaken and I'd have to probably move him to the 8th spot for just awhile. But Donny Baseball is going all in with the young man and I applaud that move. It might be a rocky trip but I believe it will eventually work out great for the Dodgers.
And an awesome thing happened in today's game. Dee bunted for a base hit. Not such a big deal except he did it by using great bunting technique. Up to now he's looked a little helpless. I read where M Wills has been spending hours with him working on bunting. If Dee became a great bunter all heck is going to break loose. Can't wait to see it.
How Far The Great Youk Has Fallen
When somebody first started asking me what it would take for the Dodgers to get their hands on Youk I said it would take way way more than you'd want to give up. As the scouting reports started panning Youk and he started lighting fires in the Red Sox club house the market bottomed out fast. Then he couldn't get above the Mendoza line.
So the White Sox got him for the Dodger equivalent of Ely/Sellers. I would have paid that with the guarantee in writing that Uribe would get cut upon completion of the trade. The marketplace is a fickle place. All the Internet GM's think it's easy and obvious. But if Youk focuses his anger and blows up for the White Sox the fans are going to storm Boston's management. But at this second in time he had to go. The Red Sox had no choice. Nobody was going to give anymore. What do you do? It's a hard business.
News Feeds Added
I think True Blue LA is the most informative blog pound for pound on the Dodgers anywhere in the Interweb. I believe Grantland contains the finest sports writing in the United States.. And Dodger Thoughts has it's own niche in Dodgerdom and I enjoy checking it out. So you can find headlines for each site on the right hand side of the page. These sites are well worth the effort and I recommend them all.
Silly me, the stories covering the topic have already been written.
Eric Stephen at True Blue LA and Bill Plaschke at the LA Times both tell the tale from Don Baseball's perspective and I'm OK with his thinking.
I know the sabre kids pull out the numbers saying statistically Dee's the worst offensive player in baseball. Well that's statistics for you. In Saturday's game against the Angels Dee won the game for the Dodgers with his offensive prowess. He did in that game what only 10 or 20 other MLB players could even think of doing. So how does that make him the worst offensive player in the league. Nonsense.
Is he playing well right now? No. Has he even played an entire year in the majors yet? No. Is Dee the albatross around the Dodgers's neck that's, you know, kept them out of first place or from having the best record in baseball? No. Is Dee Gordon the biggest problem the Dodgers have as a team? Hell No.
I'm predicting he will be an All-Star. He'll get there sooner playing in the majors rather than for the Isotopes. With the Dodgers ramming into the wall of late my resolve would weaken and I'd have to probably move him to the 8th spot for just awhile. But Donny Baseball is going all in with the young man and I applaud that move. It might be a rocky trip but I believe it will eventually work out great for the Dodgers.
And an awesome thing happened in today's game. Dee bunted for a base hit. Not such a big deal except he did it by using great bunting technique. Up to now he's looked a little helpless. I read where M Wills has been spending hours with him working on bunting. If Dee became a great bunter all heck is going to break loose. Can't wait to see it.
How Far The Great Youk Has Fallen
When somebody first started asking me what it would take for the Dodgers to get their hands on Youk I said it would take way way more than you'd want to give up. As the scouting reports started panning Youk and he started lighting fires in the Red Sox club house the market bottomed out fast. Then he couldn't get above the Mendoza line.
So the White Sox got him for the Dodger equivalent of Ely/Sellers. I would have paid that with the guarantee in writing that Uribe would get cut upon completion of the trade. The marketplace is a fickle place. All the Internet GM's think it's easy and obvious. But if Youk focuses his anger and blows up for the White Sox the fans are going to storm Boston's management. But at this second in time he had to go. The Red Sox had no choice. Nobody was going to give anymore. What do you do? It's a hard business.
News Feeds Added
I think True Blue LA is the most informative blog pound for pound on the Dodgers anywhere in the Interweb. I believe Grantland contains the finest sports writing in the United States.. And Dodger Thoughts has it's own niche in Dodgerdom and I enjoy checking it out. So you can find headlines for each site on the right hand side of the page. These sites are well worth the effort and I recommend them all.
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
I believe that baseball statistics are a valuable tool. If you make any kind of important baseball decision or develop any key strategy without looking at the history, trends and projections, well, you're using bad judgement.
But there is a reason that the accounting department doesn't have the final say at your corporation. Real life is dynamic. The CEO has to consider the people involved and their skills, a rapidly changing marketplace, risk-reward factors, one-off opportunities, various scenarios, dated statistics, investor ramifications, global warming and a thousand other things that can interact with numbers to make each business situation unique - both short term and long term. In business you don't get to use the excuse of small sample size.
Any long-time professional in any field is going to laugh at you when you come to him or her and tell them how to do their job by some formula you learned at the University. Not because you don't know anything. More like because you have no idea what you don't know.
I admire people like Bill James who change the world and push knowledge forward. But he'll be the first person to tell you that stats are nowhere close to perfect and that the science is still evolving.
So how do all these sabre kids, teenagers and college students running around the Internet feel like they can look you straight in the computer screen and tell you, you know nothing and they know everything.
Well, let's see, there's "youth is wasted on the young?" Parental mismanagement? Alien pods?
What these Internet sabre people ARE good at is Beating Dead Horses. OMG! They CAN beat themselves SOME dead horses.
Over at Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness the author is once rolling out his Billingsley is every bit as good as Chris Capuano nonsense. Why? Because the advanced metrics he subscribes to say so. And he's in a snit because those dumb baseball fans give too much credit to Capuano and his 9-2 record. Why? Because wins and ERA don't matter. And poor Chad is every bit as good and those advanced metrics prove it. Darn them.
It shows once again the utter nonsense of some baseball stat analysis. Billingsley is a talented underachiever. I like him a lot as a No. 4 starter. Capuano has little stuff but he knows how to pitch. An overachiever. Don't forget he's been an All-Star and he's come back from two major arm surgeries. You don't lose your smarts and competitiveness. And you can't teach it to someone who doesn't have it.
Tragic Illness finally did admit that if he had one game to win he'd probably choose Capuano over Billingsley grudgingly. Oh Really. Well so would every baseball person on Earth. Join the party. Those ridiculous stats used in the CHAD argument would mean almost nothing in making that choice. Capuano is not a great pitcher and will never be one. But he gives you a much better chance of winning. He starts ahead of Billingsly in the playoffs why? Because he's the obvious baseball choice. Not the statistical choice.
In yesterday's game Capuano was out of gas in the fifth inning but kept pitching shutout baseball. The stat kids will say that was lucky and we can prove it with our pitching luck stat. He may have been lucky but what he really was, was a tough competitor. Chad would have probably been all in, all done in the 5th inning.
Heart and brains can't be simulated in a stat. Some guy in the Tragic Illness chat room said, "The least valuable measure of a baseball player is heart,'' trying to make fun of people using the term to describe a player. I would say if you don't know what heart is and means, then yeah, it's useless, TO YOU.
But there is a reason that the accounting department doesn't have the final say at your corporation. Real life is dynamic. The CEO has to consider the people involved and their skills, a rapidly changing marketplace, risk-reward factors, one-off opportunities, various scenarios, dated statistics, investor ramifications, global warming and a thousand other things that can interact with numbers to make each business situation unique - both short term and long term. In business you don't get to use the excuse of small sample size.
Any long-time professional in any field is going to laugh at you when you come to him or her and tell them how to do their job by some formula you learned at the University. Not because you don't know anything. More like because you have no idea what you don't know.
I admire people like Bill James who change the world and push knowledge forward. But he'll be the first person to tell you that stats are nowhere close to perfect and that the science is still evolving.
So how do all these sabre kids, teenagers and college students running around the Internet feel like they can look you straight in the computer screen and tell you, you know nothing and they know everything.
Well, let's see, there's "youth is wasted on the young?" Parental mismanagement? Alien pods?
What these Internet sabre people ARE good at is Beating Dead Horses. OMG! They CAN beat themselves SOME dead horses.
Over at Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness the author is once rolling out his Billingsley is every bit as good as Chris Capuano nonsense. Why? Because the advanced metrics he subscribes to say so. And he's in a snit because those dumb baseball fans give too much credit to Capuano and his 9-2 record. Why? Because wins and ERA don't matter. And poor Chad is every bit as good and those advanced metrics prove it. Darn them.
It shows once again the utter nonsense of some baseball stat analysis. Billingsley is a talented underachiever. I like him a lot as a No. 4 starter. Capuano has little stuff but he knows how to pitch. An overachiever. Don't forget he's been an All-Star and he's come back from two major arm surgeries. You don't lose your smarts and competitiveness. And you can't teach it to someone who doesn't have it.
Tragic Illness finally did admit that if he had one game to win he'd probably choose Capuano over Billingsley grudgingly. Oh Really. Well so would every baseball person on Earth. Join the party. Those ridiculous stats used in the CHAD argument would mean almost nothing in making that choice. Capuano is not a great pitcher and will never be one. But he gives you a much better chance of winning. He starts ahead of Billingsly in the playoffs why? Because he's the obvious baseball choice. Not the statistical choice.
In yesterday's game Capuano was out of gas in the fifth inning but kept pitching shutout baseball. The stat kids will say that was lucky and we can prove it with our pitching luck stat. He may have been lucky but what he really was, was a tough competitor. Chad would have probably been all in, all done in the 5th inning.
Heart and brains can't be simulated in a stat. Some guy in the Tragic Illness chat room said, "The least valuable measure of a baseball player is heart,'' trying to make fun of people using the term to describe a player. I would say if you don't know what heart is and means, then yeah, it's useless, TO YOU.
Saturday, June 23, 2012
The Beginning
And so it begins.
When you're retired you sit around and read the Internet. When you've followed the L.A. Dodgers for 50 years or so you end up stopping at Dodger blogs on the Internet. When you stop at Dodger blogs on the Internet you find that these are places kids go to show how smart they are using baseball statistics. And then you laugh out loud at how little they know about baseball.
After awhile you stop laughing because it's so irritating.
Then you reach for your blood pressure medicine.
And if you don't get to the bottle in time you stroke out.
Well, you don't want to stroke out so don't go to Internet blogs.
Fortunately there are good Dodger blogs with a lot of valuable information. And with the continuing demise of newspapers and other traditional media they're actually improving the news flow for even the most obscure baseball activities.
I find the True Blue LA blog to be of the most use by far. It gives solid game info along with updates on weekly and monthly player results and strong coverage of the Dodger minor league players. If I could only go to just one Dodger blog this would be the one. I have a lot of respect for Eric Stephen - the beat reporter for the site - who puts everything on the line to cover his passion.
The other thing about True Blue LA is that it's not overly biased like, like say, Mike Scosicias Tragic Illness. I don't know if that's by design or what's required to get press credentials from the team. Either way I'm glad it is the case.
I like to read Jon Weisman's Dodger Thoughts. He's a professional writer so he has a more, well, THOUGHT-ful approach. And his chat room is far more civilized and knowing than some. Not a lot of info compared to others but he doesn't profess to be that kind of blog.
That's about as far as I go Dodger blogwise on a daily basis. I don't find the ESPN Dodger blog very useful. And their LA coverage is generally late and ordinary. But one funny thing. I find that the uber-stat kids despite all their self-legislated genius what they're really in it for is to get tweeted by somebody.
I check the LA Times of course but just mostly out of respect for the good old days of newspapers. Back in the day I was an editor at a large daily, and, well, it's just sad. Don't get me wrong. Newspaper management got just what they deserved for their smug and egotistical view of themselves and the digital future. But I hate thinking about all the people that have been forced to go down with the ship.
I'm a contrarian by nature. I don't mind people who don't know what they're talking about. But I do mind people who aggressively don't know what they're talking about.
That would encompass lots of people who get on the Internet and pass judgement on politics, religion and, yes, the state of the Dodgers. So I'm going spend the rest of this baseball season taking people to task about what crap they might be spewing that day about baseball and I hope to do it not using a single statistic.
p.s. I was a writer/editor many years ago but I no longer care that much about grammar, punctuation, style rules, etc., so you will have to get use to that.
When you're retired you sit around and read the Internet. When you've followed the L.A. Dodgers for 50 years or so you end up stopping at Dodger blogs on the Internet. When you stop at Dodger blogs on the Internet you find that these are places kids go to show how smart they are using baseball statistics. And then you laugh out loud at how little they know about baseball.
After awhile you stop laughing because it's so irritating.
Then you reach for your blood pressure medicine.
And if you don't get to the bottle in time you stroke out.
Well, you don't want to stroke out so don't go to Internet blogs.
Fortunately there are good Dodger blogs with a lot of valuable information. And with the continuing demise of newspapers and other traditional media they're actually improving the news flow for even the most obscure baseball activities.
I find the True Blue LA blog to be of the most use by far. It gives solid game info along with updates on weekly and monthly player results and strong coverage of the Dodger minor league players. If I could only go to just one Dodger blog this would be the one. I have a lot of respect for Eric Stephen - the beat reporter for the site - who puts everything on the line to cover his passion.
The other thing about True Blue LA is that it's not overly biased like, like say, Mike Scosicias Tragic Illness. I don't know if that's by design or what's required to get press credentials from the team. Either way I'm glad it is the case.
I like to read Jon Weisman's Dodger Thoughts. He's a professional writer so he has a more, well, THOUGHT-ful approach. And his chat room is far more civilized and knowing than some. Not a lot of info compared to others but he doesn't profess to be that kind of blog.
That's about as far as I go Dodger blogwise on a daily basis. I don't find the ESPN Dodger blog very useful. And their LA coverage is generally late and ordinary. But one funny thing. I find that the uber-stat kids despite all their self-legislated genius what they're really in it for is to get tweeted by somebody.
I check the LA Times of course but just mostly out of respect for the good old days of newspapers. Back in the day I was an editor at a large daily, and, well, it's just sad. Don't get me wrong. Newspaper management got just what they deserved for their smug and egotistical view of themselves and the digital future. But I hate thinking about all the people that have been forced to go down with the ship.
I'm a contrarian by nature. I don't mind people who don't know what they're talking about. But I do mind people who aggressively don't know what they're talking about.
That would encompass lots of people who get on the Internet and pass judgement on politics, religion and, yes, the state of the Dodgers. So I'm going spend the rest of this baseball season taking people to task about what crap they might be spewing that day about baseball and I hope to do it not using a single statistic.
p.s. I was a writer/editor many years ago but I no longer care that much about grammar, punctuation, style rules, etc., so you will have to get use to that.
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