Well I was wrong. I thought it unlikely that the Dodgers would actually be able to pull off a major acquisition. But I'm not sure a team has ever hated a 28-year-old former super star so much that they were willing to give him and his once reasonable contract to a team for a pitcher like Nate E. and a No. 25 prospect.
Did any one else think that would happen? No.
And then I didn't think the Dodgers would botch the Dempster deal where at one point they had all the leverage. Guess they got greedy and over played their hand. The result being a gaping hole in the starting rotation going into a stretch run. Dumb. It has to be obvious to them at this point that they've screwed up the starting pitching.
Shane Victorino? Sure. That was logical and the level of transaction that usually happens. Brandon League. A little surprising. Usually you go for results rather than tools for the playoff run. League certainly has stuff. But not sure he knows where it's going currently. Choate. He is what he is and the Dodgers didn't have any of those.
Gave up EO. That hurt but had to happen given the situation. Lindblom. Think everyone had checked out of that hotel. Josh has a live arm but shows no real pitching skill as yet. It's quite possible he's as good as he's going to get. The rest were prospects outside the Top Ten List.
Bottom line. Two gigantic dark holes filled. Bullpen improved. Starting rotation degraded.
Prospects are so overvalued it's pathetic. How about the 2008 Top Ten Prospect List. That would be: Kershaw, LaRoche, Hu, Elbert, DeWitt, Withrow, McDonald, Meloan, D. Young, Pedro Baez. I can only imagine who was 11th through 20th. Yeah let's not trade any of those guys because, you know, maybe 15 percent of em are going to be good. Note. Nobody thinks Zach Lee is the second, third or fourth coming of Mr. Kershaw.
Hanley looks strong, fast and an adequate fielder at third. He's going to walk some. And he's going to hit a few game winners. But he's an undisciplined hitter who likes to hot dog a little. If he adds just 40 points to his stat line numbers he'll justify his contract. Maybe not even that due to the dark hole nature of third base in the major leagues. But please don't mistake him - at all - for Manny. And it may turn out he doesn't justify his contract if left to his way of doing things.
There are only two players that can carry the Dodgers to the playoffs: Kershaw and Kemp. The two true super stars currently on the team. They both have to do what they did last August and September. For Kemp that means hitting 7 or 8 home runs a month and basically bludgeoning the opposition in a way that allows the rest of the offense to follow right behind him. And Kershaw has to be as close to a sure thing as possible. They both did it last year.
So all the angst about what the Dodgers have or don't have is fine but it really doesn't matter. You can make a strong argument that the team is significantly improved over last year but so what. What matters is if Kemp and Kershaw can lead like they have in the past.
If they can't the Dodgers won't win it's as simple as that. If they can anything is possible.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Part 2: VietnamDodger Shows Stat Boys How It's Done
A month or so ago there was nobody on the Dodger blogs saying, hey let's go get Shane Victorino.
The idea seemed repulsive to most. Can't say I liked the idea because of Shane's punkish nature. But one person said he was the right guy and the Dodgers would trade for him. Come on down VietnamDodger. VND says she's a young doctor from San Francisco doing research in Vietnam. OK, I know, it's the Internet. Let's go with it for now.
Anyway, it wasn't just someone's lame idea tossed out like a thousand others. She had the WHYS. The Whys are so often not a part of the one-dimensional Stat Boy lexicon. They rather just throw down a stat line and claim that number answers all of Man's questions on Earth.
Her Why amounted to this: left field, lead off, speed, defense, cheap, fills a giant black hole, Phillies going bust and the kind of player the Dodgers need.
VietnamDodger runs around with a bunch of Stat Boys at Tragic Illness. The Stat Boys rained down on poor VietnamDodger. No way they said. With their best scientific argument being, We Don't Like Him. Predictable Stat Boys. They call you a dumbass when you don't buy their advanced metric "luck" stat or whatever but if it's something they don't have a number for they go all, We Don't Like Him. Picture a whiny boy's chorus.
On July 13th I bought in to VietnamDodger's idea. Wrote about it here. It made perfect sense. It was the logical outcome.
The Stat Boys hated the idea so much they actually said they preferred Alfonso Soriano. Yes, the same people who go on and on about the picking-up-lame-contract-dead-horse, wanted to pay Soriano for two more years after this. Cute aren't they.
Never was Chase Headley going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Cole Hamels going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Justin Upton going to be traded to the Dodgers. On and On. But VietnamDodger had the Shane deal pegged artfully and early. And she never backed down. She needs to move to a better neighborhood.
THE DEMPSTER PROBLEM
The Dodgers did well at the trading deadline but it may have all gone for not because they made the stupid mistake of not getting Mr. Dempster from the Cubs. I guess the testosterone between the two teams just got so thick that no one could be the better man and make the deal happen.
So you fix the offense, improve your bullpen but leave a gaping hole in your starting pitching. WTF. The Dodgers could still win the division with what they have but going into the playoffs, WTF.
Maybe one of the minor league pitchers will suddenly grow up. Maybe Barney Fife discovers that missing 95 mph fastball that Keith Law says he has. Maybe C Bills' trend towards challenging the strike zone keeps moving forward. Maybe Rubby de la rosa will be thrown into the fire after all and survive. Any of these could happen.
But why wait for miracles if you don't have too. Hanley is not going to carry the Dodgers single-handedly through the playoffs or anywhere else for that matter.
Clown Mistake.
Jonah Keri's Take On The Shane Trade
You can read it right here.
The idea seemed repulsive to most. Can't say I liked the idea because of Shane's punkish nature. But one person said he was the right guy and the Dodgers would trade for him. Come on down VietnamDodger. VND says she's a young doctor from San Francisco doing research in Vietnam. OK, I know, it's the Internet. Let's go with it for now.
Anyway, it wasn't just someone's lame idea tossed out like a thousand others. She had the WHYS. The Whys are so often not a part of the one-dimensional Stat Boy lexicon. They rather just throw down a stat line and claim that number answers all of Man's questions on Earth.
Her Why amounted to this: left field, lead off, speed, defense, cheap, fills a giant black hole, Phillies going bust and the kind of player the Dodgers need.
VietnamDodger runs around with a bunch of Stat Boys at Tragic Illness. The Stat Boys rained down on poor VietnamDodger. No way they said. With their best scientific argument being, We Don't Like Him. Predictable Stat Boys. They call you a dumbass when you don't buy their advanced metric "luck" stat or whatever but if it's something they don't have a number for they go all, We Don't Like Him. Picture a whiny boy's chorus.
On July 13th I bought in to VietnamDodger's idea. Wrote about it here. It made perfect sense. It was the logical outcome.
The Stat Boys hated the idea so much they actually said they preferred Alfonso Soriano. Yes, the same people who go on and on about the picking-up-lame-contract-dead-horse, wanted to pay Soriano for two more years after this. Cute aren't they.
Never was Chase Headley going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Cole Hamels going to be traded to the Dodgers. Never was Justin Upton going to be traded to the Dodgers. On and On. But VietnamDodger had the Shane deal pegged artfully and early. And she never backed down. She needs to move to a better neighborhood.
THE DEMPSTER PROBLEM
The Dodgers did well at the trading deadline but it may have all gone for not because they made the stupid mistake of not getting Mr. Dempster from the Cubs. I guess the testosterone between the two teams just got so thick that no one could be the better man and make the deal happen.
So you fix the offense, improve your bullpen but leave a gaping hole in your starting pitching. WTF. The Dodgers could still win the division with what they have but going into the playoffs, WTF.
Maybe one of the minor league pitchers will suddenly grow up. Maybe Barney Fife discovers that missing 95 mph fastball that Keith Law says he has. Maybe C Bills' trend towards challenging the strike zone keeps moving forward. Maybe Rubby de la rosa will be thrown into the fire after all and survive. Any of these could happen.
But why wait for miracles if you don't have too. Hanley is not going to carry the Dodgers single-handedly through the playoffs or anywhere else for that matter.
Clown Mistake.
Jonah Keri's Take On The Shane Trade
You can read it right here.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Part 1: Stat Kids Head Expodes Video At 11
This has been a rough 48 hours or so for the dedicated Stat Kids.
You know prospects were bound to be traded and that can just rip the guts out of a Stat Kid. Oh The Value. Oh The Rentals. Oh Ned being Ned. Sky is falling, stuff like that.
Check this poor kid out. Seems he was a little upset over the Brandon League trade.
Of course John has never seen Landry play.
JohnM
Decent upside. If you have a good cry over trading your 20th or 30th best prospect - depending on who you talk to - for a major league pitcher, you're in for a very painful baseball hobby.
I think League improves the middle of the Dodger bullpen. He's an upgrade over Lindblom, Javy, Elbert and Wright. That's not nothing in a pennant race. Tragic Illness thinks League is just a GUY. Of course what Tragic does best is disparage players and so he doesn't give the GUY credit at all. We'll see how that works out.
Baseball isn't about building the most complete bunch of minor leaguers who will never play in the big leagues. It's about winning. This is a trade, however small, that helps the Dodgers' cause.
One of John's friends in the chat room tells it better than me:
JeffKlein
JONAH POWER POLL.
Interesting stuff here.
You know prospects were bound to be traded and that can just rip the guts out of a Stat Kid. Oh The Value. Oh The Rentals. Oh Ned being Ned. Sky is falling, stuff like that.
Check this poor kid out. Seems he was a little upset over the Brandon League trade.
JohnM
Leon Landry is a third round draft pick from 2009. He is currently ranked 20th on MLB.com top 20 dodger prospects. He is described as a player who can hit for average and not strike out. He doesn't have a ton of homer power, but can hit the ball in the gaps for doubles and triples. He has good instincts in the outfield and on the basepaths allowing his speed to play up even more. He's a very good defender who could profile as a top of the order guy in the future.
JohnM
efb Landry could become an above average 5 tool outfielder
Of course John has never seen Landry play.
JohnM
Deuce phattonez7 He was good in 09 and 11. And he may even get things back on track, but even if he does the most value he can get us as a TWO MONTH RENTAL is a .5 WAR. And that is not worth a prospect with a decent upside in a farm system that is lacking good position players.
phattonez7 JohnM You regard him far too little. League sucks. He's about a 0.2-0.4 WAR and if he regresses to his xFIP he could be even worse. That is not worth a prospect with any kind of upside. I'm not opposed to training Landry or anyone in the dodger farm system, as long as we don't trade them for crap.
Decent upside. If you have a good cry over trading your 20th or 30th best prospect - depending on who you talk to - for a major league pitcher, you're in for a very painful baseball hobby.
I think League improves the middle of the Dodger bullpen. He's an upgrade over Lindblom, Javy, Elbert and Wright. That's not nothing in a pennant race. Tragic Illness thinks League is just a GUY. Of course what Tragic does best is disparage players and so he doesn't give the GUY credit at all. We'll see how that works out.
Baseball isn't about building the most complete bunch of minor leaguers who will never play in the big leagues. It's about winning. This is a trade, however small, that helps the Dodgers' cause.
One of John's friends in the chat room tells it better than me:
JeffKlein
JohnM WAR is only useful as a macro stat over several seasons - there's too much variation - and it's not the end all be all. You can't live your baseball life by Sabermetrics. When we are playing the Giants and the momentum shifts towards SF and League comes in and kills their momentum, what stat are you going to use for that? What stat to you use when someone like Hairston steps it up playing well above his talent level for a month while Kemp is on the DL.
Remember George Sherrill, he had a great WAR the season he came over to the Dodgers. And look what happened. WAR means almost nothing in the short term.
League is a veteran presence on the mound, more effective and reliable than our other veteran relievers like Wright. League might come over and totally crap out. But it's not like we gave up much anyway.
JONAH POWER POLL.
Interesting stuff here.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Trayvon Robinson Come On Down
The thing about Stat Boys is even when proven wrong by, you know, actual events, they'll argue until their parent's cellar burns down around them.
I laughed out loud yesterday when I read someone still mad about Ned trading Trayvon Robinson for Tim Fedx, Stephen Barney Fife and Juan Rodriguez. The argument then and today is still it doesn't matter how the trade actually, you know, turns out, the point is the Dodgers didn't get enough value back for one of their top prospects.
WAH.
Tim Fedx will most likely be the Dodger backup catcher next year, Fife has won two important games this year for the Dodgers and Rodriguez is still at Top 20 prospect in the Dodger organization. Meanwhile, Trayvon continues to do what he does best - strike out.
Ned, who we all know has a spotty record, had a reasonable explanation for the situation. The Dodgers needed a catching prospect. Trayvon had been passed up by Jerry "I'm Still In The Minors" Sands. A couple pitchers thrown in. Why not. Obviously the Dodger organization didn't think Trayvon was going to be a star otherwise they wouldn't have traded him. I bought into it just because I had no expectations for Trayvon. And I knew it wasn't Ned doing the scouting.
"But they didn't get value!"
Is that the same as it didn't look good on paper? Whose paper? What color is the paper? Who gave you the paper? Did you even see the paper? Maybe Stat Boy Patron Saint Keith Law told you what was on the paper and you bit. How does anyone on AssClown Island know anything about prospects except what they read on their 'puter.
No one knows what's going to happen with prospects except that only a tiny percentage will ever start a major league game.
I expect a lot of these Stat Boys try to emulate Keith Law. Here's what he had to say on the matter.
The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fifeprobably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.
Keith Law is a professional. Don't try this at home. BTW who told Mr. Law that Fife throws anything close to 95.
Poor Jerry Sands
One of the reasons I applaud players like Luis Cruz and Elian Herrera at every opportunity is that they never got anything handed to them. They persevered and when they finally got a chance showed that they could play Major League baseball.
For that they can't be mentioned without the accompanying lifetime minor leaguer reference or something insulting like that.
I'm even more bitter about it when Elian gets sent down even though in many, many ways he's a better player than Juan Uribe. That's some giants mounds of BS right there.
Elian may never get to the Majors again, yet, come hell or high water Juan Uribe gets to keep sitting on the bench offering nothing at all to the Dodgers.
So now Jerry Sands hits two grand slams and people start talking again about putting him in left field. This Spring the Dodgers were begging him to win the left field job. Instead, he sucked. He got another chance early in the season. He sucked.
I want Jerry Sands to succeed but now he's got to prove it. He's hitting below the Mendoza line (.290 is the Mendoza line in that league) for the Isotopes. Some people speculate that it's his stubbornness that's holding him back. I don't know. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't get a September call up. The Dodgers might be pissed off enough with him to give him the Ivan DeJesus Jr. treatment.
Don't Do It Ned
I think the Dodgers need Dempster. But if the cost is Alfonso Soriano and any significant part of his contract run away Ned. FAST. The thought of paying Soriano, even Uribe money for the next two years is frightening. Hey maybe it pays off. Still, frightening.
Just because the new Dodgers regime has a lot of cash it doesn't mean it should potentially sacrifice some important free agent signing money. Hanley, obviously yes. Alfonso, please no.
I laughed out loud yesterday when I read someone still mad about Ned trading Trayvon Robinson for Tim Fedx, Stephen Barney Fife and Juan Rodriguez. The argument then and today is still it doesn't matter how the trade actually, you know, turns out, the point is the Dodgers didn't get enough value back for one of their top prospects.
WAH.
Tim Fedx will most likely be the Dodger backup catcher next year, Fife has won two important games this year for the Dodgers and Rodriguez is still at Top 20 prospect in the Dodger organization. Meanwhile, Trayvon continues to do what he does best - strike out.
Ned, who we all know has a spotty record, had a reasonable explanation for the situation. The Dodgers needed a catching prospect. Trayvon had been passed up by Jerry "I'm Still In The Minors" Sands. A couple pitchers thrown in. Why not. Obviously the Dodger organization didn't think Trayvon was going to be a star otherwise they wouldn't have traded him. I bought into it just because I had no expectations for Trayvon. And I knew it wasn't Ned doing the scouting.
"But they didn't get value!"
Is that the same as it didn't look good on paper? Whose paper? What color is the paper? Who gave you the paper? Did you even see the paper? Maybe Stat Boy Patron Saint Keith Law told you what was on the paper and you bit. How does anyone on AssClown Island know anything about prospects except what they read on their 'puter.
No one knows what's going to happen with prospects except that only a tiny percentage will ever start a major league game.
I expect a lot of these Stat Boys try to emulate Keith Law. Here's what he had to say on the matter.
The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fifeprobably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.
Keith Law is a professional. Don't try this at home. BTW who told Mr. Law that Fife throws anything close to 95.
Poor Jerry Sands
One of the reasons I applaud players like Luis Cruz and Elian Herrera at every opportunity is that they never got anything handed to them. They persevered and when they finally got a chance showed that they could play Major League baseball.
For that they can't be mentioned without the accompanying lifetime minor leaguer reference or something insulting like that.
I'm even more bitter about it when Elian gets sent down even though in many, many ways he's a better player than Juan Uribe. That's some giants mounds of BS right there.
Elian may never get to the Majors again, yet, come hell or high water Juan Uribe gets to keep sitting on the bench offering nothing at all to the Dodgers.
So now Jerry Sands hits two grand slams and people start talking again about putting him in left field. This Spring the Dodgers were begging him to win the left field job. Instead, he sucked. He got another chance early in the season. He sucked.
I want Jerry Sands to succeed but now he's got to prove it. He's hitting below the Mendoza line (.290 is the Mendoza line in that league) for the Isotopes. Some people speculate that it's his stubbornness that's holding him back. I don't know. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't get a September call up. The Dodgers might be pissed off enough with him to give him the Ivan DeJesus Jr. treatment.
Don't Do It Ned
I think the Dodgers need Dempster. But if the cost is Alfonso Soriano and any significant part of his contract run away Ned. FAST. The thought of paying Soriano, even Uribe money for the next two years is frightening. Hey maybe it pays off. Still, frightening.
Just because the new Dodgers regime has a lot of cash it doesn't mean it should potentially sacrifice some important free agent signing money. Hanley, obviously yes. Alfonso, please no.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Watching The LA/SF Game On Sunday
Glad to see the Miami Fish are already writing poems and singing songs for Mr. Eo Evaldi. His new team had better things to say about him than Don Baseball ever did. The Dodgers have to make that trade. Fine. But the Stat Boys never gave EO his due.
Well he doesn't strike out enough people to be good. Idiots.
He only has two pitches. Idiots.
If they did their scouting somewhere other than on BR looking at one dimensional statistics out there on AssClown Island, well, .... EO obviously has electric stuff and is developing in an obvious learning curve. Making judgements out of context using static stats is, well, unsound. EO may never get there but he definitely has a high ceiling. Check out the Miami Herald on EO.
CRUUUUUUZZZZ.
Ooops, Luis just booted one. I hope that doesn't start the cry for Hanley moving to shortstop. Luis Cruz is yet another Dodger not getting his just accolades from the Dodger Fans - Stat Boy Division. His defense is steady and his offense, well, for shortstops, it's not bad at all.
Stat Boys freak out if an OBP falls below .300. If Luis had 6 more walks mixed into his small sample of stats the Stat Boys would be drooling all over him. Those 6 walks wouldn't have meant much in the overall scheme of things but the key hits he's provided have been monumental in the run-free zone the Dodgers have been living in.
A shortstop with a .721 OPS is often revered. Because of the thickness of the stat boy goggles they want to move him out of the lineup. Sheesh.
CHADDDDDDDDD
Yes, the "Casual Fans'' have had a problem with Mr. C Bills. I don't mind Chad. He is what he is. But he got into the 8th inning yesterday and he only had two K's. No walks. The game before another good outing. Four K's. No walks.
One of the most over-used stats at AssClown Island is the K/9. Not that it's not a good indicator. It's the belief you can't be good without it. Walks are by far more important. If you're not walking people you always have a chance. If you're walking a lot of people you have no chance.
So Bills gets to the 8th with only a couple K's. The calls from you know where sound like Oh he must have got lucky. Will the noise never stop?.
LUCCCCKKKKY STAATTTS
If the "Lucky Stats'' are based on subjective and generalized calls by statisticians how are they worth anything meaningful. If that's all you got you might as well stick with "luck evens out."
Well he doesn't strike out enough people to be good. Idiots.
He only has two pitches. Idiots.
If they did their scouting somewhere other than on BR looking at one dimensional statistics out there on AssClown Island, well, .... EO obviously has electric stuff and is developing in an obvious learning curve. Making judgements out of context using static stats is, well, unsound. EO may never get there but he definitely has a high ceiling. Check out the Miami Herald on EO.
CRUUUUUUZZZZ.
Ooops, Luis just booted one. I hope that doesn't start the cry for Hanley moving to shortstop. Luis Cruz is yet another Dodger not getting his just accolades from the Dodger Fans - Stat Boy Division. His defense is steady and his offense, well, for shortstops, it's not bad at all.
Stat Boys freak out if an OBP falls below .300. If Luis had 6 more walks mixed into his small sample of stats the Stat Boys would be drooling all over him. Those 6 walks wouldn't have meant much in the overall scheme of things but the key hits he's provided have been monumental in the run-free zone the Dodgers have been living in.
A shortstop with a .721 OPS is often revered. Because of the thickness of the stat boy goggles they want to move him out of the lineup. Sheesh.
CHADDDDDDDDD
Yes, the "Casual Fans'' have had a problem with Mr. C Bills. I don't mind Chad. He is what he is. But he got into the 8th inning yesterday and he only had two K's. No walks. The game before another good outing. Four K's. No walks.
One of the most over-used stats at AssClown Island is the K/9. Not that it's not a good indicator. It's the belief you can't be good without it. Walks are by far more important. If you're not walking people you always have a chance. If you're walking a lot of people you have no chance.
So Bills gets to the 8th with only a couple K's. The calls from you know where sound like Oh he must have got lucky. Will the noise never stop?.
LUCCCCKKKKY STAATTTS
If the "Lucky Stats'' are based on subjective and generalized calls by statisticians how are they worth anything meaningful. If that's all you got you might as well stick with "luck evens out."
Friday, July 27, 2012
Playing Chicken Is Fun But Everything Still Points To Dempster
OK, the Dodgers said no because they have the leverage. Dempster now says he'll go anywhere because he's an AssClown. The Braves said See Ya. The Cubs say Atlanta is still an option. Dempster is never going to sign with the Cubs. The Cubs now hate Dempster and the Dodgers. Blah, Blah, Blah.
Testosterone aside I think the Dempster still ends up in Los Angeles.
Now a different result could happen five minutes from now but unless someone puts extreme buttheadedness before business this is the logical outcome.
Garza was a solid option but once he got hurt that trade went poof for now. Unlikely to be any other Hanley situations out there where a team wants to get rid of the guy so bad they'll do a giant salary dump. There might be another hitter out there that falls into that category but not pitchers.
The Dodgers don't have the goods to compete for the Miami and Tampa Bay pitchers. They couldn't compete on Greinke. Not many options. Everyone should just find a way to save some face and make the Dempster deal. And by Tuesday I think - I hope - everyone comes to that conclusion.
Please no D pitchers. Just play nice and get Dempster. And please don't do the negotiation for extension gambit. Don't sign any more pitchers for next year until after the season. Please.
Now regarding the position player the Dodgers seek. That could be a shocker. That player could come from anywhere. I've proposed Josh W. all along but nobody is talking about it. People talk about Shane and I think it makes sense but the Karma potential is bad. There are a number of nasty contracts out there that the Dodgers might decide on. But, you know, there are only so many bad contracts the Dodgers can support without damaging their opportunities in free agency.
Also, several teams are now precariously perched on that seller/buyer tight rope and so there will be new potential trade candidates every 24 hours or so. Or at least that will be the talk. Boys will be boys so I expect the Dempster thing to go right down to the wire. Every one has to twist the knife a few more times before every one is happy.
I Like Jonah Keri.
I think you can say Jonah Keri is a stat boy. So why does VODF pimp a stat boy? Because he's a professional, not an amateur. He's sees a wide playing field. And he's a sweet writer. Oh did I forget he knows something about baseball.
Here's his take on the Hanley trade. It's chock full of advanced metrics for you amateur stat boys so take a look. Have I mentioned how much I like the writing at Grantland? Probably.
BRING THE HEAT
I don't know how many of you have tried to do something very skillful and physical while in a stadium before thousands of people with the temperature over 100 degrees and the humidity gawd awful. Raise your hands. Right, none.
The Dodger starters struggled because of the extreme weather conditions. Most of them started strong and died in the middle innings. For people to say they are athletes and should be able to handle that I LAUGH OUT LOUD.
For people who say well the Cardinal pitchers did OK, I LAUGH OUT LOUD. People, people. Try it and then talk to me. Do it for a few seasons and then tell me you don't have an advantage over visitors.
Kershaw, C CAP. No worries.
Testosterone aside I think the Dempster still ends up in Los Angeles.
Now a different result could happen five minutes from now but unless someone puts extreme buttheadedness before business this is the logical outcome.
Garza was a solid option but once he got hurt that trade went poof for now. Unlikely to be any other Hanley situations out there where a team wants to get rid of the guy so bad they'll do a giant salary dump. There might be another hitter out there that falls into that category but not pitchers.
The Dodgers don't have the goods to compete for the Miami and Tampa Bay pitchers. They couldn't compete on Greinke. Not many options. Everyone should just find a way to save some face and make the Dempster deal. And by Tuesday I think - I hope - everyone comes to that conclusion.
Please no D pitchers. Just play nice and get Dempster. And please don't do the negotiation for extension gambit. Don't sign any more pitchers for next year until after the season. Please.
Now regarding the position player the Dodgers seek. That could be a shocker. That player could come from anywhere. I've proposed Josh W. all along but nobody is talking about it. People talk about Shane and I think it makes sense but the Karma potential is bad. There are a number of nasty contracts out there that the Dodgers might decide on. But, you know, there are only so many bad contracts the Dodgers can support without damaging their opportunities in free agency.
Also, several teams are now precariously perched on that seller/buyer tight rope and so there will be new potential trade candidates every 24 hours or so. Or at least that will be the talk. Boys will be boys so I expect the Dempster thing to go right down to the wire. Every one has to twist the knife a few more times before every one is happy.
I Like Jonah Keri.
I think you can say Jonah Keri is a stat boy. So why does VODF pimp a stat boy? Because he's a professional, not an amateur. He's sees a wide playing field. And he's a sweet writer. Oh did I forget he knows something about baseball.
Here's his take on the Hanley trade. It's chock full of advanced metrics for you amateur stat boys so take a look. Have I mentioned how much I like the writing at Grantland? Probably.
BRING THE HEAT
I don't know how many of you have tried to do something very skillful and physical while in a stadium before thousands of people with the temperature over 100 degrees and the humidity gawd awful. Raise your hands. Right, none.
The Dodger starters struggled because of the extreme weather conditions. Most of them started strong and died in the middle innings. For people to say they are athletes and should be able to handle that I LAUGH OUT LOUD.
For people who say well the Cardinal pitchers did OK, I LAUGH OUT LOUD. People, people. Try it and then talk to me. Do it for a few seasons and then tell me you don't have an advantage over visitors.
Kershaw, C CAP. No worries.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Hanley/Dodger Honeymoon Well Under Way
(I expect the Dodgers will be completing a trade any moment now, but we'll carry on anyway.)
There's a lot of love in the air for the newly-acquired Mr. Hanley.
He clearly looks dangerous when in the batter's box. The whispers about his dropping numbers have mostly been about slowing bat speed whether it be from a shoulder injury or some other reason. It's always possible that the torrent of talent that once naturally sprang from his body has slowed down and what was once effortless is now a little harder to accomplish and he just doesn't know it yet.
Still, he's a legit threat in the middle of the lineup and that's where he should stay. If Hanley regains half the stat level he once boasted he'll be worth the $35 M and EO especially given third base is such a big, black hole. If he doesn't the Dodgers will once again pay the ugly cost of wishing upon a former star. I'm going to put the odds at 60-40 that Hanley doesn't drop another big nasty egg on the Dodgers.
One place he surely WON'T help is on defense.
Donnie Baseball being the stubborn guy he is will definitely cram Hanley into the starting shortstop hole. And D's main reason for doing this is to create the dreaded "Flexibility." I like Don. He's a good manager but he does have some blind spots. This one being Hanley at SS allows him to mix and match with Uribe, Kennedy, Cruz, Hairston, etc., at 3B.
JESUS CHRIST DON!. Three of those guys should never play 3B in the Majors again. And the other one doesn't want to. He hate it. OK, I'm just saying, why put a bad defender at maybe the most important defensive position on the field. Because that's what a player's manager does I guess. Please put Hanley at 3B and lock the door. Not going to happen. Otherwise, how would Uribe get in the lineup? One of the real mysteries. C'mon Don.
Nice, the Dodgers finally have a real situational lefty. Really needed that. Now comes Dempster and then one other position player.
HOPEFULLY THE STAT BOYS WON'T GIVE UP AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE THREE LOSSES AND WON'T WANT TO SELL OFF ALL THE DODGERS BECAUSE IT'S THE SMART THING TO DO.
In an equally frustrating note, Don Baseball is making it very clear that Dee Gordon is not a lock to get his shortstop job back. I guess that's healthy, really. Gordon should have to play for his job but the future All-Star makes the Dodger's potential greater when he's playing. Nobody talks much about Dee getting to a lot of balls that Cruz hasn't been able to get to. And Hanley surely won't be able to get to. Yes, Dee may throw the ball into the dugout for a few more months but his talent and natural ability is breathtaking.
One of the most Assclown things I read on the Interweb is how Dee Gordon is the worst shortstop in baseball. Why? Because the stats show it. This is one of the best examples of how one dimensional stats taken out of context reveal utter stupidity.
Sorry to see EO go but it's the opportunity cost. The Dodgers have the extra $36 Mil hanging around so that sealed the deal. The Fish knew what they were doing when they picked EO.
TRAGIC HEROES
Happy to see THE REAL PAUL standing up to some of the Stat Boys about there possibly being factors in baseball that affect outcomes that can't be STATICIZED.
And always my former BUD VIETNAMDODGER for occasionally smacking down the nerds about stats. There's not a stat in the world that can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Life is in REAL TIME BABY! LIVE IT!
There's a lot of love in the air for the newly-acquired Mr. Hanley.
He clearly looks dangerous when in the batter's box. The whispers about his dropping numbers have mostly been about slowing bat speed whether it be from a shoulder injury or some other reason. It's always possible that the torrent of talent that once naturally sprang from his body has slowed down and what was once effortless is now a little harder to accomplish and he just doesn't know it yet.
Still, he's a legit threat in the middle of the lineup and that's where he should stay. If Hanley regains half the stat level he once boasted he'll be worth the $35 M and EO especially given third base is such a big, black hole. If he doesn't the Dodgers will once again pay the ugly cost of wishing upon a former star. I'm going to put the odds at 60-40 that Hanley doesn't drop another big nasty egg on the Dodgers.
One place he surely WON'T help is on defense.
Donnie Baseball being the stubborn guy he is will definitely cram Hanley into the starting shortstop hole. And D's main reason for doing this is to create the dreaded "Flexibility." I like Don. He's a good manager but he does have some blind spots. This one being Hanley at SS allows him to mix and match with Uribe, Kennedy, Cruz, Hairston, etc., at 3B.
JESUS CHRIST DON!. Three of those guys should never play 3B in the Majors again. And the other one doesn't want to. He hate it. OK, I'm just saying, why put a bad defender at maybe the most important defensive position on the field. Because that's what a player's manager does I guess. Please put Hanley at 3B and lock the door. Not going to happen. Otherwise, how would Uribe get in the lineup? One of the real mysteries. C'mon Don.
Nice, the Dodgers finally have a real situational lefty. Really needed that. Now comes Dempster and then one other position player.
HOPEFULLY THE STAT BOYS WON'T GIVE UP AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE THREE LOSSES AND WON'T WANT TO SELL OFF ALL THE DODGERS BECAUSE IT'S THE SMART THING TO DO.
In an equally frustrating note, Don Baseball is making it very clear that Dee Gordon is not a lock to get his shortstop job back. I guess that's healthy, really. Gordon should have to play for his job but the future All-Star makes the Dodger's potential greater when he's playing. Nobody talks much about Dee getting to a lot of balls that Cruz hasn't been able to get to. And Hanley surely won't be able to get to. Yes, Dee may throw the ball into the dugout for a few more months but his talent and natural ability is breathtaking.
One of the most Assclown things I read on the Interweb is how Dee Gordon is the worst shortstop in baseball. Why? Because the stats show it. This is one of the best examples of how one dimensional stats taken out of context reveal utter stupidity.
Sorry to see EO go but it's the opportunity cost. The Dodgers have the extra $36 Mil hanging around so that sealed the deal. The Fish knew what they were doing when they picked EO.
TRAGIC HEROES
Happy to see THE REAL PAUL standing up to some of the Stat Boys about there possibly being factors in baseball that affect outcomes that can't be STATICIZED.
And always my former BUD VIETNAMDODGER for occasionally smacking down the nerds about stats. There's not a stat in the world that can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Life is in REAL TIME BABY! LIVE IT!
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