Emergency Post: He Hate Me Plus Answers

VODF is old and doesn't like to post twice in one day but the stat kids forced him to because they need answers.

Tragic Illness posts that Kenley Jansen throws 94 percent fastballs and notes that critics have said his velocity has dropped.

Poster asks, well he throws a cut fastball now mostly. And shouldn't that be why his velocity is off?

Tragic Illness answers, I don't know.

Mr. Poster the answer is yes. He's going all Mariano Rivera these days and that results in less velocity. But even his regular fastball is a little slower. But nobody is hitting a cutter at 94 and on the black. I think it's safe to say he's doing fine.

This is also rather obvious if you actually, you know, watch the games and understand what you're seeing.

And if you read VODF's blog you would also know that Nate Eovaldi is throwing 4 PITCHES for gawd's sake not the 2 people keep slamming him for. HE'S 22!


And then there was something that warmed old VODF's curmudgeon heart. A poster known to be a VODF hater, probably with good reason, said this:


davstein48 69 pts

I am assuming Lilly gets a D- because of all that missed time?  But I agree with other poster in that seems a little harsh. I don't want to sound like VODF (UGH) but it seems that your main complaint about Lilly all year was that his results were not supported by his metrics. Before he pitched those few games with his injury, all he was doing was getting batters out.  In the end that is the stat that counts. Lucky or not or pitching over his head or not---he still was getting outs and not giving up runs.

I ALMOST STROKED OUT. Rationality comes to the Tragic Illness chat room once again. I salute you Mr. Poster even if you hate VODF's guts. NICE JOB.

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I think JohnM from the Tragic Illness chat room is the prototypical Stat Kid. He readily admits if he had to scout a player he might not be able to tell a catcher from a pitcher but he spends every day telling everyone what's what when it comes to teams, trades and the value of every single professional player according to his nerd matrix.


I laughed for 15 minutes after reading this post. Count the number of subjective choices and generalizations that have to be made by an accountant - I mean non-playing stat guy - yet he talks about it as if it's iron clad science that should absolutely tell you who is good and who isn't. Ready?


JohnM 1423 pts

I'd just like to say, I agree with phattonez7  that SIERA is better than FIP. SIERA takes into account the strikeout pitchers induce weaker contact than non strikeout pitchers. It also takes into account that K pitchers give up less HR/FB. It also adds that K pitchers can induce grounders at a higher rate in double play situations because situational pitching is possible if the pitcher has dominant stuff. Also walks don't hurt low walk pitchers as much because they are capable of limiting future baserunners. Also groundball pitchers generally have a lower BABIP on grounders in play because the give up more grounders. It works the same for flyballs in that fly ball pitchers usually have less HR/FB. SIERA is more specific than FIP, in that it doesn't generalize things and acknowledges that different types of pitchers have different results.

Intelligent Life Found In Baseball Chatroom

Terry Pruett, in the Dodger Thought chatroom, is speaking about the much overused and seriously-flawed stat called BABIP. But for me this view applies to almost all stats including the traditional ones.  He eloquently describes my position on stat boys and the use of their stats (the second group he mentions) better that I have been able to. (I use the label stat boys for the people running around the Internet throwing out numbers without....well you've heard it before. Bill James, Rob Neyer, now those are advanced metric people I have great admiration for.)

I think the folks at Fangraphs and others that do this for a living understand the true use of this stat...the problem is the blogger or commenter or sportswriter that knows just enough to be dangerous and begins labeling players "lucky" or "unlucky" without looking at underlying causes.


Mr. TiensGohan also from the Dodger Thought chat room beautifully describes what launched the VODF rampage. He too is talking about the stat boys' favorite stat but again it can apply to many others. It's the disdain used in conjunction with other advanced metrics from people who just like to see themselves in Internet print that are the enemies of the sabre professionals.




TiensyGohanCollapse

There was an article on Fangraphs a couple weeks back about this very issue. Basically the point made was that calling BABIP-fueled performances "lucky" or "unlucky" not only misrepresents statistical analysis, but risks alienating popular audience by using condescending language that does not align well with reality. As you say, it is not just "luck" when Lincecum heaves a meatball down the pipe two, three times per game. It is not just "luck" that Billingsley's pitches have been hit harder. A fan will naturally feel that a stats analysis that calls BABIP "luck" has missed the point.

Terry Pruett makes a far more thoughtful, cogent presentation than I ever could regarding the special stat boy stat. 

Terry PruettCollapse

Now, the statement: I feel that, over time, each player (pitcher OR hitter) establishes his own mean level of BABIP, which may or may not conform to league average. For a hitter like a Matt Kemp, it would seem that the fact that he A) Crushes the ball, and B) Runs very well (infield hits)...will lead to a generally consistent high BABIP over time (and it has).

On pitchers, I would think that someone like Capuano (who for his career has a low .297 BABIP...not that far off from his current .270) has pitched long enough at basically the same BABIP level to say definitively that he is a "low BABIP pitcher". On the other hand, Billingsley does have a very high BABIP this year compared to his career levels...but his line drive percentage is also up substantially over his best years. Perhaps Billingsley has EARNED that high BABIP, and luck has nothing to do with it. Perhaps. For sure...and this is my opinion, Capuano has been far more effective than Billingsley this year.

Here are some links to a sports oasis that houses the best sports writing in the country. Rani Jazayerli talks about the plight of the K.C. Royals. The trials and travails of a minor league system gone wrong. Grantland. Jonah Keri, a supremely talented writer, wrote a great piece on last night's All-Star Game.

I found the recent post by Chris Jackson at Tragic Illness about the Dodger minor league pitchers very useful. It serves a real purpose to tamp down the hysteria about prospects. It was also a break from the over-snarked, dead-horse beating that usually goes on there.

Headley, Upton, Get Real I'm Begging You Now

So awhile back I mentioned that there had been only three trades between the Padres and Dodgers in the history of baseball.

One was the three-way mercy trade of Greg Maddux. Three way because the Padres wanted to drop salary seeing as how they were already done and Maddux was really old and mostly done himself. Maddux because he got to play in maybe his last playoff race. Dodgers because they needed anyone who could pitch at all and it didn't cost 'em anything. (btw Maddux pitched pretty well.)

Another was a pitcher who pissed Lasorda off. And the only other one was someone named Al McBean who ended up pitching one inning for the Dodgers in 1970. O'Malley is on record now as saying he ordered his staff not to trade with the Padres.


My arguments with stat boys usually revolve around outlandish statements formed by only one thing - An advanced metric. When they get older, if they're smart, they'll realize that life is far more complicated than that.

So when I say the Padres won't trade Headley to the Dodgers period, yes, its about historical analysis. But it's also context. Baseball tradition says, right or wrong, you don't make significant trades with rivals because the potential blowback is, in their view, unbearable PR-wise, perhaps business-wise and certainly demoralizing-wise. So they just don't risk it. Chase Headley will never see a Dodger uniform unless he wears another team's uniform first.

So now you want to trade for Justin Upton. Never happen. Because the Diamondbacks flat out won't trade him to a rival like the Dodgers.

But the Dodgers and Diamond have traded before you say. Five times in fact. But one big fat note about that.

Paul DePodesta made three of those trades in his short 18-month reign of sabre-ness. If there's anybody in the history of baseball GM's who was not going to follow baseball management doctrine it was going to be DePodesta. He traded Shawn Green for a typical Moneyball player Dioner Navarro. He traded two higher level prospects for Steve Finley and Brent Mayne. He also acquired Elmer Dessens from the Diamondback for a minor leaguer.

The snakes later did drop Jon Garland on the Dodgers but that was a short-term dump.

So you see, trades between NL West rivals just don't happen. With the exception of Shawn Green/Paul D. no big name player that could still play ever got moved between the Dodgers and the Padres or Diamondbacks. There's been more activity between the Dodgers and Colorado but I attribute that to the altitude.

So all you computer GMs get back to checking out the rosters of teams out the playoff race that aren't in the NL West.

And don't kill the messenger. I don't necessarily agree about this trading philosophy but it's an utter waste of time to keep beating a very, very, unlikely horse.

You Think The Dodgers Can't Hit Now? Well....

In 1965 the Dodgers beat the Minnesota Twins in the World Series with clearly a much worse offensive team than they have now.

Frank Howard had just been traded to the Senators instantly turning my father into a Senators' fan. The year before he had taken my sister down to a local grocery store where Frank was signing autographs. My dad was smitten. Frank, who Vin described in the outfield as a runaway hook N ladder, became even more of a prodigious home run bomber once he left the Dodgers. Might have been able to use him in the last half of the God forsaken 60's. For years it was hard to like Mr. Claude Osteen (Did you know Osteen broke into the majors at age 17?) .


Late one night early in the 1965 season I listened as Vin described the horrible sight of Tommy Davis laying in the dirt with what was to be a season-ending broken leg. He was sliding into second though the play went to another base. He lay there in the dirt never having reached the base because his cleats had caught.


Fortunately it was still the era of the pitcher but for a young fan all seemed lost. Nobody on the Dodgers could hit and there was no Matt Kemp on the horizon.


Lou Johnson was the Elian Herrera, Cruz-type playing left field. Johnson did seem to provide some magic at times with a key hit here and there. I have no stats to support that but Vinny liked him and called him "Sweet Lou."


Willie Davis was Tony Gwynn Jr. around that time. He later had better seasons. He was hated for being an underachiever and dropper of fly balls. I guess Ron Fairly in right field was the Andre Ethier then if 9 home runs and 70 RBIs reminds you of Dre. He had a high OBP but to me that means he can walk some, didn't mean he was much of hitting threat.


John Roseboro, the clubber of Giants, wasn't hitting that year. Maury Wills was stealing bases but he wasn't much of a hitter. There was Wes Parker at first. He sometimes would resemble a good James Loney second half of the year. But not in 1965. He was still young and then he mostly sucked.


Dick Tracewski couldn't hit. I was overjoyed when he got traded to the Tigers the following year. A famous picture of him knocking down a ball in a key World Series situation was his biggest moment in the spotlight.


Jim Lefebvre won the rookie of the year that year for the Dodgers batting .250. He had a couple similar years but that was it. I once had lunch with Jim L. Heck of a nice guy. I didn't have the heart to ask how come somebody actually hired him as a hitting coach.


There was plenty of other offensive flotsam hanging around the Dodger clubhouse. Wally Moon was there playing the Juan Uribe role. Don LeJohn career minor leaguer. John Kennedy made Adam Kennedy look valuable offensively. And construction worker Al Ferrara. 


There was one man in the lineup you could depend on: Jim Junior Gilliam. One of the most underrated Dodgers of all time. One of the most underrated players of his time. This was his next to last year as a major leaguer but he was still The Man. He was a professional. He was a kind of hero for Dodger fans of those days. He just got it done. When he wasn't hurt.


That was it. Truly pathetic and mind-numbingly bad offense. At the time though I didn't complain. That's what the Dodger were then and besides we had these two Masters of the Universe. 

Everyone else had hitters we had two pitchers. That year Sandy Koufax allowed 120 less hits than innings pitched, struck out 382 and still somehow lost 8 games. Well we know how he lost most of them. Don Drysdale didn't miss a great deal of bats percentage-wise but I guess that's why his ERA was only 2.97 and he only won 23 games.

So I really don't want to hear about this tragic hitting club the Dodgers have now. Back when we were kids....


(p.s. being old makes your memory a little suspect. I apologize in advance if i got anything horribly wrong. Just a little wrong is OK in my book._

Stat Boys Get More Things Wrong, News At 11

I've jinxed Chris Capuano by saying this, but C CAP is one of the best free agent signings in the major leagues this year.

The stat kids were all "woe is me" when he was signed. "Oh the humanity, Oh the home runs. It's going to be a nightmare. Only if Kuroda would have stayed. Oh No! The staff would have been so much better with Kuroda. Oh No! Aaron Harang, Oh No! The number of home runs these two are going to allow will blot out the sun. Oh No! Run for your Lives!"

Who's given up more home runs "Big Show'' Harang or Kershaw. Kershaw. Has C Cap given up more home runs than Kershaw? No. Has either Harang or C Cap given up more home runs than Kuroda? No. C Cap is not as good a pitcher as Kershaw but this season he's pitched every bit as good as the Cy Young Award Winner.

Ned Coletti has put together one of the best pitching staffs in the majors while working with a bankrupt budget. Somebody should stop and thank him. You know, just once. Without it the Dodgers would not be in first place.

I saw an interview with Clayton Kershaw and he mentioned that he'd learned things by watching C Cap pitch. Tragic Illness and the stat kids should take a look at something other than their baseball Algos. It's not impossible that if they got their big heads out of the way they might learn something about baseball, too.


I'm getting pretty close to believing the Juan Uribe era is over.


Grantland had a different kind of statistic story on GM tendencies. Chart was interesting.


Jon Weisman did an excellent piece for the Los Angeles Magazine's CityThink regarding potential.


I've decided I must stop the madness. Phatoonez7 deserves his own place in history. We're going to call this feature The Phatoonez7 Daily Tragedy. His statistical analysis has reached epic proportions in its consistentcy and resilience against all baseball logic. Carry On Phat7. Never change.



phattonez7 119 pts

Hypothetical batter against Billingsley using career BABIP and Should Hit: 85 wRC+, 3.69 SIERA

Hypothetical batter against Capuano using career BABIP and Should Hit: 88 wRC+, 3.8 SIERA

I'm so tired of the vitriol against Billingsley and the universal acclaim for Capuano. They're the same pitcher.

It Takes More Than Snarkiness And Compiling Gibberish

This from Tragic Illness on the new hero Mark Ellis:

Mark Ellis is on the verge of a two-year deal with the Dodgers.

Alright, I guess. We all know the second base market is dire, especially now that Aaron Hillhas returned to Arizona, and though Ellis is coming off a brutal .288 OBP and will be 35 this season, he’s long been regarded as a plus defender. I’d love to not give him two years, yet in a world where Willie Bloomquist is getting two-year pacts, you can see how that might be unavoidable. At least I’m sure he’s not getting a ton of money, though. Wait, what

Ellis’s deal with the Dodgers worth a little less than $4.5 million per year, over the two years.

…and there it is. (Ken Rosenthal now confirms the deal, two years, $8.75m.) Mark Ellis is coming off a .288 OBP and is the proud owner of a better wOBA than Jamey Carrollexactly one time going back to 2006, yet he’s going to pull down about a million dollars more per season than the Carroll contractwe didn’t even particularly like. Ellis was once a solid player with some pop, hitting double-digit homers each year between 2005-09, but that’s declined precipitously as he’s aged and been injured, averaging 33.5 days on the disabled list over the last four seasons. (h/t to pal Jay Jaffe on that stat.) Ellis is pretty one-dimensional now, since he doesn’t get on base well, doesn’t have a lot of power, and only has real value in his defense. Age and injuries – particularly leg injuries, which is what Ellis has had – can do a lot to diminish an infielder, so if Ellis suffers even a little with the glove, that’s going to make him a trouble spot, quickly. At least he’s not going to cost the Dodgers a draft pick, though the Rockies do pick up one on their end.

As you can imagine, the reaction on Twitter has been negative/sad/hilarious depending on your perspective.

AND THE SOLUTION IS:

7) Bring back 2B Jamey Carroll for two years and $4m.

This actually scares the hell out of me, and I don’t really like doing it, much as I like Carroll. He’s got absolutely zero power and he’ll be 38 in February; to be honest, I hate everything about this. That said, the second base market is absolutely god awful. My version of the Dodgers can neither afford nor count on Hill or Johnson, and Carroll at least offers on-base skills and decent enough defense. Along with Sellers, he’s also a fallback position in case Gordon flails or is injured; I don’t want to give Carroll two years, yet that’s probably what the market will demand. Ideally, he could get through one more year as a solid OBP guy, and then a better 2B option emerges for 2013, allowing Carroll to spend the second year as the utility guy he really ought to be.

DONT FORGET TO CHECK ON JAMEY'S STATS THIS YEAR.