Very Old Dodger Fan
VODF says STATISTICS don't mean a thing if you don't how to play the game
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
Thursday, August 9, 2012
VODF SIGNS OFF AGAIN
Well it appears I need to put my full energy into rooting for the Dodgers as they apparently can't do it on their own. So thanks for reading and I'll talk to you later. Regarding the Stat Kids: A little more cheering and a lot less mindless bitching would be nice.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
The Dog Days That's What I'm Talking About
Last night the Rockies' announcers were trying to keep from laughing at the Dodgers inability to hit AT ALL.
They were saying the Rockies' starting pitching statistically was the worst in the Majors BY A LOT. And the bad pitching was reaching historical levels of badness stating that there might have been only one starting group that was worse EVER than the 2012 Rockies.
Now they did this in a way that didn't threaten their HOMER-NESS. The point they getting to (but would not say it directly) was just how bad the Dodger hitters looked.
They'd come with stuff like the Rockies starters couldn't get anybody out for two weeks and now they're throwing shutouts against these Dodgers, hmmmm. It was all they could do to stop from laughing out loud. They came back to this point several times during the game and each time you could imagine them looking at each other in the booth with their hands over their mouths trying to stifle a burst of chuckles.
The Dodger hitters have looked really bad the last two nights. We all expected more when Hanley and Shane arrived along with Kemp and Ethier being back.
I tried to make the point the other day that people should give Brandon League a chance because he's got nasty stuff. The answer that came back was why should he pitch well for the Dodgers when he sucked this year for Seattle? True enough.
In that same way Shane and Hanley were both sucking for their respective teams why should they do well for the Dodgers?
An interesting thing about a group of human beings trying to do anything is the large number of THINGS that can affect the outcome of whatever they're trying to do.
In the performance of a large group an individual's output can matter very little or it can change everything. People who are marginal can be above average in a certain group dynamic. The best performer can lose his/her mojo and never do much again.
The same person could develop into a leader in one group and be the heaviest anchor in another group. The factors and outcomes are endless. How can anyone believe any number explains what happened. Numbers are so hopelessly inadequate and one dimensional. It's always the WHY that's the most important answer.
So, anyway, the Dodgers for whatever reason, could blow up offensively tonight OR NOT. Who knows. There's no numeric reason for whatever occurs next. What hopefully might occur will be some sort of human catalyst or catalysts.
I think we all hope Matt Kemp just suddenly finds it and starts raining home runs across the Major Leagues and the rest of the Dodgers come right behind him. That would be fun. But it might just as well be Ethier or Hanley or, some other scenario. You choose.
End of today's dead-horse beating.
Whoops. Nope. More dead-horse beating. Please don't talk to me about Zack Lee being a sure thing. Check this out.
They were saying the Rockies' starting pitching statistically was the worst in the Majors BY A LOT. And the bad pitching was reaching historical levels of badness stating that there might have been only one starting group that was worse EVER than the 2012 Rockies.
Now they did this in a way that didn't threaten their HOMER-NESS. The point they getting to (but would not say it directly) was just how bad the Dodger hitters looked.
They'd come with stuff like the Rockies starters couldn't get anybody out for two weeks and now they're throwing shutouts against these Dodgers, hmmmm. It was all they could do to stop from laughing out loud. They came back to this point several times during the game and each time you could imagine them looking at each other in the booth with their hands over their mouths trying to stifle a burst of chuckles.
The Dodger hitters have looked really bad the last two nights. We all expected more when Hanley and Shane arrived along with Kemp and Ethier being back.
I tried to make the point the other day that people should give Brandon League a chance because he's got nasty stuff. The answer that came back was why should he pitch well for the Dodgers when he sucked this year for Seattle? True enough.
In that same way Shane and Hanley were both sucking for their respective teams why should they do well for the Dodgers?
An interesting thing about a group of human beings trying to do anything is the large number of THINGS that can affect the outcome of whatever they're trying to do.
In the performance of a large group an individual's output can matter very little or it can change everything. People who are marginal can be above average in a certain group dynamic. The best performer can lose his/her mojo and never do much again.
The same person could develop into a leader in one group and be the heaviest anchor in another group. The factors and outcomes are endless. How can anyone believe any number explains what happened. Numbers are so hopelessly inadequate and one dimensional. It's always the WHY that's the most important answer.
So, anyway, the Dodgers for whatever reason, could blow up offensively tonight OR NOT. Who knows. There's no numeric reason for whatever occurs next. What hopefully might occur will be some sort of human catalyst or catalysts.
I think we all hope Matt Kemp just suddenly finds it and starts raining home runs across the Major Leagues and the rest of the Dodgers come right behind him. That would be fun. But it might just as well be Ethier or Hanley or, some other scenario. You choose.
End of today's dead-horse beating.
Whoops. Nope. More dead-horse beating. Please don't talk to me about Zack Lee being a sure thing. Check this out.
the very top ranked dodger prospect from 2010 to 2000
Dee Gordon
Andrew Lambo
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Chad Bills
Joel Guzman
Edwin Jackson
James Loney
Ricardo Rodriguez
Ben Diggens
Chin-Feg Chen
Andrew Lambo
Clayton Kershaw
Andy LaRoche
Chad Bills
Joel Guzman
Edwin Jackson
James Loney
Ricardo Rodriguez
Ben Diggens
Chin-Feg Chen
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
The Gang's All Here - Now What?
I haven't looked it up but I can't remember the Dodgers ever picking up this many good Major League players at the trade deadline.
OK, you can argue who qualifies as a good Major Leaguer. But compared to most everyone else the Dodgers have traded for over the years I'm going with it. Of course there's the point of view that they also had a lot of deep, dark holes to fill. Whatever.
In my opinion these players are all upgrades of the 25-man roster and certainly better than the minor leaguers people clamor for when things aren't going well. Brandon League? Hey, the dude has got some nasty, nasty stuff. It is a shame that at this point in time he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. And if he doesn't throw the nasty stuff he gets hit hard. But hey, he's got potential.
Not as much as Hanley of course. That guy looks like a player. Unfortunately, he's getting dangerously close to the end of the honeymoon period and everyone expects more than 1 home run every 50 at bats or so and a less-than-700 OPS.
The Colorado announcers were speculating last night that Hanley's swing has gotten longer since his heyday a few years ago. They said now he starts his swing holding his hands near his face. Then he goes back and then forward making for a long swing. When he hits it goes bang but he's not squaring the ball up regularly. I was surprised when I saw that he's only struck out 8 times in 46 at bats. With that big swing and his willingness to hack outside the zone I thought it would be more.
The boss at Miami took another swipe at Hanley yesterday. When asked about Hanley and the salary dump the guy said his team made zero salary dumps. "Every trade we made was to better the club." Oooh. Man the Fish brass really hate the kid.
There was a standing ovation around Dodgerdom yesterday as Jerry Sands was called up. Jerry the Savior. Or the Jerry that's better than Loney or Rivera. Or the Jerry that should have been playing all along.
In the first Jerry story the kid talks about how his recent success in New Mexico was due to him going back to his old stance. The one where he starts with the bat sitting or near sitting on his shoulder. Good luck with that kid. That makes for a slow bat. And your first at bats last night didn't look a lot better than a couple months ago when you struck out 8 out of 20 visits to the plate.
I hope he knows what he's doing. The coaches are probably saying WTF-ever Jerry just do it because you're running out of chances. I hope he succeeds.
I had really hoped that last night would be the start of a big run to the division title. I should just keep my thoughts to myself. What a depressing effort. C Cap didn't pitch good but he pitched good enough. The problem was where you didn't expect it to be and if that doesn't change things aren't going to progress well.
Matt Kemp, the Dodger's best player, and Hanley, the Dodger's best new acquisition left men on first and second with no outs TWICE. They didn't get the ball out of the infield. The Rockies pitcher shut them down. That just can't happen. Once, maybe, but not twice.
That's the season right there in a nutshell. If the Dodgers best players execute when they're suppose to the team will go far. If not, more depressing disappointment is on the program.
OK, you can argue who qualifies as a good Major Leaguer. But compared to most everyone else the Dodgers have traded for over the years I'm going with it. Of course there's the point of view that they also had a lot of deep, dark holes to fill. Whatever.
In my opinion these players are all upgrades of the 25-man roster and certainly better than the minor leaguers people clamor for when things aren't going well. Brandon League? Hey, the dude has got some nasty, nasty stuff. It is a shame that at this point in time he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. And if he doesn't throw the nasty stuff he gets hit hard. But hey, he's got potential.
Not as much as Hanley of course. That guy looks like a player. Unfortunately, he's getting dangerously close to the end of the honeymoon period and everyone expects more than 1 home run every 50 at bats or so and a less-than-700 OPS.
The Colorado announcers were speculating last night that Hanley's swing has gotten longer since his heyday a few years ago. They said now he starts his swing holding his hands near his face. Then he goes back and then forward making for a long swing. When he hits it goes bang but he's not squaring the ball up regularly. I was surprised when I saw that he's only struck out 8 times in 46 at bats. With that big swing and his willingness to hack outside the zone I thought it would be more.
The boss at Miami took another swipe at Hanley yesterday. When asked about Hanley and the salary dump the guy said his team made zero salary dumps. "Every trade we made was to better the club." Oooh. Man the Fish brass really hate the kid.
There was a standing ovation around Dodgerdom yesterday as Jerry Sands was called up. Jerry the Savior. Or the Jerry that's better than Loney or Rivera. Or the Jerry that should have been playing all along.
In the first Jerry story the kid talks about how his recent success in New Mexico was due to him going back to his old stance. The one where he starts with the bat sitting or near sitting on his shoulder. Good luck with that kid. That makes for a slow bat. And your first at bats last night didn't look a lot better than a couple months ago when you struck out 8 out of 20 visits to the plate.
I hope he knows what he's doing. The coaches are probably saying WTF-ever Jerry just do it because you're running out of chances. I hope he succeeds.
I had really hoped that last night would be the start of a big run to the division title. I should just keep my thoughts to myself. What a depressing effort. C Cap didn't pitch good but he pitched good enough. The problem was where you didn't expect it to be and if that doesn't change things aren't going to progress well.
Matt Kemp, the Dodger's best player, and Hanley, the Dodger's best new acquisition left men on first and second with no outs TWICE. They didn't get the ball out of the infield. The Rockies pitcher shut them down. That just can't happen. Once, maybe, but not twice.
That's the season right there in a nutshell. If the Dodgers best players execute when they're suppose to the team will go far. If not, more depressing disappointment is on the program.
Monday, August 6, 2012
OK, No Waiting On Jerry Sands After all
Wrong again VODF.
Sands' past failures and the Dodgers continuing habit of doing what ever gyrations they can manage to keep old guys with contracts had me convinced that this move would not happen until September.
Gwynn had a least some value given his defensive prowess. But with Shane on board his role became first left-handed pinch hitter off the bench and that exposed Tony even more.
But what does Juan Uribe have to do to get "exposed."
Anyway, surprised or not, it's a good move. And hopefully it makes official the notion of not keeping marginal players because, well, their experienced or something.
That being said Jerry Sands is no mortal lock cinch to make all his new found supporters happy. He batted .200 when he was up earlier in the season and almost that in Spring Training. But like Dee, he had a good September last year.
That's why everyone including Don Baseball was annoyed when he showed almost none of that potential this March.
And so no one forgets, Jerry got 20 at bats earlier this season and struck out 8 times.
I think the fan base needed new hope as Randy Choate, Brandon League and Shane Victorino are off to really slow starts with the Dodgers. Hanley has 11 RBI in 11 games although that doesn't matter to stat kids unless they like you, of course. Hanley is batting .238 as a Dodger but his OBP is on rise from his Miami output this year. He hasn't been great but 11 RBI in 11 games is a strong contribution.
The Dodgers need to launch a streak right now. They're in a good spot. They've at least temporarily fixed their gaping hole in the starting rotation. Won three, now the Rockies at home. New players. New hope. This is not the time to let anything get away. Bear down. Prison Rules!
Sands' past failures and the Dodgers continuing habit of doing what ever gyrations they can manage to keep old guys with contracts had me convinced that this move would not happen until September.
Gwynn had a least some value given his defensive prowess. But with Shane on board his role became first left-handed pinch hitter off the bench and that exposed Tony even more.
But what does Juan Uribe have to do to get "exposed."
Anyway, surprised or not, it's a good move. And hopefully it makes official the notion of not keeping marginal players because, well, their experienced or something.
That being said Jerry Sands is no mortal lock cinch to make all his new found supporters happy. He batted .200 when he was up earlier in the season and almost that in Spring Training. But like Dee, he had a good September last year.
That's why everyone including Don Baseball was annoyed when he showed almost none of that potential this March.
And so no one forgets, Jerry got 20 at bats earlier this season and struck out 8 times.
I think the fan base needed new hope as Randy Choate, Brandon League and Shane Victorino are off to really slow starts with the Dodgers. Hanley has 11 RBI in 11 games although that doesn't matter to stat kids unless they like you, of course. Hanley is batting .238 as a Dodger but his OBP is on rise from his Miami output this year. He hasn't been great but 11 RBI in 11 games is a strong contribution.
The Dodgers need to launch a streak right now. They're in a good spot. They've at least temporarily fixed their gaping hole in the starting rotation. Won three, now the Rockies at home. New players. New hope. This is not the time to let anything get away. Bear down. Prison Rules!
Sunday, August 5, 2012
What's It Goin To Be Jerry?
Sometimes when a once-highly-thought-of-prospect goes back down to the minors for the second or third time they never get back to the Big Show.
Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.
Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.
So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.
On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.
That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)
So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.
Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?
Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.
2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.
Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.
All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.
What do you do?
Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.
Forgotten for the next super prospect that DEFINITELY is going to make it.
Jerry Sands got sent down earlier this year after failing again. He was awful in Spring Training and given a second chance when people got hurt. Nothing.
So there he is in New Mexico batting .260 in a league where if you hit .260 there you need to start wondering about your next career move. It's not necessarily the end but you have little room for error from here on out.
On top of that the Dodgers were desperately wanting Sands to be their starting left fielder. Mattingly openly said that. The prior September had them penciling him in that spot. So EVERYBODY was disappointed or PISSED when it didn't happen.
That's some pressure on a young man. (Of course stat kids don't believe pressure has any affect on a player's numbers.)
So what happens? Jerry Sands, all of sudden, starts lighting up the Pacific Coast League. Just in the last 10 days or so.
Is this IT or just another false start? Do you bring him up and jettison one of the ANCIENTS? Do you wait until September? Will it be too late by September? Prospects almost never do anything in a Pennant Race. The prospect dilemma is difficult because they're always over valued and under deliver. But the Dodgers could use a good bat. What to do?
Everybody apart from managers and general managers overvalue prospects. Looking at the Dodgers prospects between 2000 and 2010 you can see the problem. On average 2 of the 10 become above average major leaguers. Imagine the odds for prospect 11-20.
2005 was a great year for Dodger prospects. The top ten included players like Billingsly, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Broxton and Russell Martin. None of those guys were the No. 1 prospect that year. That honor belonged to the astronomically over hyped Joel Guzman.
Most years are like 2002: Ricardo Rodriguez No. 1, Chen, Guzman, Diggens, Thurston, Kuo, Aybar, Rojas, Hanrahan and Jorge Nunez.
All the young guys they tried this year at LF and 1B - Sands, Van Slyke and ACastle - combined to bat about .200 and strike out seemingly almost every time up. Yet people still scream for them even though Loney is hitting .300 over the last month.
What do you do?
Wait to see what's happening with Sands In September.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Dodgers Might Have New No. 2
No not Joe Blanton. A lot of Stat Kids are saying Joe B. is just a little less good than The Dempster and look at all the prospects - that may never play in the Major Leagues - we saved. I hope they have fine lives as accountants. But I digress.
People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.
Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.
For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.
Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.
But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.
Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.
JOE BLANTON
Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.
Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.
I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.
Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.
So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak.
It's going to be close sports fans.
People are beginning to notice an actual change in C Bills. They don't cite the generalized, subjective advanced metric as the reason. They may quote numbers but they also include the only really important thing - THE WHY.
Advance metrics or any other number is totally useless and potentially dangerous if you don't have THE WHY.
For example noted commentators Jon Weisman and A.J. Ellis both put it very succinctly - C Bills is pounding the strike zone. When you pound the strike zone a lot of above average things can happen. You get ahead in counts, you set batters up for an out pitch, you don't go deep in counts, you get to pitch into the 7th inning and YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. Let me repeat that, YOU DON'T WALK PEOPLE. YOU GO DEEP INTO GAMES. ETC.
Another thing that can happen is someone hits a monster dinger off you because your pitch ended up right down the middle instead of on the inner half of the plate. But that's going to happen to everyone. If you're having a bad day with your command well you're going to potentially have a REALLY bad day.
But you can't change your strategy because of that inevitable outcome. The alternative is underachieving. C Bills is fortunate that he has the stuff that can survive his mistakes on many occasions. But people will hit him hard when he gets one where it shouldn't be. So tough. Live with it. Getting hit hard occasionally happens even within a good game. If C Bills continues with his current trend of pounding the zone he might even become the decent No. 2 that the Dodgers desperately need in this division race.
Stop drooling over Ks/9 amateur Stat Kids. No Walks. Pounding The Strike Zone. Getting Deep In The Game. All way more important.
JOE BLANTON
Funny to read where some of the Stat Kids were mystified with the notion that Blanton could have a good k/bb rate but give up so many home runs. That just didn't fit their little fantasy advanced metric paradigm. Stat Kids sure are cute.
Blanton is the definition of pounding the strike zone. But he doesn't have the stuff that C Bills has so on several occasions his fast ball will get hit into a different time zone. Blanton doesn't like giving up home runs but he's not going to stop doing the things he has to to keep pitching in the Major Leagues.
I've read where FanGraphs has discussed that notion. If amateur Stat Boys really read FanGraphs instead of pretending to, we might not have these misunderstandings.
Well now that the Phillies have come to their senses and are not trading Cliff Lee, Blanton works as a Plan, uh, C. He's fine, just not a No. 2 pitcher. Pretty much more of the same. But that's better than Barney Fife or the second coming of Mr. Ely.
So the gaping hole in the starting rotation is now just an annoying leak.
It's going to be close sports fans.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Stop Thinking And Just Do It
Look. You're making a big deal about saying you're in it to win it.
You blow the Dempster deal over a prospect and thereby tie a heavy lead weight to your leg while you're racing for a divisional title. You have no access to any other non-miracle needed pitchers. You've sunk a Pacific Ocean full of money into the team in the last few months. Are you telling me you're not going to buy the last expensive and risky ticket to a possible World Series?
Put the claim in on Cliff Lee and move on. The Phillies aren't going to let you have Lee for nothing without a really long and annoying negotiation. That buys you time at least.
And what if the Phillies surprise everyone and say, fine take him? Well, that's what you wanted. You didn't want the ba-zillion dollar contract you now own but that's the price of being a big boy. And the Guggenheim Partner group may be as a big a boy as you'll find in Major League Baseball ownership.
They understand the financial benefits of going deep in the playoffs. They're not afraid of payroll if it's going to reap other dollar rewards. These guys are investment bankers, financial killers roaming the corporate world looking to eat all the weak. Why did they overpay for the Dodgers? To make big time money down the road.
You think they're not going to push the button on Cliff Lee because he has an outrageous contract by our standards.
Ned and Stan aren't making the call on Cliff Lee. The Guggenheim owners are.
If you want to talk baseball let's do that. There are no free agents to speak of in the off season. Somebody from the minor leagues is going to have to play left field or first base next year. Or some much beloved prospects are going to have to be traded to get same.
This would be the Dodger's big free agent signing and you'd be hard pressed to find a better one. Yeah Lee's getting old and he's likely to be average or worse by the time the contract runs out. But there's a good chance the contract will look better than what Mr. Ethier's contract is going to look like then.
But if the Dodger claim Lee we're only half way there. The Phillies are going to want Zach Lee and others for the rights to the absurd contract they gave Lee. What do you do then? That one is hard because if you go all Dempster and screw it up and again, well, I'd have to fire you. Or the Guggenheim Partners will. Saving a buck or prospect but not winning is not a positive when you play with the big boys.
Anyway, we'll come to that bridge if and when we get there.
You blow the Dempster deal over a prospect and thereby tie a heavy lead weight to your leg while you're racing for a divisional title. You have no access to any other non-miracle needed pitchers. You've sunk a Pacific Ocean full of money into the team in the last few months. Are you telling me you're not going to buy the last expensive and risky ticket to a possible World Series?
Put the claim in on Cliff Lee and move on. The Phillies aren't going to let you have Lee for nothing without a really long and annoying negotiation. That buys you time at least.
And what if the Phillies surprise everyone and say, fine take him? Well, that's what you wanted. You didn't want the ba-zillion dollar contract you now own but that's the price of being a big boy. And the Guggenheim Partner group may be as a big a boy as you'll find in Major League Baseball ownership.
They understand the financial benefits of going deep in the playoffs. They're not afraid of payroll if it's going to reap other dollar rewards. These guys are investment bankers, financial killers roaming the corporate world looking to eat all the weak. Why did they overpay for the Dodgers? To make big time money down the road.
You think they're not going to push the button on Cliff Lee because he has an outrageous contract by our standards.
Ned and Stan aren't making the call on Cliff Lee. The Guggenheim owners are.
If you want to talk baseball let's do that. There are no free agents to speak of in the off season. Somebody from the minor leagues is going to have to play left field or first base next year. Or some much beloved prospects are going to have to be traded to get same.
This would be the Dodger's big free agent signing and you'd be hard pressed to find a better one. Yeah Lee's getting old and he's likely to be average or worse by the time the contract runs out. But there's a good chance the contract will look better than what Mr. Ethier's contract is going to look like then.
But if the Dodger claim Lee we're only half way there. The Phillies are going to want Zach Lee and others for the rights to the absurd contract they gave Lee. What do you do then? That one is hard because if you go all Dempster and screw it up and again, well, I'd have to fire you. Or the Guggenheim Partners will. Saving a buck or prospect but not winning is not a positive when you play with the big boys.
Anyway, we'll come to that bridge if and when we get there.
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